RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana056l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana056l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 821 1 Capotigaman (nass) WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 821 2 Canada White Spruce 1000 5010-6810 1832 1988 - 821 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 11 821261 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1924 1928 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 12 821262 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1941 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 16 821282 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1979 1979 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 18 821292 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1922 1926 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 26 821332 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1848 1852 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 821211 1852 1988 137 0.215 0.137 7.483 72.323 0.233 0.203 2 821212 1843 1988 146 0.198 0.092 4.996 42.951 0.243 0.279 3 821221 1849 1988 140 0.212 0.157 2.130 8.263 0.216 0.805 4 821222 1842 1988 147 0.217 0.157 5.313 39.152 0.228 0.642 5 821231 1866 1988 123 0.218 0.102 0.986 3.907 0.227 0.692 6 821232 1864 1988 125 0.241 0.105 0.739 3.559 0.234 0.653 7 821241 1877 1988 112 0.162 0.090 0.793 2.899 0.254 0.797 8 821242 1879 1988 110 0.190 0.112 0.868 3.539 0.262 0.815 9 821251 1867 1988 122 0.199 0.152 3.021 11.778 0.264 0.723 10 821252 1854 1988 135 0.143 0.058 1.660 9.118 0.226 0.583 11 821261 1835 1988 154 0.163 0.142 4.579 28.168 0.265 0.600 12 821262 1832 1988 157 0.176 0.159 4.940 33.845 0.325 0.527 13 821271 1862 1988 127 0.155 0.050 1.097 4.289 0.243 0.445 14 821272 1856 1988 133 0.148 0.045 0.620 3.034 0.209 0.562 15 821281 1846 1988 143 0.119 0.039 0.543 3.434 0.218 0.641 16 821282 1846 1988 143 0.129 0.041 0.905 3.833 0.202 0.567 17 821291 1868 1988 121 0.140 0.040 0.659 3.449 0.225 0.471 18 821292 1868 1988 121 0.140 0.078 2.387 9.713 0.253 0.653 19 821301 1847 1988 142 0.123 0.053 0.571 2.859 0.194 0.828 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 821302 1847 1988 142 0.142 0.077 1.476 5.010 0.187 0.833 21 821311 1866 1988 123 0.197 0.057 -0.124 2.513 0.209 0.578 22 821312 1853 1988 136 0.235 0.066 0.888 4.607 0.187 0.620 23 821321 1851 1988 138 0.198 0.104 1.202 4.071 0.254 0.705 24 821322 1844 1988 145 0.194 0.086 1.286 4.927 0.256 0.635 25 821331 1854 1988 135 0.120 0.049 2.536 10.642 0.199 0.662 26 821332 1834 1988 155 0.131 0.054 1.387 6.016 0.258 0.532 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 26 FROM 1832 TO 1988 157 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 134 0.173 0.088 2.036 12.611 0.234 0.617 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.038 0.041 1.894 16.926 0.031 0.154 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.169 0.082 1.244 4.767 0.231 0.638 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.060 0.059 1.743 7.103 0.045 0.143 MINIMUM VALUE 110 0.119 0.039 -0.124 2.513 0.187 0.203 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.140 0.053 0.793 3.539 0.209 0.562 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 0.199 0.112 2.536 10.642 0.254 0.705 MAXIMUM VALUE 151 0.241 0.159 7.483 72.323 0.325 0.833 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.262 0.257 0.014 -0.799 3.751 -0.548 0.865 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.548 SERIES 821242 AND 821302 110 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.865 SERIES 821321 AND 821322 138 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 81.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 171. 325. 325. RBAR 0.239 0.171 0.142 SDEV 0.217 0.287 0.252 SERR 0.017 0.016 0.014 EPS 0.888 0.843 0.811 NSS 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1988 157 0.160 0.039 0.076 2.736 0.144 0.669 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.666 0.435 -0.007 89 68 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.58 1.94 1.01 1.21 3.15 72.14 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.96 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 136. 20. 110. 123. 143. 157. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.665 0.635 0.615 0.532 0.496 0.449 0.434 0.433 0.439 0.384 PACF 0.665 0.345 0.222 0.014 0.020 -0.007 0.056 0.090 0.104 -0.050 95% C.L. 0.160 0.219 0.262 0.296 0.320 0.339 0.354 0.367 0.380 0.392 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.555 0.364 0.234 0.243 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 821211 1 0.22382608 0.01018403 0.00000000 0.09476288 2 821212 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00044669 0.23105054 3 821221 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202945 0.35500515 4 821222 1 0.46478060 0.04801210 0.00000000 0.15257396 5 821231 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00166011 0.32081300 6 821232 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00183459 0.35621935 7 821241 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00152488 0.07571911 8 821242 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00196610 0.08079065 9 821251 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093348 0.25683513 10 821252 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00021403 0.15759094 11 821261 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00128084 0.25852424 12 821262 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00075240 0.23394518 13 821271 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00070749 0.20016123 14 821272 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045495 0.17822625 15 821281 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045311 0.15157491 16 821282 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00036757 0.15467905 17 821291 1 0.04893412 0.03329701 0.00000000 0.12785506 18 821292 1 0.16350901 0.03167198 0.00000000 0.09597535 19 821301 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083767 0.18264009 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 821302 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112884 0.22261313 21 821311 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00089326 0.25229242 22 821312 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00074455 0.28592810 23 821321 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00164228 0.31225431 24 821322 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00112707 0.27662069 25 821331 1 0.21694711 0.09280375 0.00000000 0.10332689 26 821332 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00061664 0.17975898 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 821211 1852 1988 137 1.000 0.485 5.058 41.795 0.231 0.222 2 821212 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.432 3.992 30.700 0.242 0.307 3 821221 1849 1988 140 0.970 0.576 3.374 15.402 0.216 0.791 4 821222 1842 1988 147 1.001 0.338 1.817 11.894 0.227 0.467 5 821231 1866 1988 123 0.989 0.365 1.507 5.307 0.226 0.590 6 821232 1864 1988 125 0.991 0.339 1.737 6.866 0.233 0.425 7 821241 1877 1988 112 0.991 0.484 1.844 7.699 0.252 0.626 8 821242 1879 1988 110 0.973 0.463 1.276 5.057 0.261 0.718 9 821251 1867 1988 122 0.992 0.721 3.213 13.069 0.262 0.713 10 821252 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.407 1.850 9.813 0.224 0.578 11 821261 1835 1988 154 1.009 0.694 4.533 29.688 0.272 0.562 12 821262 1832 1988 157 0.990 0.833 5.304 38.658 0.331 0.492 13 821271 1862 1988 127 0.999 0.273 1.165 4.079 0.241 0.247 14 821272 1856 1988 133 0.999 0.278 0.638 3.009 0.208 0.471 15 821281 1846 1988 143 0.999 0.288 0.561 3.300 0.217 0.536 16 821282 1846 1988 143 0.999 0.306 1.267 5.077 0.202 0.578 17 821291 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.275 0.812 3.899 0.224 0.398 18 821292 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.417 1.325 5.301 0.250 0.536 19 821301 1847 1988 142 0.991 0.309 0.359 3.107 0.194 0.664 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 821302 1847 1988 142 0.997 0.348 0.786 4.102 0.187 0.674 21 821311 1866 1988 123 0.999 0.255 0.530 3.439 0.207 0.440 22 821312 1853 1988 136 0.999 0.245 0.754 3.925 0.186 0.496 23 821321 1851 1988 138 0.996 0.363 1.120 4.453 0.253 0.473 24 821322 1844 1988 145 0.997 0.346 1.327 6.005 0.255 0.451 25 821331 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.236 0.716 3.704 0.195 0.389 26 821332 1834 1988 155 0.997 0.355 1.899 7.596 0.261 0.394 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 0.995 0.401 1.876 10.652 0.233 0.509 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.008 0.154 1.447 11.328 0.032 0.142 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.999 0.351 1.326 5.304 0.229 0.494 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.008 0.175 1.113 7.969 0.045 0.164 MINIMUM VALUE 110 0.970 0.236 0.359 3.009 0.186 0.222 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.991 0.288 0.786 3.925 0.208 0.425 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 1.000 0.463 1.899 11.894 0.253 0.590 MAXIMUM VALUE 157 1.009 0.833 5.304 41.795 0.331 0.791 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 821211 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 821212 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 821221 -67 93 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 821222 -67 98 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 821231 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 821232 -67 83 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 821241 -67 75 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 821242 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 821251 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 821252 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 821261 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 821262 -67 105 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 821271 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 821272 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 821281 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 821282 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 821291 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 821292 -67 81 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 821301 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 821302 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 821311 -67 82 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 821312 -67 91 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 821321 -67 92 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 24 821322 -67 97 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 25 821331 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 26 821332 -67 103 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 821211 1852 1988 137 0.993 0.456 5.654 48.771 0.231 0.156 2 821212 1843 1988 146 0.992 0.410 4.917 40.917 0.242 0.219 3 821221 1849 1988 140 0.990 0.424 2.519 9.997 0.214 0.621 4 821222 1842 1988 147 0.994 0.295 2.473 17.573 0.227 0.340 5 821231 1866 1988 123 0.995 0.289 0.956 3.683 0.226 0.425 6 821232 1864 1988 125 0.996 0.279 1.106 4.664 0.233 0.262 7 821241 1877 1988 112 0.978 0.365 3.263 19.306 0.250 0.398 8 821242 1879 1988 110 0.990 0.329 1.070 4.566 0.262 0.436 9 821251 1867 1988 122 0.993 0.477 2.249 8.688 0.264 0.572 10 821252 1854 1988 135 0.986 0.299 2.115 10.989 0.224 0.288 11 821261 1835 1988 154 0.983 0.561 4.531 29.666 0.272 0.463 12 821262 1832 1988 157 0.993 0.590 4.264 30.266 0.332 0.390 13 821271 1862 1988 127 0.999 0.266 1.188 4.234 0.241 0.213 14 821272 1856 1988 133 0.996 0.247 0.667 3.080 0.208 0.348 15 821281 1846 1988 143 0.997 0.269 0.502 3.101 0.216 0.457 16 821282 1846 1988 143 0.998 0.290 1.312 5.267 0.202 0.541 17 821291 1868 1988 121 0.998 0.262 0.678 3.510 0.224 0.356 18 821292 1868 1988 121 0.991 0.366 1.300 5.102 0.249 0.457 19 821301 1847 1988 142 0.992 0.244 0.577 4.655 0.195 0.472 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 821302 1847 1988 142 0.985 0.272 0.761 4.058 0.187 0.548 21 821311 1866 1988 123 0.999 0.246 0.572 3.487 0.207 0.403 22 821312 1853 1988 136 0.998 0.229 0.827 3.860 0.186 0.442 23 821321 1851 1988 138 0.995 0.327 0.701 3.313 0.253 0.378 24 821322 1844 1988 145 0.994 0.302 0.915 5.013 0.254 0.341 25 821331 1854 1988 135 0.999 0.213 0.494 3.638 0.196 0.278 26 821332 1834 1988 155 0.997 0.316 1.702 7.509 0.261 0.306 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 0.993 0.332 1.820 11.112 0.233 0.389 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.005 0.099 1.511 12.564 0.032 0.115 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 0.994 0.297 1.147 4.838 0.229 0.394 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.007 0.100 1.773 7.305 0.045 0.151 MINIMUM VALUE 110 0.978 0.213 0.494 3.080 0.186 0.156 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 0.991 0.266 0.701 3.683 0.208 0.306 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 0.997 0.366 2.473 10.989 0.253 0.457 MAXIMUM VALUE 157 0.999 0.590 5.654 48.771 0.332 0.621 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.190 0.149 0.008 0.378 3.502 -0.207 0.774 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.207 SERIES 821221 AND 821251 122 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.774 SERIES 821321 AND 821322 138 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 81.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 171. 325. 325. RBAR 0.232 0.196 0.181 SDEV 0.194 0.203 0.209 SERR 0.015 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.884 0.864 0.852 NSS 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1988 157 0.958 0.174 0.743 4.753 0.153 0.337 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.364 0.157 0.080 75 82 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.50 1.56 1.01 1.13 2.68 34.24 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.09 0.00 0.88 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.335 0.196 0.206 0.088 0.026 -0.074 -0.163 -0.124 -0.093 -0.172 PACF 0.335 0.094 0.131 -0.031 -0.033 -0.117 -0.135 -0.025 0.011 -0.094 95% C.L. 0.160 0.177 0.182 0.188 0.189 0.189 0.190 0.193 0.195 0.196 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.137 0.360 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.292 0.152 0.158 0.045 0.019 -0.013 -0.155 -0.122 -0.114 -0.232 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.292 2 0.271 0.073 3 0.263 0.044 0.105 4 0.267 0.046 0.115 -0.038 5 0.267 0.047 0.115 -0.036 -0.007 6 0.267 0.046 0.119 -0.035 0.002 -0.034 7 0.262 0.046 0.114 -0.016 0.009 0.009 -0.159 8 0.255 0.046 0.114 -0.016 0.014 0.011 -0.148 -0.044 9 0.253 0.040 0.114 -0.016 0.013 0.016 -0.145 -0.032 -0.047 10 0.245 0.034 0.091 -0.013 0.015 0.013 -0.127 -0.026 -0.006 -0.161 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1190.50 1178.47 1179.63 1179.90 1181.67 1183.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1185.48 1183.46 1185.16 1186.82 1184.67 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.292 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 8.55 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 109.35 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.292 0.086 0.025 0.007 0.002 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 821211 1 0.037 0.156 2 821212 1 0.077 0.219 3 821221 1 0.399 0.632 4 821222 1 0.124 0.341 5 821231 1 0.209 0.443 6 821232 1 0.100 0.266 7 821241 1 0.167 0.408 8 821242 1 0.218 0.462 9 821251 1 0.377 0.578 10 821252 1 0.092 0.293 11 821261 1 0.214 0.463 12 821262 1 0.159 0.396 13 821271 1 0.048 0.214 14 821272 1 0.145 0.350 15 821281 1 0.226 0.462 16 821282 1 0.312 0.541 17 821291 1 0.134 0.364 18 821292 1 0.226 0.462 19 821301 1 0.235 0.479 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 821302 1 0.321 0.553 21 821311 1 0.169 0.410 22 821312 1 0.203 0.444 23 821321 1 0.249 0.380 24 821322 1 0.166 0.342 25 821331 1 0.079 0.280 26 821332 1 0.102 0.308 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.184 0.394 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.095 0.117 MEDIAN 1 0.168 0.402 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.124 0.154 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.037 0.156 LOWER HINGE 1 0.102 0.308 UPPER HINGE 1 0.226 0.462 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.399 0.632 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 821211 1852 1988 137 1.000 0.450 6.020 53.470 0.254 -0.017 2 821212 1843 1988 146 1.000 0.400 5.238 45.992 0.276 -0.038 3 821221 1849 1988 140 1.001 0.325 1.022 6.107 0.307 0.026 4 821222 1842 1988 147 1.000 0.277 3.076 22.731 0.254 0.029 5 821231 1866 1988 123 1.000 0.257 0.843 3.783 0.283 -0.069 6 821232 1864 1988 125 1.000 0.269 1.318 5.183 0.263 -0.044 7 821241 1877 1988 112 1.000 0.332 3.117 18.557 0.293 0.002 8 821242 1879 1988 110 1.000 0.289 1.032 4.056 0.316 -0.059 9 821251 1867 1988 122 1.003 0.380 1.305 6.690 0.390 -0.131 10 821252 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.285 2.515 13.782 0.261 -0.028 11 821261 1835 1988 154 1.007 0.475 3.357 18.269 0.340 0.110 12 821262 1832 1988 157 1.000 0.541 3.951 27.604 0.408 0.013 13 821271 1862 1988 127 1.000 0.260 1.297 4.593 0.265 0.010 14 821272 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.231 0.894 3.409 0.248 -0.058 15 821281 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.238 0.446 3.133 0.262 -0.052 16 821282 1846 1988 143 1.000 0.244 1.548 7.042 0.264 -0.089 17 821291 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.244 0.752 3.676 0.268 -0.011 18 821292 1868 1988 121 1.000 0.324 1.350 6.238 0.310 -0.060 19 821301 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.214 0.842 4.770 0.237 -0.028 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 821302 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.226 1.071 4.286 0.245 -0.084 21 821311 1866 1988 123 1.000 0.225 0.721 3.417 0.249 -0.009 22 821312 1853 1988 136 1.000 0.205 0.411 3.525 0.228 -0.036 23 821321 1851 1988 138 1.000 0.302 0.713 3.736 0.318 -0.134 24 821322 1844 1988 145 1.000 0.284 1.087 5.443 0.301 -0.081 25 821331 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.204 0.677 3.826 0.221 -0.009 26 821332 1834 1988 155 1.000 0.301 1.552 7.158 0.302 -0.029 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 135 1.000 0.299 1.775 11.172 0.283 -0.034 STANDARD DEVIATION 12 0.002 0.086 1.483 13.168 0.045 0.052 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 136 1.000 0.280 1.192 5.313 0.267 -0.032 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 20 0.000 0.086 1.673 10.000 0.053 0.051 MINIMUM VALUE 110 1.000 0.204 0.411 3.133 0.221 -0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 123 1.000 0.238 0.842 3.783 0.254 -0.060 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 143 1.000 0.325 2.515 13.782 0.307 -0.009 MAXIMUM VALUE 157 1.007 0.541 6.020 53.470 0.408 0.110 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 325 0.212 0.123 0.007 0.747 5.029 -0.038 0.800 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.038 SERIES 821222 AND 821261 147 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.800 SERIES 821211 AND 821212 137 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 81.35 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1890. 1915. 1940. CORR 171. 325. 325. RBAR 0.261 0.245 0.217 SDEV 0.151 0.154 0.158 SERR 0.012 0.009 0.009 EPS 0.899 0.894 0.878 NSS 25.3 26.0 26.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1988 157 0.971 0.157 0.792 4.680 0.179 -0.097 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.324 0.145 0.060 83 74 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.47 1.41 1.00 1.13 2.54 20.10 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.07 0.00 0.89 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.096 0.040 0.161 -0.002 0.046 -0.031 -0.109 -0.026 0.009 -0.129 PACF -0.096 0.031 0.169 0.029 0.036 -0.054 -0.132 -0.065 0.024 -0.085 95% C.L. 0.160 0.161 0.161 0.165 0.165 0.166 0.166 0.168 0.168 0.168 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.009 0.048 0.168 0.020 0.044 -0.038 -0.118 -0.037 -0.008 -0.135 PACF 0.009 0.047 0.167 0.016 0.029 -0.070 -0.132 -0.049 0.020 -0.091 95% C.L. 0.160 0.160 0.160 0.164 0.164 0.165 0.165 0.167 0.167 0.167 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.003 0.009 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1832 1988 157 0.971 0.166 0.704 4.636 0.146 0.323 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.321 0.179 0.203 0.080 0.040 -0.059 -0.136 -0.088 -0.072 -0.148 PACF 0.321 0.085 0.138 -0.033 -0.009 -0.109 -0.113 -0.012 0.005 -0.088 95% C.L. 0.160 0.175 0.180 0.186 0.186 0.187 0.187 0.190 0.191 0.191 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.123 0.342 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.15 MINUTES