RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana051x.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana051x.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 818 1 Mountain Lake (UFE) DENSITY_MAXIMUM PCGL - 818 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1794 1988 - 818 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 818032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 818051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 818101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.740 0.056 -0.570 3.555 0.076 0.241 2 818012 1926 1988 63 0.701 0.053 -1.435 6.124 0.086 -0.165 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.715 0.064 0.083 3.582 0.071 0.413 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.693 0.072 0.209 3.271 0.075 0.551 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.697 0.075 -0.731 3.131 0.106 0.224 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.703 0.085 -0.398 3.067 0.117 0.296 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.696 0.087 0.242 2.428 0.103 0.460 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.700 0.072 -0.621 3.512 0.108 0.161 9 818051 1847 1988 142 0.689 0.062 -0.849 4.159 0.089 0.251 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.726 0.057 -0.370 3.071 0.082 0.106 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.708 0.095 0.165 2.634 0.125 0.331 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.679 0.093 0.059 2.447 0.118 0.418 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.770 0.049 -0.459 3.051 0.076 -0.022 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.717 0.054 -0.371 3.293 0.083 0.112 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.766 0.057 0.107 4.270 0.078 0.049 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.757 0.060 -0.250 2.911 0.084 0.144 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.672 0.076 -0.325 3.090 0.102 0.404 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.781 0.060 -0.656 3.358 0.094 -0.144 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.775 0.056 -0.371 2.879 0.074 0.216 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.718 0.079 -0.551 3.389 0.071 0.665 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.717 0.060 -0.759 3.209 0.094 0.058 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.709 0.070 0.098 2.316 0.081 0.460 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.681 0.064 -0.525 2.806 0.071 0.493 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1794 TO 1988 195 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.718 0.068 -0.360 3.285 0.090 0.249 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.032 0.013 0.412 0.785 0.017 0.217 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.709 0.064 -0.371 3.131 0.084 0.241 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.037 0.018 0.666 0.555 0.027 0.307 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.672 0.049 -1.435 2.316 0.071 -0.165 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.696 0.057 -0.595 2.895 0.076 0.109 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 0.733 0.075 0.071 3.450 0.103 0.416 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 0.781 0.095 0.242 6.124 0.125 0.665 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.465 0.166 0.010 -0.302 2.832 -0.079 0.842 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.079 SERIES 818041 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.842 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.304 0.275 0.398 0.560 0.526 SDEV 0.333 0.248 0.204 0.163 0.179 SERR 0.086 0.031 0.020 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.834 0.861 0.929 0.965 0.962 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.711 0.046 -0.478 3.428 0.066 0.109 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.071 -0.031 0.080 44 151 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.26 0.73 1.01 1.05 1.79 5.62 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 58. 63. 107. 166. 195. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.108 0.182 0.069 0.208 0.048 0.082 0.078 0.115 0.026 0.040 PACF 0.108 0.173 0.035 0.175 0.000 0.017 0.051 0.059 -0.016 -0.005 95% C.L. 0.143 0.145 0.150 0.150 0.156 0.156 0.157 0.158 0.160 0.160 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.045 0.090 0.178 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00100000 0.77330768 2 818012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00011425 0.70460832 3 818021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00022107 0.69300133 4 818022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00009122 0.70116365 5 818031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00010700 0.70701098 6 818032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00083140 0.75035155 7 818041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00117426 0.60585654 8 818042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00028748 0.72761238 9 818051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00038231 0.71656376 10 818052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005069 0.72916299 11 818061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00045842 0.74305165 12 818062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143000 0.77513331 13 818081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00002965 0.76846075 14 818082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00013169 0.70852625 15 818101 1 0.18619309 0.20610319 0.00000000 0.75686163 16 818102 1 0.15262827 0.00253343 0.00000000 0.63156039 17 818111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00068972 0.62023717 18 818121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00026299 0.79402059 19 818122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00021468 0.75656694 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00110863 0.78970963 21 818132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00058110 0.68687040 22 818141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00046717 0.66570890 23 818142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073257 0.62616658 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.071 -0.606 3.181 0.075 0.116 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.075 -1.352 5.947 0.085 -0.166 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.087 -0.127 3.982 0.071 0.393 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.000 0.104 0.285 3.236 0.074 0.544 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.108 -0.677 3.073 0.105 0.214 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.115 -0.219 2.947 0.117 0.196 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.100 0.099 2.802 0.102 0.197 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.101 -0.501 3.439 0.107 0.100 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.087 -0.735 3.882 0.088 0.184 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.079 -0.351 3.027 0.081 0.103 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.132 0.274 2.856 0.124 0.296 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.111 0.038 2.303 0.118 0.114 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.064 -0.470 3.060 0.075 -0.022 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.075 -0.380 3.451 0.082 0.104 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.066 -0.458 3.204 0.078 -0.215 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.077 -0.190 2.952 0.084 0.083 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.104 -0.379 2.955 0.102 0.294 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.077 -0.493 3.187 0.093 -0.162 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.071 -0.449 3.125 0.073 0.188 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.094 -0.590 2.981 0.071 0.537 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.081 -0.584 3.223 0.093 -0.006 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.093 -0.036 2.551 0.080 0.401 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.082 -0.260 2.834 0.071 0.364 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.089 -0.355 3.226 0.089 0.168 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.018 0.361 0.696 0.017 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.087 -0.380 3.073 0.084 0.184 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.027 0.384 0.280 0.027 0.204 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.064 -1.352 2.303 0.071 -0.215 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.076 -0.542 2.950 0.075 0.092 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.103 -0.158 3.229 0.102 0.295 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.132 0.285 5.947 0.124 0.544 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 818012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 818031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 818032 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 818041 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 818042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 818051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 818052 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 818061 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 818062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 818081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 818082 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 818101 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 818102 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 818111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 818121 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 818122 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 818132 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.061 -0.604 3.942 0.075 -0.233 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.074 -1.293 6.059 0.085 -0.216 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.078 -0.145 3.489 0.071 0.214 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.999 0.092 0.062 3.111 0.074 0.407 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.103 -0.694 3.148 0.105 0.120 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.999 0.105 -0.388 2.679 0.117 0.013 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.096 -0.033 2.737 0.103 0.129 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.098 -0.465 3.561 0.107 0.019 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.084 -0.671 3.879 0.088 0.096 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.072 -0.447 2.899 0.081 -0.102 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.999 0.123 0.167 2.623 0.124 0.187 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.108 -0.042 2.257 0.118 0.068 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.064 -0.492 3.063 0.075 -0.032 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.073 -0.406 3.565 0.082 0.062 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.066 -0.523 3.308 0.078 -0.226 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.075 -0.236 2.897 0.084 0.036 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.101 -0.407 3.027 0.102 0.256 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.075 -0.471 3.181 0.093 -0.217 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.065 -0.482 2.866 0.073 0.003 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.999 0.075 -0.267 3.613 0.071 0.301 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.077 -0.660 3.466 0.093 -0.097 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.999 0.077 -0.233 3.060 0.080 0.131 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.068 -0.065 3.010 0.071 0.048 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.083 -0.382 3.280 0.089 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.017 0.313 0.731 0.017 0.172 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.077 -0.407 3.111 0.084 0.048 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.024 0.319 0.627 0.027 0.194 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.999 0.061 -1.293 2.257 0.071 -0.233 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.072 -0.507 2.898 0.075 -0.065 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.097 -0.189 3.525 0.102 0.130 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.123 0.167 6.059 0.124 0.407 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.537 0.131 0.008 -0.270 2.693 0.116 0.890 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.116 SERIES 818022 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.890 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.334 0.296 0.438 0.589 0.534 SDEV 0.330 0.257 0.192 0.141 0.149 SERR 0.085 0.032 0.019 0.010 0.010 EPS 0.852 0.873 0.939 0.969 0.963 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.060 -0.668 3.459 0.066 -0.033 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.080 -0.028 0.086 57 138 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.17 0.41 1.01 1.07 1.48 75.76 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.033 0.087 -0.067 0.097 -0.067 -0.016 -0.013 0.007 -0.049 -0.052 PACF -0.033 0.086 -0.062 0.087 -0.053 -0.038 0.007 -0.005 -0.042 -0.054 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.164 0.123 -0.101 0.095 -0.096 0.024 -0.025 0.045 -0.040 -0.029 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.164 2 -0.148 0.099 3 -0.141 0.089 -0.069 4 -0.137 0.083 -0.060 0.061 5 -0.133 0.080 -0.055 0.053 -0.060 6 -0.134 0.081 -0.056 0.055 -0.062 -0.019 7 -0.134 0.081 -0.056 0.055 -0.062 -0.019 0.001 8 -0.134 0.081 -0.055 0.053 -0.061 -0.021 0.005 0.027 9 -0.134 0.081 -0.055 0.052 -0.060 -0.022 0.007 0.024 -0.019 10 -0.135 0.083 -0.055 0.051 -0.063 -0.019 0.004 0.029 -0.026 -0.053 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1077.25 1073.93 1074.01 1075.09 1076.35 1077.66 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1079.59 1081.59 1083.44 1085.37 1086.82 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 1 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.164 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 2.70 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 102.77 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 1) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.164 0.027 -0.004 0.001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 818011 1 0.058 -0.240 2 818012 1 0.061 -0.218 3 818021 1 0.069 0.215 4 818022 1 0.254 0.410 5 818031 1 0.021 0.121 6 818032 1 0.027 0.013 7 818041 1 0.056 0.130 8 818042 1 0.031 0.019 9 818051 1 0.038 0.097 10 818052 1 0.063 -0.103 11 818061 1 0.088 0.188 12 818062 1 0.035 0.068 13 818081 1 0.015 -0.032 14 818082 1 0.019 0.062 15 818101 1 0.054 -0.227 16 818102 1 0.028 0.037 17 818111 1 0.066 0.257 18 818121 1 0.048 -0.219 19 818122 1 0.014 0.003 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 818131 1 0.120 0.302 21 818132 1 0.010 -0.098 22 818141 1 0.048 0.131 23 818142 1 0.020 0.049 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 1 0.054 0.042 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.051 0.174 MEDIAN 1 0.048 0.049 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.038 0.195 MINIMUM VALUE 1 0.010 -0.240 LOWER HINGE 1 0.024 -0.065 UPPER HINGE 1 0.062 0.130 MAXIMUM VALUE 1 0.254 0.410 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.059 -0.742 3.893 0.066 -0.001 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.072 -1.322 6.795 0.075 -0.027 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.076 -0.285 4.082 0.078 -0.033 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.000 0.084 -0.144 3.570 0.092 -0.128 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.102 -0.661 3.157 0.112 -0.010 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.105 -0.393 2.678 0.118 -0.002 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.095 -0.052 2.669 0.111 -0.026 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.098 -0.463 3.555 0.108 -0.003 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.083 -0.640 3.793 0.092 -0.015 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.071 -0.401 2.765 0.076 0.023 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.121 0.192 2.596 0.139 -0.043 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.108 -0.028 2.276 0.123 -0.012 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.064 -0.488 3.039 0.074 0.004 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.073 -0.394 3.511 0.085 -0.008 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.064 -0.480 3.076 0.070 0.012 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.075 -0.240 2.876 0.086 -0.006 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.098 -0.221 2.688 0.113 -0.002 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.073 -0.365 3.208 0.083 0.000 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.065 -0.483 2.868 0.073 0.000 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.071 -0.507 3.760 0.082 -0.053 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.077 -0.604 3.473 0.088 0.000 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.076 -0.239 3.101 0.086 -0.023 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.068 -0.057 3.043 0.073 -0.007 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.082 -0.392 3.325 0.091 -0.016 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.017 0.306 0.890 0.020 0.030 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.076 -0.394 3.101 0.086 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.025 0.267 0.746 0.034 0.024 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.059 -1.322 2.276 0.066 -0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.071 -0.497 2.817 0.076 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.096 -0.230 3.563 0.110 -0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.121 0.192 6.795 0.139 0.023 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.544 0.114 0.007 -0.259 3.075 0.221 0.890 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.221 SERIES 818012 AND 818062 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.890 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.319 0.303 0.466 0.606 0.546 SDEV 0.308 0.248 0.166 0.117 0.137 SERR 0.079 0.030 0.016 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.843 0.877 0.945 0.971 0.965 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.059 -0.665 3.477 0.067 -0.117 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.101 -0.036 0.093 47 148 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.15 0.40 1.01 1.08 1.48 26.38 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.116 0.072 -0.091 0.119 -0.076 -0.014 -0.010 0.023 -0.048 -0.043 PACF -0.116 0.059 -0.078 0.099 -0.045 -0.046 0.008 0.005 -0.039 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.149 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.150 0.150 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.017 -0.116 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.049 -0.072 0.103 -0.067 -0.025 -0.008 0.016 -0.051 -0.055 PACF 0.007 0.049 -0.073 0.103 -0.064 -0.038 0.014 -0.002 -0.044 -0.052 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.002 0.007 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.060 -0.647 3.472 0.069 -0.168 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.167 0.090 -0.102 0.126 -0.080 -0.008 -0.012 0.025 -0.047 -0.038 PACF -0.167 0.064 -0.080 0.096 -0.038 -0.048 0.004 0.008 -0.036 -0.051 95% C.L. 0.143 0.147 0.148 0.150 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 0.153 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.032 -0.168 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.27 MINUTES