RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana051w.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana051w.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 818 1 Mountain Lake (UFE) WIDTH_RING PCGL - 818 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1794 1988 - 818 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 818032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 818051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 818101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.183 0.342 -0.186 2.910 0.216 0.599 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.912 0.553 0.712 3.604 0.242 0.414 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.634 0.540 1.188 3.473 0.274 0.908 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.582 0.400 1.179 4.329 0.272 0.858 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.757 0.362 0.576 2.806 0.206 0.866 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.669 0.223 -0.297 2.487 0.194 0.748 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.774 0.347 1.506 7.449 0.221 0.721 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.698 0.252 0.700 3.988 0.213 0.720 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.166 0.570 0.760 2.454 0.193 0.861 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.087 0.403 0.417 2.636 0.191 0.824 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.534 0.188 0.029 2.572 0.207 0.700 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.490 0.231 -0.003 2.059 0.219 0.811 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.528 0.134 0.408 2.966 0.165 0.646 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.565 0.254 -0.034 2.384 0.166 0.873 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.740 0.323 0.653 2.589 0.202 0.817 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.758 0.212 -0.182 3.285 0.205 0.641 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.544 0.268 0.634 2.716 0.176 0.923 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.935 0.278 0.572 2.452 0.179 0.712 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.809 0.307 0.979 4.255 0.187 0.810 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.639 0.231 0.591 2.907 0.185 0.795 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.630 0.198 0.372 2.699 0.187 0.708 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.671 0.470 0.911 3.107 0.214 0.941 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.885 0.347 -0.014 2.972 0.175 0.855 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1794 TO 1988 195 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.791 0.323 0.499 3.178 0.204 0.772 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.314 0.121 0.485 1.106 0.029 0.122 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.698 0.307 0.576 2.907 0.202 0.810 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.241 0.150 0.723 0.799 0.029 0.149 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.490 0.134 -0.297 2.059 0.165 0.414 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.606 0.231 0.013 2.581 0.186 0.710 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 0.847 0.381 0.736 3.379 0.215 0.859 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.912 0.570 1.506 7.449 0.274 0.941 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.166 0.422 0.027 -0.218 1.959 -0.698 0.922 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.698 SERIES 818021 AND 818062 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.922 SERIES 818021 AND 818022 186 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.277 0.270 0.395 0.226 0.146 SDEV 0.231 0.309 0.241 0.369 0.425 SERR 0.060 0.038 0.024 0.025 0.028 EPS 0.814 0.858 0.928 0.865 0.797 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.637 0.237 0.164 2.477 0.178 0.849 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.746 0.478 -0.011 54 141 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.40 1.06 1.01 1.18 2.24 12.08 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.09 0.00 0.86 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 58. 63. 107. 166. 195. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.844 0.807 0.794 0.729 0.721 0.719 0.689 0.690 0.702 0.682 PACF 0.844 0.329 0.232 -0.066 0.114 0.128 0.024 0.073 0.127 0.021 95% C.L. 0.143 0.223 0.277 0.320 0.352 0.381 0.408 0.431 0.454 0.475 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.781 0.462 0.242 0.225 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00749301 1.43034613 2 818012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00060580 1.89267790 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00586180 0.03374949 5 818031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00418477 0.35127914 6 818032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00284243 0.50765234 7 818041 1 1.61838412 0.13394007 0.00000000 0.69972759 8 818042 1 0.92449981 0.10682384 0.00000000 0.65452415 9 818051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00993847 0.45739534 10 818052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00933745 0.59168679 11 818061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00215113 0.69779074 12 818062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00492588 0.82025975 13 818081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00277574 0.68055552 14 818082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00408955 0.84349698 15 818101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00479426 0.52028155 16 818102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00044907 0.72141272 17 818111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00135827 0.44245726 18 818121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00669485 0.60741627 19 818122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00443908 0.42712831 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00181417 0.75638902 21 818132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00216250 0.74293548 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00676646 0.38062879 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.998 0.269 -0.006 2.776 0.213 0.553 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.289 0.720 3.608 0.238 0.407 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.002 0.410 0.972 4.611 0.274 0.620 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.219 1.081 3.737 20.325 0.271 0.666 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.007 0.364 0.055 2.923 0.204 0.730 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.002 0.306 -0.628 2.953 0.192 0.672 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.350 0.161 2.205 0.219 0.689 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.316 0.265 3.240 0.212 0.649 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.006 0.335 1.170 5.669 0.193 0.687 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.267 0.255 2.919 0.188 0.576 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.995 0.310 0.332 2.871 0.205 0.637 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.983 0.274 0.441 2.991 0.216 0.574 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.189 0.117 2.543 0.164 0.420 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.981 0.362 0.404 2.413 0.164 0.837 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.998 0.387 0.448 2.187 0.198 0.765 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.280 -0.104 3.522 0.204 0.629 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.002 0.477 0.454 2.483 0.175 0.908 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.212 0.490 2.774 0.178 0.367 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.003 0.263 0.472 3.166 0.186 0.569 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.998 0.339 0.529 2.767 0.183 0.759 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.999 0.300 0.597 3.136 0.185 0.649 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.002 0.336 0.747 4.658 0.213 0.677 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.992 0.245 0.204 3.394 0.174 0.631 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.008 0.346 0.514 3.919 0.202 0.638 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.046 0.172 0.794 3.671 0.029 0.127 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.310 0.441 2.953 0.198 0.649 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.004 0.085 0.381 0.688 0.029 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.981 0.189 -0.628 2.187 0.164 0.367 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.998 0.271 0.183 2.771 0.184 0.575 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.002 0.356 0.563 3.458 0.213 0.688 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.219 1.081 3.737 20.325 0.274 0.908 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 818012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 818031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 818032 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 818041 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 818042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 818051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 818052 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 818061 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 818062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 818081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 818082 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 818101 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 818102 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 818111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 818121 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 818122 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 818132 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.997 0.213 0.150 2.794 0.213 0.182 2 818012 1926 1988 63 0.998 0.221 0.228 2.689 0.237 0.128 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.998 0.400 0.885 4.324 0.274 0.611 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.995 0.431 1.438 6.715 0.270 0.601 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.996 0.344 -0.063 2.516 0.204 0.717 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.990 0.270 -0.248 2.779 0.191 0.611 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.991 0.271 0.849 4.545 0.219 0.419 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.998 0.313 0.837 4.868 0.212 0.620 9 818051 1847 1988 142 0.989 0.249 0.690 4.242 0.193 0.454 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.996 0.246 0.098 2.611 0.188 0.526 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.995 0.234 -0.108 2.753 0.205 0.413 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.995 0.222 0.106 2.625 0.215 0.320 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.999 0.185 0.098 2.592 0.164 0.387 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.997 0.242 1.080 5.327 0.164 0.550 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.983 0.263 -0.015 2.245 0.199 0.541 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.997 0.272 0.402 4.701 0.204 0.594 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.975 0.331 0.192 2.733 0.174 0.815 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.997 0.183 0.331 2.631 0.178 0.205 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.996 0.233 0.235 3.093 0.186 0.471 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.996 0.243 0.586 3.293 0.182 0.528 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.995 0.239 0.695 3.307 0.186 0.432 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.997 0.313 0.313 3.613 0.213 0.641 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.997 0.215 0.184 3.075 0.174 0.485 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.994 0.267 0.390 3.481 0.202 0.489 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.006 0.063 0.422 1.133 0.029 0.168 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 0.996 0.246 0.235 3.075 0.199 0.526 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.003 0.065 0.590 1.623 0.029 0.190 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.975 0.183 -0.248 2.245 0.164 0.128 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.995 0.227 0.102 2.660 0.184 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 0.997 0.292 0.692 4.283 0.213 0.606 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 0.999 0.431 1.438 6.715 0.274 0.815 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.274 0.174 0.011 -0.009 3.582 -0.253 0.829 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.253 SERIES 818041 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.829 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.227 0.294 0.371 0.322 0.226 SDEV 0.250 0.271 0.245 0.265 0.265 SERR 0.065 0.033 0.024 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.771 0.872 0.921 0.913 0.870 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.981 0.176 0.020 3.409 0.166 0.369 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.289 0.174 0.075 48 147 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.36 0.96 1.00 1.12 2.09 8.86 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.368 0.301 0.167 -0.043 -0.032 -0.086 -0.082 -0.057 0.025 0.008 PACF 0.368 0.191 0.009 -0.183 -0.010 -0.025 -0.010 -0.011 0.086 -0.017 95% C.L. 0.143 0.161 0.173 0.176 0.176 0.176 0.177 0.178 0.178 0.178 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.169 0.299 0.192 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.287 0.211 0.151 -0.118 -0.107 -0.088 -0.162 -0.209 -0.083 -0.107 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.287 2 0.247 0.141 3 0.238 0.124 0.065 4 0.252 0.152 0.118 -0.222 5 0.236 0.161 0.129 -0.204 -0.073 6 0.236 0.161 0.129 -0.204 -0.073 0.001 7 0.236 0.156 0.114 -0.195 -0.061 0.019 -0.074 8 0.224 0.159 0.104 -0.228 -0.042 0.045 -0.034 -0.168 9 0.227 0.159 0.103 -0.227 -0.037 0.043 -0.038 -0.173 0.022 10 0.228 0.155 0.102 -0.226 -0.038 0.037 -0.035 -0.169 0.028 -0.025 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1404.77 1389.99 1388.10 1389.27 1381.38 1382.34 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1384.34 1385.27 1381.67 1383.58 1385.45 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.247 0.141 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 10.06 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 111.18 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.247 0.201 0.084 0.049 0.024 0.013 0.007 0.003 0.002 0.0009 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 818011 2 0.061 0.173 0.106 2 818012 2 0.018 0.133 -0.027 3 818021 2 0.431 0.435 0.291 4 818022 2 0.414 0.478 0.226 5 818031 2 0.535 0.610 0.157 6 818032 2 0.437 0.444 0.274 7 818041 2 0.196 0.372 0.116 8 818042 2 0.400 0.540 0.130 9 818051 2 0.235 0.383 0.165 10 818052 2 0.288 0.531 0.003 11 818061 2 0.290 0.321 0.225 12 818062 2 0.197 0.254 0.213 13 818081 2 0.225 0.296 0.235 14 818082 2 0.336 0.609 -0.061 15 818101 2 0.315 0.483 0.115 16 818102 2 0.384 0.599 0.015 17 818111 2 0.699 0.606 0.260 18 818121 2 0.047 0.200 0.046 19 818122 2 0.282 0.370 0.216 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 818131 2 0.312 0.423 0.204 21 818132 2 0.233 0.345 0.204 22 818141 2 0.445 0.514 0.203 23 818142 2 0.260 0.447 0.107 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.306 0.416 0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.157 0.141 0.099 MEDIAN 2 0.290 0.435 0.165 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.178 0.190 0.114 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.018 0.133 -0.061 LOWER HINGE 2 0.229 0.333 0.106 UPPER HINGE 2 0.407 0.523 0.220 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.699 0.610 0.291 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.207 -0.079 2.868 0.229 0.002 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.219 0.271 3.100 0.248 0.000 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.302 0.840 4.395 0.317 0.020 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.000 0.328 0.853 5.081 0.341 -0.028 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.234 0.054 3.454 0.265 -0.004 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.205 0.388 2.754 0.237 -0.045 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.244 0.813 4.155 0.256 -0.010 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.243 0.937 6.219 0.265 0.011 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.218 0.978 5.785 0.216 0.013 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.208 -0.290 3.826 0.228 0.001 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.208 0.279 2.815 0.241 -0.067 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.206 0.217 2.824 0.237 -0.047 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.165 0.519 3.154 0.191 -0.046 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.197 0.859 4.871 0.211 0.009 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.219 0.239 2.592 0.241 -0.008 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.214 0.252 3.611 0.246 -0.003 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.183 -0.089 2.950 0.208 0.038 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.179 0.468 2.869 0.193 -0.006 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.200 0.174 3.246 0.226 -0.037 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.201 0.322 3.304 0.217 -0.007 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.211 0.207 4.876 0.220 -0.023 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.233 0.279 4.053 0.264 -0.018 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.184 0.201 3.139 0.207 -0.012 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.218 0.378 3.737 0.239 -0.012 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.037 0.353 1.026 0.036 0.025 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.208 0.279 3.304 0.237 -0.007 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.026 0.462 1.365 0.035 0.027 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.165 -0.290 2.592 0.191 -0.067 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.201 0.204 2.910 0.217 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.226 0.666 4.275 0.252 0.002 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.328 0.978 6.219 0.341 0.038 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.397 0.130 0.008 0.266 3.600 -0.005 0.829 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.005 SERIES 818041 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.829 SERIES 818061 AND 818062 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.296 0.403 0.472 0.449 0.375 SDEV 0.217 0.188 0.210 0.163 0.175 SERR 0.056 0.023 0.020 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.828 0.917 0.946 0.947 0.932 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.986 0.162 -0.033 3.448 0.206 -0.130 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.246 0.120 0.053 59 136 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.39 0.96 1.01 1.11 2.07 332.02 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.130 -0.055 0.106 -0.168 0.051 -0.024 -0.103 -0.017 0.022 -0.074 PACF -0.130 -0.073 0.091 -0.150 0.024 -0.045 -0.082 -0.078 0.016 -0.079 95% C.L. 0.143 0.146 0.146 0.148 0.151 0.152 0.152 0.153 0.153 0.153 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.022 -0.130 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.007 0.001 0.071 -0.158 0.024 -0.047 -0.108 -0.038 0.003 -0.057 PACF 0.007 0.001 0.071 -0.160 0.029 -0.055 -0.086 -0.066 0.019 -0.064 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.149 0.150 0.150 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.005 0.007 0.001 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.987 0.169 -0.021 3.507 0.167 0.295 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.293 0.197 0.112 -0.100 -0.017 -0.089 -0.127 -0.076 -0.027 -0.025 PACF 0.293 0.122 0.029 -0.177 0.035 -0.060 -0.076 -0.028 0.050 -0.020 95% C.L. 0.143 0.155 0.160 0.162 0.163 0.163 0.164 0.166 0.167 0.167 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.101 0.258 0.121 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.48 MINUTES