RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana051t.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana051t.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 818 1 Mountain Lake (UFE) DENSITY_LATE PCGL - 818 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1794 1988 - 818 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 818032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 818051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 818101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 6.289 0.416 -0.787 3.603 0.073 0.029 2 818012 1926 1988 63 6.001 0.446 -0.336 4.057 0.083 -0.134 3 818021 1794 1988 195 6.564 0.538 -0.275 4.337 0.068 0.393 4 818022 1803 1988 186 6.315 0.654 0.191 3.590 0.072 0.588 5 818031 1796 1988 193 6.300 0.667 -0.626 2.831 0.101 0.280 6 818032 1878 1988 111 6.287 0.718 -0.165 3.204 0.108 0.320 7 818041 1836 1988 153 6.273 0.712 0.271 2.527 0.096 0.421 8 818042 1799 1988 190 6.317 0.637 -0.392 2.981 0.101 0.220 9 818051 1847 1988 142 6.213 0.565 -0.729 3.623 0.087 0.308 10 818052 1884 1988 105 6.512 0.473 -0.421 3.103 0.076 0.058 11 818061 1838 1988 151 6.481 0.815 0.212 2.509 0.120 0.303 12 818062 1856 1988 133 6.238 0.780 0.099 2.392 0.112 0.378 13 818081 1880 1988 109 7.053 0.424 -0.539 3.105 0.070 -0.026 14 818082 1854 1988 135 6.569 0.485 -0.324 3.127 0.081 0.132 15 818101 1891 1988 98 6.960 0.516 0.393 4.923 0.077 0.064 16 818102 1829 1988 160 6.667 0.506 -0.232 2.873 0.080 0.152 17 818111 1841 1988 148 6.135 0.650 -0.326 3.178 0.098 0.376 18 818121 1892 1988 97 6.722 0.491 -0.723 3.436 0.085 -0.053 19 818122 1818 1988 171 6.783 0.455 -0.436 2.785 0.070 0.181 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 6.392 0.637 -0.069 3.298 0.074 0.594 21 818132 1886 1988 103 6.408 0.572 -0.570 2.534 0.091 0.168 22 818141 1806 1988 183 6.451 0.568 -0.037 2.396 0.074 0.458 23 818142 1841 1988 148 6.140 0.524 -0.303 2.619 0.067 0.477 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1794 TO 1988 195 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 6.438 0.576 -0.266 3.175 0.085 0.247 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.264 0.114 0.335 0.641 0.015 0.202 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 6.392 0.565 -0.324 3.105 0.081 0.280 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.286 0.164 0.435 0.811 0.023 0.288 MINIMUM VALUE 63 6.001 0.416 -0.787 2.392 0.067 -0.134 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 6.280 0.488 -0.488 2.702 0.073 0.098 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 6.567 0.652 -0.053 3.513 0.097 0.386 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 7.053 0.815 0.393 4.923 0.120 0.594 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.438 0.172 0.011 -0.224 2.437 -0.037 0.801 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.037 SERIES 818041 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.801 SERIES 818031 AND 818042 190 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.295 0.273 0.401 0.543 0.491 SDEV 0.381 0.247 0.207 0.164 0.181 SERR 0.098 0.030 0.020 0.011 0.012 EPS 0.827 0.860 0.930 0.963 0.957 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 6.426 0.375 -0.634 3.584 0.062 0.055 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.099 -0.044 0.775 46 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.27 0.51 1.00 1.08 1.59 21.82 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.08 0.00 0.87 0.95 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 58. 63. 107. 166. 195. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.054 0.135 -0.012 0.142 0.009 0.046 0.022 0.078 -0.007 0.032 PACF 0.054 0.133 -0.026 0.128 0.000 0.012 0.025 0.053 -0.019 0.012 95% C.L. 0.143 0.144 0.146 0.146 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.149 0.150 0.150 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.022 0.047 0.135 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00478715 6.44689894 2 818012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00329157 5.89562225 3 818021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00058462 6.62170267 4 818022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00257522 6.55594444 5 818031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00143053 6.43917561 6 818032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00542364 6.59857607 7 818041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00916060 5.56796694 8 818042 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00202851 6.51045942 9 818051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00449259 6.53301191 10 818052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00090587 6.56029654 11 818061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00372098 6.76365566 12 818062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.01120836 6.98870468 13 818081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00066982 7.01664639 14 818082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00229631 6.41266537 15 818101 1 1.45387328 0.16341785 0.00000000 6.86344242 16 818102 1 0.63850868 0.00755836 0.00000000 6.29794741 17 818111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00586227 5.69778824 18 818121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00476633 6.95592117 19 818122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037723 6.75095034 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00892081 6.96742392 21 818132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00962483 5.90785837 22 818141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00110436 6.34976482 23 818142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00522133 5.75107813 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.065 -0.669 3.168 0.072 -0.036 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.073 -0.663 4.253 0.082 -0.147 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.082 -0.202 4.238 0.068 0.387 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.000 0.102 0.459 3.618 0.072 0.561 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.105 -0.548 2.753 0.100 0.261 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.112 0.011 3.092 0.108 0.257 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.093 0.106 2.828 0.095 0.171 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.100 -0.304 2.912 0.100 0.180 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.086 -0.648 3.436 0.086 0.207 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.073 -0.377 3.019 0.076 0.050 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.124 0.298 2.697 0.119 0.270 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.104 0.064 2.213 0.111 0.103 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.060 -0.566 3.134 0.069 -0.028 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.073 -0.389 3.436 0.081 0.104 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.066 -0.127 3.363 0.077 -0.174 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.074 -0.106 2.991 0.080 0.087 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.098 -0.341 3.017 0.097 0.267 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.071 -0.444 3.097 0.084 -0.145 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.067 -0.453 2.815 0.070 0.179 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.084 -0.305 2.998 0.073 0.432 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.078 -0.456 2.938 0.090 -0.077 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.088 -0.037 2.439 0.073 0.455 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.077 -0.049 2.827 0.067 0.378 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.085 -0.250 3.099 0.085 0.163 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.017 0.308 0.478 0.015 0.204 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.082 -0.305 3.017 0.081 0.179 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.026 0.411 0.438 0.023 0.258 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.060 -0.669 2.213 0.067 -0.174 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.073 -0.454 2.828 0.073 0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.099 -0.043 3.266 0.096 0.269 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.124 0.459 4.253 0.119 0.561 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 818012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 818031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 818032 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 818041 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 818042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 818051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 818052 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 818061 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 818062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 818081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 818082 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 818101 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 818102 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 818111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 818121 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 818122 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 818132 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.060 -0.725 3.541 0.072 -0.221 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.071 -0.862 4.672 0.082 -0.200 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.074 -0.218 3.602 0.068 0.210 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.999 0.090 0.233 3.267 0.072 0.424 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.100 -0.573 2.905 0.101 0.164 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.999 0.097 -0.344 2.685 0.108 0.017 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.090 -0.019 2.721 0.095 0.135 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.093 -0.315 3.219 0.100 0.051 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.083 -0.592 3.413 0.086 0.137 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.067 -0.429 2.854 0.075 -0.124 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.116 0.186 2.522 0.119 0.170 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.101 -0.020 2.195 0.111 0.049 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.060 -0.582 3.121 0.069 -0.037 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.070 -0.471 3.580 0.081 0.026 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.065 -0.254 3.411 0.077 -0.199 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.072 -0.139 2.922 0.080 0.049 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.096 -0.348 3.010 0.097 0.229 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.068 -0.548 3.191 0.084 -0.235 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.061 -0.514 2.657 0.070 -0.017 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.074 -0.120 3.395 0.073 0.270 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.076 -0.534 3.106 0.090 -0.127 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.999 0.071 -0.177 3.057 0.073 0.169 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.066 0.074 3.064 0.067 0.108 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.079 -0.317 3.135 0.085 0.046 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.016 0.289 0.489 0.015 0.173 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.074 -0.344 3.106 0.081 0.049 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.024 0.412 0.524 0.023 0.247 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.999 0.060 -0.862 2.195 0.067 -0.235 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.067 -0.541 2.879 0.073 -0.081 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.092 -0.130 3.403 0.096 0.167 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.116 0.233 4.672 0.119 0.424 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.516 0.135 0.009 -0.407 2.938 0.127 0.876 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.127 SERIES 818022 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.876 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.338 0.300 0.444 0.577 0.499 SDEV 0.381 0.258 0.190 0.137 0.151 SERR 0.098 0.032 0.019 0.009 0.010 EPS 0.854 0.875 0.941 0.968 0.958 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.999 0.056 -0.648 3.247 0.063 -0.022 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.117 -0.044 0.100 54 141 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.57 1.00 1.06 1.63 49.87 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.022 0.086 -0.081 0.095 -0.069 -0.031 -0.038 -0.025 -0.062 -0.048 PACF -0.022 0.085 -0.078 0.087 -0.055 -0.053 -0.016 -0.038 -0.055 -0.045 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 0.148 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.150 0.132 -0.096 0.103 -0.083 0.023 -0.046 0.031 -0.046 -0.025 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 -0.150 2 -0.134 0.112 3 -0.126 0.104 -0.064 4 -0.122 0.096 -0.055 0.070 5 -0.119 0.094 -0.051 0.065 -0.045 6 -0.120 0.095 -0.052 0.066 -0.048 -0.018 7 -0.120 0.094 -0.050 0.065 -0.046 -0.020 -0.021 8 -0.120 0.094 -0.050 0.065 -0.045 -0.021 -0.020 0.008 9 -0.120 0.094 -0.051 0.063 -0.043 -0.023 -0.018 0.005 -0.026 10 -0.121 0.094 -0.051 0.062 -0.046 -0.020 -0.020 0.009 -0.032 -0.047 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1052.90 1050.43 1049.97 1051.17 1052.21 1053.80 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1055.74 1057.66 1059.64 1061.51 1063.08 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 -0.134 0.112 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 3.49 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 103.62 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 -0.134 0.130 -0.032 0.019 -0.006 0.003 -0.001 0.000 0.000 0.0001 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 818011 2 0.051 -0.219 0.025 2 818012 2 0.052 -0.219 -0.077 3 818021 2 0.065 0.181 0.144 4 818022 2 0.258 0.302 0.295 5 818031 2 0.041 0.146 0.109 6 818032 2 0.023 0.015 0.151 7 818041 2 0.057 0.110 0.193 8 818042 2 0.034 0.043 0.167 9 818051 2 0.050 0.116 0.168 10 818052 2 0.078 -0.094 0.248 11 818061 2 0.078 0.133 0.222 12 818062 2 0.046 0.039 0.209 13 818081 2 0.024 -0.032 0.141 14 818082 2 0.038 0.022 0.145 15 818101 2 0.045 -0.202 0.001 16 818102 2 0.030 0.042 0.156 17 818111 2 0.054 0.232 -0.006 18 818121 2 0.062 -0.233 0.017 19 818122 2 0.019 -0.014 0.136 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 818131 2 0.098 0.228 0.157 21 818132 2 0.019 -0.131 -0.028 22 818141 2 0.072 0.134 0.208 23 818142 2 0.043 0.091 0.167 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.058 0.030 0.128 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.048 0.154 0.095 MEDIAN 2 0.050 0.042 0.151 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.028 0.197 0.113 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.019 -0.233 -0.077 LOWER HINGE 2 0.036 -0.063 0.067 UPPER HINGE 2 0.064 0.134 0.180 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.258 0.302 0.295 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.058 -0.779 3.359 0.063 -0.002 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.069 -0.862 4.771 0.072 -0.007 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.071 -0.385 3.992 0.075 -0.003 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.000 0.078 -0.153 3.753 0.082 -0.017 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.098 -0.585 2.985 0.108 0.005 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.096 -0.339 2.654 0.107 0.003 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.088 -0.219 2.866 0.099 -0.010 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.092 -0.347 3.272 0.102 -0.010 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.081 -0.578 3.515 0.090 -0.006 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.064 -0.420 2.831 0.069 0.011 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.112 0.033 2.402 0.128 0.008 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.098 -0.065 2.159 0.113 0.005 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.059 -0.618 3.217 0.068 -0.006 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.069 -0.379 3.473 0.080 0.018 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.064 -0.276 3.156 0.071 0.000 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.071 -0.146 2.761 0.080 0.009 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.093 -0.195 2.756 0.107 -0.001 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.066 -0.398 3.143 0.074 0.000 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.060 -0.477 2.645 0.069 -0.002 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.070 -0.320 3.243 0.080 0.006 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.075 -0.469 3.160 0.085 -0.001 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.069 -0.190 3.128 0.077 -0.008 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.064 0.072 3.255 0.069 0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.077 -0.352 3.152 0.086 0.000 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.015 0.236 0.547 0.018 0.008 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.071 -0.347 3.156 0.080 -0.001 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.025 0.280 0.520 0.029 0.011 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.058 -0.862 2.159 0.063 -0.017 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.065 -0.473 2.796 0.071 -0.006 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.090 -0.193 3.316 0.101 0.005 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.112 0.072 4.771 0.128 0.018 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.526 0.124 0.008 -0.513 3.491 0.141 0.875 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.141 SERIES 818012 AND 818081 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.875 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.318 0.312 0.484 0.596 0.507 SDEV 0.341 0.250 0.157 0.111 0.143 SERR 0.088 0.031 0.015 0.008 0.009 EPS 0.842 0.881 0.949 0.970 0.959 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.056 -0.661 3.233 0.064 -0.079 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED -0.111 -0.039 0.093 58 137 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.22 0.34 1.00 1.07 1.42 4.34 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.86 0.96 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.079 -0.081 -0.088 0.108 -0.057 -0.039 -0.016 0.009 -0.051 -0.022 PACF -0.079 -0.087 -0.103 0.086 -0.059 -0.042 -0.015 -0.021 -0.053 -0.031 95% C.L. 0.143 0.144 0.145 0.146 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.148 0.149 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.010 0.000 -0.102 0.087 -0.063 -0.038 -0.028 -0.002 -0.058 -0.039 PACF -0.010 0.000 -0.102 0.086 -0.063 -0.049 -0.011 -0.023 -0.058 -0.041 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.011 -0.010 0.000 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.999 0.057 -0.594 3.194 0.067 -0.179 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.178 0.160 -0.155 0.123 -0.091 -0.006 -0.045 0.009 -0.061 -0.034 PACF -0.178 0.132 -0.112 0.067 -0.031 -0.066 -0.019 -0.014 -0.058 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.143 0.148 0.151 0.154 0.156 0.157 0.157 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.066 -0.140 0.115 -0.115 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.23 MINUTES