RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana051l.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana051l.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 818 1 Mountain Lake (UFE) WIDTH_LATE PCGL - 818 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1794 1988 - 818 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 818032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 818051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 11 818061 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1983 1988 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 818101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 19 818122 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 5 IN 1 GAPS / 1885 1889 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.235 0.070 0.627 3.756 0.221 0.456 2 818012 1926 1988 63 0.449 0.202 1.203 4.182 0.338 0.470 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.137 0.099 1.177 3.638 0.293 0.812 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.132 0.076 1.568 6.503 0.303 0.645 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.136 0.056 0.617 2.954 0.267 0.635 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.123 0.043 0.183 2.819 0.257 0.521 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.149 0.072 2.474 9.575 0.223 0.693 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.128 0.069 3.048 14.263 0.277 0.446 9 818051 1847 1988 142 0.166 0.084 2.429 12.315 0.294 0.374 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.160 0.069 1.620 6.390 0.274 0.496 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.102 0.038 1.404 6.206 0.249 0.348 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.091 0.035 0.967 4.079 0.222 0.573 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.100 0.057 8.625 80.103 0.255 0.060 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.109 0.052 1.333 8.421 0.240 0.674 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.121 0.061 1.294 4.303 0.286 0.640 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.129 0.047 3.815 27.222 0.245 0.464 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.078 0.036 1.329 5.148 0.251 0.632 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.156 0.040 1.153 4.938 0.217 0.237 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.168 0.051 1.436 6.270 0.218 0.473 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.152 0.074 2.386 9.817 0.197 0.802 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.117 0.041 0.729 2.986 0.186 0.696 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.136 0.066 0.765 3.850 0.247 0.749 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.169 0.054 0.610 3.609 0.239 0.500 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1794 TO 1988 195 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.150 0.065 1.773 10.145 0.252 0.539 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.073 0.034 1.723 16.166 0.036 0.180 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.136 0.057 1.329 5.148 0.249 0.521 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 56 0.039 0.026 1.137 5.195 0.053 0.199 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.078 0.035 0.183 2.819 0.186 0.060 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.119 0.045 0.866 3.803 0.223 0.460 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 163 0.158 0.071 2.003 8.998 0.276 0.659 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 0.449 0.202 8.625 80.103 0.338 0.812 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.097 0.291 0.018 -0.082 2.351 -0.605 0.767 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.605 SERIES 818021 AND 818082 135 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.767 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.251 0.148 0.204 0.170 0.119 SDEV 0.228 0.264 0.218 0.278 0.319 SERR 0.059 0.032 0.021 0.019 0.021 EPS 0.793 0.740 0.835 0.819 0.756 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.121 0.029 0.122 3.623 0.179 0.551 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.669 0.582 -0.015 102 93 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 2.29 2.33 1.01 1.35 3.69 139.13 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.11 0.00 0.88 0.99 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 58. 63. 107. 166. 195. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.548 0.496 0.448 0.335 0.368 0.372 0.348 0.319 0.347 0.324 PACF 0.548 0.280 0.153 -0.024 0.129 0.123 0.059 -0.002 0.099 0.049 95% C.L. 0.143 0.181 0.207 0.226 0.236 0.248 0.259 0.268 0.276 0.285 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.390 0.350 0.240 0.147 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00158610 0.28726444 2 818012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00341974 0.55832052 3 818021 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00133750 0.00600159 4 818022 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00073684 0.06261087 5 818031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00035762 0.10137305 6 818032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00017041 0.11271608 7 818041 1 0.28577438 0.05180098 0.00000000 0.11409754 8 818042 1 0.25762433 0.17063600 0.00000000 0.12039669 9 818051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00077779 0.11055831 10 818052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00131329 0.09039561 11 818061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00037869 0.12932955 12 818062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00065613 0.13456254 13 818081 1 0.07479250 0.04183314 0.00000000 0.08373961 14 818082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00096995 0.17462355 15 818101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00076652 0.08477986 16 818102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00005890 0.13392925 17 818111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00004992 0.07432157 18 818121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00036109 0.13880154 19 818122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00037033 0.13624434 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00088380 0.20895793 21 818132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00092200 0.16483724 22 818141 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00097891 0.04556897 23 818142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00068291 0.11844733 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.999 0.274 0.848 3.805 0.218 0.335 2 818012 1926 1988 63 0.996 0.427 1.348 4.486 0.332 0.406 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.228 1.027 3.051 13.838 0.293 0.753 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.005 0.550 2.372 10.035 0.302 0.513 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.001 0.382 0.456 2.726 0.266 0.573 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.350 0.265 3.137 0.252 0.501 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.221 0.808 4.051 0.221 0.167 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.501 3.440 18.257 0.277 0.473 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.002 0.540 5.836 49.472 0.292 0.236 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.005 0.344 1.383 4.893 0.273 0.277 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.997 0.329 1.514 6.624 0.248 0.227 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.999 0.246 0.882 4.632 0.223 0.137 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.408 6.388 53.899 0.253 -0.027 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.987 0.294 1.350 7.328 0.239 0.398 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.999 0.448 1.320 5.678 0.286 0.524 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.361 3.543 24.463 0.243 0.456 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.457 1.303 4.923 0.250 0.626 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.245 1.061 4.130 0.215 0.173 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.001 0.283 1.793 9.037 0.215 0.369 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.999 0.378 1.648 6.619 0.196 0.724 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.999 0.247 0.917 3.538 0.185 0.448 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.011 0.380 1.740 7.678 0.247 0.540 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.999 0.269 0.597 3.182 0.238 0.335 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.010 0.390 1.907 11.149 0.251 0.398 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.048 0.168 1.589 13.832 0.036 0.193 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.361 1.350 5.678 0.248 0.406 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.002 0.159 1.183 5.446 0.053 0.262 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.987 0.221 0.265 2.726 0.185 -0.027 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.999 0.279 0.900 4.090 0.222 0.257 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.001 0.437 2.083 9.536 0.275 0.518 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.228 1.027 6.388 53.899 0.332 0.753 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 818012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 818031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 818032 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 818041 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 818042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 818051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 818052 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 818061 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 818062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 818081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 818082 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 818101 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 818102 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 818111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 818121 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 818122 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 818132 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.996 0.243 1.578 8.097 0.217 0.069 2 818012 1926 1988 63 0.997 0.322 0.692 2.697 0.332 0.135 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.995 0.432 1.143 4.744 0.293 0.512 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.992 0.506 2.251 9.315 0.301 0.489 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.995 0.364 0.445 2.603 0.266 0.540 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.990 0.266 0.701 3.599 0.252 0.196 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.999 0.213 0.669 3.774 0.221 0.112 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.998 0.460 2.879 14.750 0.277 0.438 9 818051 1847 1988 142 0.991 0.438 4.533 32.642 0.292 0.136 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.995 0.310 1.704 6.638 0.272 0.130 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.997 0.272 0.946 4.788 0.249 0.056 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.999 0.241 0.997 4.949 0.223 0.089 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.999 0.399 6.787 58.712 0.253 -0.070 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.997 0.271 2.021 11.957 0.239 0.242 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.988 0.376 1.370 6.133 0.285 0.374 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.997 0.316 2.415 15.645 0.243 0.388 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.987 0.346 1.972 9.561 0.252 0.289 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.999 0.239 1.020 4.233 0.215 0.143 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.998 0.260 1.657 8.774 0.215 0.290 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.993 0.343 2.161 10.193 0.196 0.671 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.999 0.237 0.793 3.163 0.185 0.414 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.995 0.324 0.750 3.924 0.247 0.458 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.999 0.259 0.709 3.565 0.238 0.258 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.995 0.323 1.747 10.194 0.251 0.276 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.004 0.081 1.442 12.434 0.036 0.189 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 0.997 0.316 1.370 6.133 0.249 0.258 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.004 0.111 1.319 6.028 0.052 0.294 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.987 0.213 0.445 2.603 0.185 -0.070 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.994 0.259 0.771 3.849 0.222 0.132 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 0.998 0.370 2.091 9.877 0.274 0.426 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 0.999 0.506 6.787 58.712 0.332 0.671 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.155 0.155 0.010 0.358 3.595 -0.214 0.693 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.214 SERIES 818021 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.693 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.250 0.173 0.212 0.218 0.155 SDEV 0.231 0.199 0.215 0.195 0.219 SERR 0.060 0.025 0.021 0.013 0.014 EPS 0.792 0.774 0.842 0.860 0.808 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.967 0.187 0.433 3.325 0.170 0.375 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.354 0.233 0.037 79 116 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.37 1.32 1.00 1.14 2.45 57.67 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.92 0.10 0.00 0.87 0.97 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.373 0.305 0.230 0.038 0.028 0.044 0.027 -0.059 0.017 -0.056 PACF 0.373 0.192 0.080 -0.132 -0.017 0.057 0.031 -0.113 0.045 -0.049 95% C.L. 0.143 0.162 0.173 0.179 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180 0.180 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.185 0.299 0.206 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.219 0.173 0.067 -0.080 -0.080 -0.004 -0.024 -0.139 -0.060 -0.098 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.219 2 0.190 0.131 3 0.189 0.130 0.006 4 0.190 0.146 0.029 -0.124 5 0.183 0.148 0.038 -0.113 -0.057 6 0.186 0.154 0.035 -0.122 -0.067 0.057 7 0.186 0.154 0.035 -0.122 -0.067 0.057 0.000 8 0.186 0.163 0.025 -0.141 -0.062 0.081 0.029 -0.160 9 0.182 0.164 0.027 -0.142 -0.065 0.082 0.033 -0.155 -0.024 10 0.181 0.158 0.028 -0.139 -0.068 0.077 0.034 -0.149 -0.017 -0.037 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1393.42 1385.87 1384.49 1386.48 1385.46 1386.83 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1388.20 1390.20 1387.16 1389.05 1390.78 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.190 0.131 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 6.42 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 106.86 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.190 0.167 0.057 0.033 0.014 0.007 0.003 0.001 0.001 0.0003 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 818011 2 0.078 0.054 0.262 2 818012 2 0.043 0.154 -0.139 3 818021 2 0.299 0.406 0.212 4 818022 2 0.267 0.411 0.159 5 818031 2 0.318 0.450 0.174 6 818032 2 0.081 0.165 0.158 7 818041 2 0.045 0.092 0.179 8 818042 2 0.261 0.356 0.190 9 818051 2 0.022 0.131 0.043 10 818052 2 0.018 0.126 0.033 11 818061 2 0.023 0.054 0.033 12 818062 2 0.036 0.076 0.162 13 818081 2 0.008 -0.074 -0.053 14 818082 2 0.064 0.257 -0.047 15 818101 2 0.169 0.356 0.088 16 818102 2 0.161 0.376 0.054 17 818111 2 0.101 0.257 0.114 18 818121 2 0.036 0.151 -0.060 19 818122 2 0.114 0.266 0.085 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 818131 2 0.468 0.669 0.004 21 818132 2 0.183 0.389 0.070 22 818141 2 0.280 0.343 0.272 23 818142 2 0.079 0.241 0.092 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.137 0.248 0.091 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.124 0.169 0.107 MEDIAN 2 0.081 0.257 0.088 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.182 0.238 0.135 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.008 -0.074 -0.139 LOWER HINGE 2 0.040 0.128 0.033 UPPER HINGE 2 0.222 0.366 0.168 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.468 0.669 0.272 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.233 1.587 8.266 0.208 0.011 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.316 0.701 2.595 0.353 0.010 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.361 1.259 5.459 0.357 -0.012 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.001 0.434 1.670 7.444 0.386 -0.014 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.300 0.358 2.792 0.336 -0.007 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.258 1.028 4.179 0.273 -0.022 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.208 0.613 3.555 0.230 0.005 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.001 0.404 2.961 16.999 0.333 -0.038 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.434 4.722 34.160 0.308 -0.002 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.307 1.821 7.070 0.290 -0.001 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.271 0.994 4.820 0.257 -0.005 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.237 1.046 5.229 0.233 0.007 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.398 6.501 55.776 0.244 -0.001 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.263 1.603 8.930 0.278 -0.001 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.345 1.231 5.746 0.332 0.028 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.288 2.059 12.707 0.290 -0.010 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.329 2.259 12.711 0.289 -0.008 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.236 1.089 4.439 0.232 -0.007 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.248 1.755 9.640 0.249 -0.014 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.254 0.614 4.405 0.273 0.000 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.214 0.622 3.618 0.226 -0.006 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.273 0.929 4.401 0.283 -0.022 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.248 0.850 4.034 0.266 -0.005 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.298 1.664 9.955 0.284 -0.005 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.069 1.415 12.065 0.048 0.013 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.273 1.231 5.459 0.278 -0.005 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.089 0.898 4.996 0.074 0.010 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.208 0.358 2.595 0.208 -0.038 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.248 0.890 4.290 0.246 -0.011 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.337 1.788 9.285 0.320 0.000 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.001 0.434 6.501 55.776 0.386 0.028 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.164 0.142 0.009 0.362 3.794 -0.233 0.663 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.233 SERIES 818012 AND 818141 63 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.663 SERIES 818051 AND 818052 105 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.160 0.185 0.241 0.229 0.154 SDEV 0.245 0.163 0.185 0.178 0.185 SERR 0.063 0.020 0.018 0.012 0.012 EPS 0.686 0.788 0.863 0.867 0.808 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.971 0.156 0.524 3.721 0.182 -0.070 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.411 0.274 -0.035 80 115 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.48 1.62 1.00 1.13 2.75 27.96 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.91 0.11 0.00 0.87 0.98 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.070 -0.005 0.106 -0.106 -0.021 0.013 0.024 -0.040 0.019 -0.064 PACF -0.070 -0.010 0.106 -0.093 -0.034 -0.001 0.046 -0.042 0.008 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.143 0.144 0.144 0.146 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.148 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 0 0.000 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.001 0.007 0.098 -0.101 -0.026 0.012 0.022 -0.038 0.012 -0.064 PACF 0.001 0.007 0.098 -0.103 -0.027 0.005 0.043 -0.045 0.005 -0.071 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 0.146 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.010 0.001 0.008 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.971 0.162 0.388 3.331 0.158 0.236 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.235 0.184 0.137 -0.047 -0.014 -0.002 0.010 -0.041 -0.007 -0.061 PACF 0.235 0.136 0.072 -0.122 -0.014 0.021 0.035 -0.061 0.000 -0.055 95% C.L. 0.143 0.151 0.155 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 0.158 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.080 0.202 0.143 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.31 MINUTES