RUN: CANA FILE NAMES FILE PROCESSED: run_me DATA FILE PROCESSED: cana051e.rwl LOG FILE PROCESSED: cana051e.rwl_log OPTION PLOT TREE-RING DATA TYPE 1 !TUCSON RING-WIDTH FORMAT MISSING DATA IN GAPS -9 0 !MISSING VALUES ESTIMATED (NO PLOTS) DATA TRANSFORMATION 0 0 !NO DATA TRANSFORMATION (NO PLOTS) FIRST DETRENDING 1 0 !1ST-NEG EXPONENTIAL CURVE, NO = OPT 3 SECOND DETRENDING -67 0 !2ND-SPLINE CURVE (PCT N 50% CUTOFF) ROBUST DETRENDING 1 !NON-ROBUST DETRENDING METHODS USED INTERACTIVE DETREND 0 !NO INTERACTIVE DETRENDING INDEX CALCULATION 1 !TREE-RING INDICES OR RATIOS (Rt/Gt) AR MODELING METHOD 1 0 !NON-ROBUST AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELING POOLED AR ORDER 0 0 !MINIMUM AIC POOLED AR MODEL ORDER FIT SERIES AR ORDER 0 !POOLED AR ORDER FIT TO ALL SERIES MEAN CHRONOLOGY 2 0 !ROBUST CHRONOLOGY (NO BIWEIGHT PLOTS) STABILIZE VARIANCE 1 !RBAR WEIGHTED STABILIZATION METHOD COMMON PERIOD YEARS 0 0 !NO COMMON PERIOD ANALYSIS PERFORMED SITE-TREE-CORE MASK SSSTTCC !SITE-TREE-CORE SEPARATION MASK RUNNING RBAR 50 25 0 !RUNNING RBAR WINDOW/OVERLAP (NO PLOTS) PRINTOUT OPTION 2 !SUMMARY & SERIES STATISTICS PRINTED CORE SERIES SAVE 1 !SERIES SAVED IN TUCSON RAW DATA FORMAT SUMMARY PLOT DISPLAYS 0 !NO SPAGHETTI AND MEAN CHRONOLOGY PLOTS STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES 0 !NO STAND DYNAMICS ANALYSES DONE RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH 0 !RUNNING MEAN WINDOW WIDTH PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE 0 !PERCENT GROWTH CHANGE THRESHOLD STANDARD ERROR THRESHOLD 0 !STANDARD ERROR LIMIT THRESHOLD |======================== RAW DATA STATISTICAL ANALYSES =======================| |------------------- TREE-RING SERIES READ IN FOR PROCESSING ------------------| DATA HEADER LINES: 818 1 Mountain Lake (UFE) WIDTH_EARLY PCGL - 818 2 Canada White Spruce 1500 5329-5840 1794 1988 - 818 3 FRITZ SCHWEINGRUBER - |------------ SERIES GAPS FOUND BASED ON ANY NEGATIVE NUMBER FOUND ------------| SERIES IDENT RESULTS OF SCANS FOR GAPS OR MISSING VALUES 6 818032 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1946 1946 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 9 818051 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 1 IN 1 GAPS / 1934 1934 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- 15 818101 MISSING VALUES FOUND: 6 IN 1 GAPS / 1944 1949 / -------------------------------------------------------------------- |------------------ STATISTICS OF RAW TREE-RING MEASUREMENTS ------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.948 0.289 -0.232 2.751 0.240 0.580 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.463 0.436 0.642 3.755 0.263 0.371 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.497 0.454 1.327 3.975 0.317 0.892 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.450 0.346 1.432 5.347 0.303 0.856 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.621 0.318 0.637 2.854 0.225 0.864 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.547 0.192 -0.208 2.433 0.209 0.764 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.624 0.307 1.039 5.581 0.259 0.720 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.570 0.211 0.583 3.850 0.233 0.724 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.518 0.809 2.537 0.203 0.870 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.927 0.350 0.336 2.473 0.201 0.815 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.433 0.161 -0.078 2.390 0.230 0.719 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.400 0.205 -0.048 1.917 0.260 0.807 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.428 0.115 0.284 2.759 0.175 0.682 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.457 0.213 -0.046 2.129 0.184 0.876 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.619 0.277 0.648 2.651 0.225 0.795 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.628 0.191 -0.358 2.796 0.227 0.653 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.466 0.241 0.634 2.696 0.193 0.921 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.779 0.256 0.581 2.340 0.187 0.736 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.641 0.274 1.002 4.220 0.214 0.800 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.487 0.191 0.452 2.847 0.203 0.780 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.514 0.174 0.375 2.664 0.219 0.661 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.535 0.415 0.991 3.213 0.244 0.938 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.715 0.311 0.076 3.032 0.201 0.838 NUMBER OF SERIES READ IN: 23 FROM 1794 TO 1988 195 YEARS |---------------- SUMMARY OF RAW TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ------------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 137 0.641 0.280 0.473 3.096 0.227 0.768 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.247 0.103 0.499 0.949 0.036 0.126 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 141 0.570 0.274 0.581 2.759 0.225 0.795 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.202 0.134 0.714 0.979 0.040 0.141 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.400 0.115 -0.358 1.917 0.175 0.371 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.477 0.199 0.015 2.505 0.202 0.719 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 0.678 0.332 0.728 3.484 0.242 0.860 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.463 0.518 1.432 5.581 0.317 0.938 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.190 0.417 0.026 -0.292 2.021 -0.679 0.937 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.679 SERIES 818062 AND 818141 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.937 SERIES 818021 AND 818022 186 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.249 0.284 0.404 0.241 0.158 SDEV 0.233 0.304 0.250 0.356 0.413 SERR 0.060 0.037 0.024 0.025 0.027 EPS 0.791 0.866 0.931 0.875 0.812 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.510 0.214 0.221 2.428 0.201 0.857 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.770 0.468 0.008 46 149 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.41 1.22 1.00 1.12 2.34 11.28 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.08 0.00 0.86 0.93 1.00 |--------------------- SEGMENT LENGTH SUMMARY STATISTICS ----------------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LENGTH RANGE LENGTH HINGE HINGE LENGTH 142. 58. 63. 107. 166. 195. |----------- RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.852 0.819 0.810 0.754 0.743 0.742 0.721 0.722 0.731 0.711 PACF 0.852 0.338 0.245 -0.039 0.097 0.127 0.052 0.084 0.115 0.007 95% C.L. 0.143 0.224 0.279 0.324 0.358 0.388 0.416 0.441 0.465 0.488 |------------------ RAW DATA CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 3 0.792 0.449 0.241 0.245 |================== DETRENDED DATA CURVE FITS AND STATISTICS ==================| |------------------------ RESULTS OF FIRST DETRENDING -------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00590691 1.14308178 2 818012 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402554 1.33435738 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 818031 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00382715 0.24990609 6 818032 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00267273 0.39495236 7 818041 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00090983 0.55425698 8 818042 1 0.70951062 0.10115150 0.00000000 0.53491843 9 818051 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00916267 0.34689710 10 818052 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00802416 0.50129122 11 818061 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00178968 0.56932718 12 818062 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00426975 0.68569720 13 818081 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00223158 0.55099386 14 818082 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00311960 0.66887343 15 818101 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00402403 0.43538982 16 818102 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00050797 0.58748347 17 818111 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00130835 0.36813569 18 818121 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00633376 0.46861470 19 818122 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00406696 0.29129410 SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00093038 0.54743111 21 818132 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 -0.00124050 0.57809824 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 3 0.00000000 0.00000000 0.00608354 0.26218146 |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.998 0.288 0.009 2.797 0.236 0.540 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.295 0.722 3.891 0.259 0.345 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.004 0.433 0.883 4.145 0.316 0.578 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.997 0.405 0.901 3.979 0.301 0.514 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.010 0.379 0.095 2.978 0.224 0.707 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.002 0.316 -0.605 2.881 0.206 0.681 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.001 0.519 1.655 8.193 0.258 0.705 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.328 0.089 2.740 0.232 0.646 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.007 0.338 1.027 5.494 0.203 0.653 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.999 0.276 0.190 2.913 0.198 0.567 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.994 0.336 0.301 2.810 0.228 0.667 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.976 0.318 0.443 2.960 0.257 0.585 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.999 0.207 0.025 2.684 0.173 0.483 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.981 0.398 0.410 2.383 0.182 0.845 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.998 0.402 0.497 2.294 0.220 0.750 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.302 -0.349 2.829 0.226 0.640 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.003 0.498 0.433 2.490 0.192 0.904 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.227 0.559 3.103 0.186 0.373 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.005 0.287 0.493 3.286 0.213 0.507 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.999 0.386 0.462 2.709 0.202 0.762 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.999 0.332 0.511 3.062 0.217 0.624 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.005 0.379 0.952 5.359 0.243 0.685 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.988 0.271 0.285 3.644 0.200 0.595 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.998 0.344 0.434 3.462 0.225 0.624 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.008 0.077 0.478 1.330 0.036 0.133 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.332 0.443 2.960 0.220 0.640 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.005 0.101 0.498 0.999 0.039 0.142 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.976 0.207 -0.605 2.294 0.173 0.345 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.998 0.291 0.143 2.768 0.201 0.554 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.003 0.392 0.640 3.767 0.240 0.695 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.010 0.519 1.655 8.193 0.316 0.904 |------------------------ RESULTS OF SECOND DETRENDING ------------------------| |--------------- GROWTH CURVE USED FOR DETRENDING TREE-RING DATA --------------| CURVE OPTION -2: REGIONAL CURVE DETRENDING F(I) = ONE AGE-ALIGNED CURVE CURVE OPTION -1: FIRST-DIFFERENCES F(I) = Y(I) - Y(I-1) CURVE OPTION 1: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 3 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 2: NEG EXPON CURVE, NO = OPT 4 F(I) = A*EXP(-B*T(I)) + D CURVE OPTION 3: LINEAR REGRESSION (ANY SLOPE) F(I) = +/-C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 4: LINEAR REGRESSION (NEG SLOPE) F(I) = -C*T(I) + D CURVE OPTION 5: HORIZONTAL LINE THROUGH MEAN F(I) = MEAN(Y(I)) = D CURVE OPTION 6: HUGERSHOFF GROWTH FUNCTION F(I) = A*T(I)**B * EXP(C*T(I)) CURVE OPTION 7: GENERAL EXPONENTIAL CURVE F(I) = A*T(I) * EXP(-B*T(I)) CURVE OPTION >9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE FIXED 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF CURVE OPTION <-9: CUBIC SMOOTHING SPLINE PCT N 50 PCT VARIANCE CUTOFF SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 1 818011 -67 43 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 2 818012 -67 42 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 3 818021 -67 130 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 4 818022 -67 124 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 5 818031 -67 129 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 6 818032 -67 74 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 7 818041 -67 102 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 8 818042 -67 127 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 9 818051 -67 95 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 10 818052 -67 70 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 11 818061 -67 101 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 12 818062 -67 89 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 13 818081 -67 73 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 14 818082 -67 90 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 15 818101 -67 65 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 16 818102 -67 107 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 17 818111 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 18 818121 -67 64 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 19 818122 -67 114 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH SERIES IDENT OPTION A B C D 20 818131 -67 85 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 21 818132 -67 69 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 22 818141 -67 122 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH 23 818142 -67 99 SMOOTHING SPLINE CURVE AND WINDOW WIDTH |-------------------- STATISTICS OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES -------------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 0.997 0.225 0.065 2.686 0.236 0.175 2 818012 1926 1988 63 0.998 0.241 0.219 2.817 0.258 0.135 3 818021 1794 1988 195 0.998 0.422 0.805 3.952 0.316 0.571 4 818022 1803 1988 186 0.998 0.401 0.891 3.910 0.301 0.516 5 818031 1796 1988 193 0.996 0.358 -0.026 2.574 0.223 0.693 6 818032 1878 1988 111 0.990 0.288 -0.248 2.786 0.206 0.637 7 818041 1836 1988 153 0.977 0.317 0.470 3.458 0.257 0.441 8 818042 1799 1988 190 0.996 0.309 0.455 3.568 0.232 0.577 9 818051 1847 1988 142 0.989 0.253 0.588 4.549 0.203 0.420 10 818052 1884 1988 105 0.996 0.258 0.077 2.660 0.198 0.519 11 818061 1838 1988 151 0.994 0.257 -0.122 2.831 0.228 0.448 12 818062 1856 1988 133 0.993 0.258 0.162 2.821 0.256 0.294 13 818081 1880 1988 109 0.999 0.201 0.034 2.783 0.173 0.442 14 818082 1854 1988 135 0.997 0.263 1.007 5.228 0.182 0.542 15 818101 1891 1988 98 0.981 0.271 0.014 2.353 0.220 0.523 16 818102 1829 1988 160 0.996 0.287 0.055 3.178 0.225 0.590 17 818111 1841 1988 148 0.973 0.354 0.171 2.683 0.191 0.815 18 818121 1892 1988 97 0.997 0.192 0.272 2.607 0.185 0.195 19 818122 1818 1988 171 0.996 0.256 0.294 3.164 0.213 0.412 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 0.993 0.250 0.196 2.641 0.201 0.431 21 818132 1886 1988 103 0.993 0.260 0.681 3.504 0.217 0.364 22 818141 1806 1988 183 0.997 0.351 0.476 3.989 0.243 0.647 23 818142 1841 1988 148 0.996 0.236 0.170 3.001 0.199 0.442 |---------------- SUMMARY OF SINGLE TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS ---------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 0.993 0.283 0.291 3.206 0.225 0.471 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.007 0.060 0.329 0.718 0.036 0.166 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 0.996 0.260 0.196 2.831 0.220 0.448 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.004 0.061 0.413 0.851 0.039 0.158 MINIMUM VALUE 63 0.973 0.192 -0.248 2.353 0.173 0.135 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 0.993 0.252 0.060 2.685 0.200 0.416 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 0.997 0.313 0.473 3.536 0.240 0.574 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 0.999 0.422 1.007 5.228 0.316 0.815 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.290 0.169 0.011 -0.006 3.902 -0.240 0.829 MINIMUM CORRELATION: -0.240 SERIES 818062 AND 818111 133 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.829 SERIES 818031 AND 818032 111 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.204 0.304 0.367 0.331 0.241 SDEV 0.260 0.265 0.239 0.255 0.256 SERR 0.067 0.033 0.023 0.018 0.017 EPS 0.746 0.877 0.920 0.916 0.880 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN STANDARD CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.983 0.191 0.159 3.505 0.194 0.287 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.268 0.164 0.095 51 144 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.30 0.55 1.00 1.10 1.64 85.70 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.89 0.10 0.00 0.85 0.95 1.00 |----------- STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.286 0.229 0.071 -0.125 -0.097 -0.170 -0.104 -0.082 0.031 0.009 PACF 0.286 0.161 -0.033 -0.193 -0.035 -0.083 -0.006 -0.028 0.079 -0.036 95% C.L. 0.143 0.154 0.161 0.162 0.164 0.165 0.169 0.170 0.171 0.171 |------------------ STANDARD CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.108 0.241 0.162 |======================= POOLED AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSIS =======================| POOLED AUTOCORRELATIONS: LAG T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.256 0.177 0.136 -0.119 -0.119 -0.116 -0.175 -0.207 -0.091 -0.103 YULE-WALKER ESTIMATES OF AUTOREGRESSION: ORDER T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 1 0.256 2 0.225 0.119 3 0.216 0.103 0.072 4 0.231 0.124 0.116 -0.202 5 0.213 0.134 0.126 -0.182 -0.088 6 0.209 0.126 0.132 -0.176 -0.079 -0.043 7 0.206 0.120 0.118 -0.165 -0.068 -0.026 -0.081 8 0.194 0.116 0.107 -0.190 -0.051 -0.008 -0.051 -0.148 9 0.194 0.116 0.107 -0.189 -0.051 -0.009 -0.051 -0.148 0.002 10 0.194 0.109 0.105 -0.190 -0.053 -0.017 -0.046 -0.143 0.011 -0.047 LAST TERM IN EACH ROW ABOVE EQUALS THE PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATION COEFFICIENT AKAIKE INFORMATION CRITERION: AR( 0) AR( 1) AR( 2) AR( 3) AR( 4) AR( 5) 1435.81 1424.63 1423.83 1424.82 1418.70 1419.18 AR( 6) AR( 7) AR( 8) AR( 9) AR(10) 1420.82 1421.52 1419.21 1421.21 1422.79 SELECTED AUTOREGRESSION ORDER: 2 AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION: IPP=0 FIRST-MINIMUM AIC SELECTION THE AIC TRACE SHOULD BE CHECKED TO SEE IF AR ORDER SELECTION CRITERION IS ADEQUATE. E.G. IF AR-ORDERS OF THE FIRST-MINIMUM AND THE FULL-MINIMUM AIC ARE CLOSE, AN ARSTAN RUN WITH FULL-MINIMUM AIC ORDER SELECTION MIGHT BE TRIED AUTOREGRESSION COEFFICIENTS: T= -1 T= -2 T= -3 T= -4 T= -5 T= -6 T= -7 T= -8 T= -9 T=-10 0.225 0.119 R-SQUARED DUE TO POOLED AUTOREGRESSION: 7.87 PCT VARIANCE INFLATION FROM AUTOREGRESSION: 108.54 PCT IMPULSE RESPONSE FUNCTION WEIGHTS FOR THIS AR ( 2) PROCESS OUT TO ORDER 50: 1.0000 0.225 0.170 0.065 0.035 0.016 0.008 0.004 0.002 0.001 0.0004 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.0000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 |================== INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSION ANALYSES =================| |---------------- INDIVIDUAL SERIES AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS ---------------| SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 1 818011 2 0.041 0.182 0.012 2 818012 2 0.031 0.146 -0.072 3 818021 2 0.378 0.417 0.273 4 818022 2 0.321 0.383 0.260 5 818031 2 0.504 0.580 0.171 6 818032 2 0.456 0.476 0.254 7 818041 2 0.223 0.384 0.137 8 818042 2 0.350 0.502 0.132 9 818051 2 0.210 0.347 0.183 10 818052 2 0.280 0.540 -0.027 11 818061 2 0.310 0.342 0.240 12 818062 2 0.209 0.226 0.235 13 818081 2 0.253 0.352 0.204 14 818082 2 0.325 0.566 0.004 15 818101 2 0.291 0.470 0.103 16 818102 2 0.378 0.587 0.024 17 818111 2 0.695 0.621 0.241 18 818121 2 0.046 0.190 0.065 19 818122 2 0.249 0.305 0.259 SERIES IDENT ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP 20 818131 2 0.235 0.334 0.232 21 818132 2 0.188 0.288 0.213 22 818141 2 0.441 0.548 0.156 23 818142 2 0.217 0.396 0.121 |------------- SUMMARY STATISTICS FOR AUTOREGRESSIVE COEFFICIENTS -------------| ORDER RSQ t-1 t-2 t-3 ..... t-IP ARITHMETIC MEAN 2 0.288 0.399 0.149 STANDARD DEVIATION 0 0.152 0.140 0.104 MEDIAN 2 0.280 0.384 0.171 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 0 0.151 0.201 0.153 MINIMUM VALUE 2 0.031 0.146 -0.072 LOWER HINGE 2 0.213 0.320 0.084 UPPER HINGE 2 0.364 0.521 0.238 MAXIMUM VALUE 2 0.695 0.621 0.273 |------------------- STATISTICS OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING DATA -----------------| SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 1 818011 1924 1988 65 1.000 0.221 -0.038 2.667 0.256 -0.003 2 818012 1926 1988 63 1.000 0.239 0.251 3.193 0.274 -0.005 3 818021 1794 1988 195 1.000 0.333 0.700 3.716 0.365 0.005 4 818022 1803 1988 186 1.000 0.331 0.775 3.886 0.361 -0.021 5 818031 1796 1988 193 1.000 0.251 0.035 3.329 0.284 -0.009 6 818032 1878 1988 111 1.000 0.214 0.281 2.568 0.249 -0.036 7 818041 1836 1988 153 1.000 0.280 0.684 4.171 0.289 -0.016 8 818042 1799 1988 190 1.000 0.249 0.457 4.163 0.288 0.010 9 818051 1847 1988 142 1.000 0.225 0.991 6.610 0.224 0.013 10 818052 1884 1988 105 1.000 0.219 -0.436 3.955 0.241 0.001 11 818061 1838 1988 151 1.000 0.223 0.178 2.591 0.263 -0.065 12 818062 1856 1988 133 1.000 0.239 0.258 3.008 0.281 -0.065 13 818081 1880 1988 109 1.000 0.176 0.162 2.869 0.204 -0.037 14 818082 1854 1988 135 1.000 0.216 0.932 5.948 0.232 0.018 15 818101 1891 1988 98 1.000 0.230 0.236 2.522 0.261 -0.011 16 818102 1829 1988 160 1.000 0.229 0.044 2.684 0.270 0.001 17 818111 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.197 -0.191 3.232 0.225 0.031 18 818121 1892 1988 97 1.000 0.188 0.378 2.718 0.199 -0.008 19 818122 1818 1988 171 1.000 0.225 0.276 3.590 0.248 -0.043 SERIES IDENT FRST LAST YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) 20 818131 1860 1987 128 1.000 0.218 0.260 4.011 0.232 -0.023 21 818132 1886 1988 103 1.000 0.236 0.413 4.902 0.251 -0.027 22 818141 1806 1988 183 1.000 0.264 0.392 4.416 0.303 -0.013 23 818142 1841 1988 148 1.000 0.209 0.243 2.831 0.235 -0.010 |------------- SUMMARY OF PREWHITENED TREE-RING SERIES STATISTICS -------------| YEAR MEAN STDEV SKEW KURT SENS AC(1) ARITHMETIC MEAN 138 1.000 0.235 0.317 3.634 0.262 -0.014 STANDARD DEVIATION 39 0.000 0.038 0.340 1.077 0.042 0.024 MEDIAN (50TH QUANTILE) 142 1.000 0.225 0.260 3.329 0.256 -0.010 INTERQUARTILE RANGE 58 0.000 0.027 0.265 1.313 0.048 0.026 MINIMUM VALUE 63 1.000 0.176 -0.436 2.522 0.199 -0.065 LOWER HINGE (25TH QUANTILE) 107 1.000 0.217 0.170 2.775 0.234 -0.025 UPPER HINGE (75TH QUANTILE) 165 1.000 0.244 0.435 4.087 0.282 0.001 MAXIMUM VALUE 195 1.000 0.333 0.991 6.610 0.365 0.031 |-------------------- ALL POSSIBLE SERIES RBAR STATISTICS ---------------------| TOTAL MEAN STANDARD STANDARD SKEWESS KURTOSIS MINIMUM MAXIMUM CORRS RBAR DEVIATION ERROR COEFF COEFF CORR CORR 253 0.414 0.123 0.008 0.265 3.878 0.000 0.830 MINIMUM CORRELATION: 0.000 SERIES 818041 AND 818131 128 YEARS MAXIMUM CORRELATION: 0.830 SERIES 818061 AND 818062 133 YEARS PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE CORRELATIONS USED (N>20 YEARS): 100.00 PERCENT OF ALL POSSIBLE TREE-RING YEARS USED IN RBAR: 58.91 |--------------------------- RUNNING RBAR STATISTICS --------------------------| YEAR 1850. 1875. 1900. 1925. 1950. CORR 15. 66. 105. 210. 231. RBAR 0.293 0.408 0.462 0.460 0.402 SDEV 0.211 0.191 0.191 0.159 0.171 SERR 0.055 0.024 0.019 0.011 0.011 EPS 0.826 0.919 0.944 0.949 0.939 NSS 11.5 16.4 19.8 22.0 23.0 |======================== RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS ======================| *** VARIANCE STABILIZED WITH BRIFFA RBAR-WEIGHTED METHOD *** |----------------- ROBUST MEAN RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -----------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.989 0.175 -0.090 3.282 0.223 -0.127 MEAN INDICES VS THEIR STANDARD DEVIATIONS ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY RESULTS CORRELATION SLOPE INTERCEPT # IMPROVED # UNIMPROVED 0.261 0.128 0.059 53 142 |---------------- ROBUST MEAN EFFICIENCY GAIN AND LOSS RESULTS ----------------| MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM GAIN RANGE GAIN HINGE HINGE GAIN 1.31 0.79 1.01 1.13 1.92 101.54 MEDIAN INTERQUARTILE MINIMUM LOWER UPPER MAXIMUM LOSS RANGE LOSS HINGE HINGE LOSS 0.90 0.07 0.00 0.86 0.94 1.00 |----------- RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS ------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF -0.126 -0.079 0.082 -0.137 0.016 -0.079 -0.108 -0.025 0.037 -0.068 PACF -0.126 -0.097 0.060 -0.130 -0.007 -0.110 -0.121 -0.097 0.009 -0.096 95% C.L. 0.143 0.145 0.146 0.147 0.150 0.150 0.151 0.152 0.152 0.153 |------------------ RESIDUAL CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL ------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.025 -0.127 |---------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -----------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.006 -0.005 0.042 -0.146 -0.020 -0.113 -0.125 -0.051 0.019 -0.040 PACF 0.006 -0.005 0.042 -0.147 -0.017 -0.119 -0.115 -0.078 0.018 -0.073 95% C.L. 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.143 0.147 0.147 0.148 0.150 0.151 0.151 |----------------- REWHITENED CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -----------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 2 0.002 0.006 -0.005 |========================= ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS =======================| |----------------- ROBUST MEAN ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY STATISTICS -------------------| FIRST LAST TOTAL MEAN STDRD SKEW KURTOSIS MEAN SERIAL YEAR YEAR YEARS INDEX DEV COEFF COEFF SENS CORR 1794 1988 195 0.989 0.179 -0.031 3.416 0.186 0.255 |------------ ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTO AND PARTIAL AUTOCORRELATIONS -------------| LAG T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 ACF 0.253 0.150 0.055 -0.137 -0.086 -0.171 -0.168 -0.098 -0.013 -0.008 PACF 0.253 0.091 -0.002 -0.175 -0.025 -0.119 -0.088 -0.033 0.047 -0.035 95% C.L. 0.143 0.152 0.155 0.156 0.158 0.159 0.163 0.166 0.167 0.167 |------------------- ARSTAN CHRONOLOGY AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL -------------------| ORD RSQ T-1 T-2 T-3 T-4 T-5 T-6 T-7 T-8 T-9 T-10 1 0.073 0.255 |================ AS JIM MORRISON WOULD SAY, "THIS IS THE END" ================| ELAPSED TIME OF TURBO ARSTAN RUN: 0.72 MINUTES