Selenge River, Mongolia Streamflow Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE CONTRIBUTORS WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: Selenge River, Mongolia Streamflow Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 4/2006 (Original receipt by WDC Paleo) CONTRIBUTOR: Nicole Davi, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2006-033 SUGGESTED DATA CITATION: Davi, N., et al. 2006. Selenge River, Mongolia Streamflow Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2006-033. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: Davi, N.K., G.C. Jacoby, A.E. Curtis, and N. Baatarbileg. 2006. Extension of Drought Records for Central Asia Using Tree Rings: West-Central Mongolia*. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, pp. 288-299, 15 January 2006. *Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory Contribution Number 6825. ABSTRACT: Central Asian drought has had drastic impacts on vast regions over recent years. Longer records and insight into temporal drought patterns could aid greatly in anticipating extreme events and agrarian planning. Mongolia is representative of the central Asian region, and tree-ring resources are used herein to extend the climate record and test for solar influence and/or Pacific Ocean teleconnections. Absolutely dated tree-ring-width chronologies from five sampling sites in west-central Mongolia were used in precipitation models and an individual model was made using the longest of the five tree-ring records (1340–2002). The tree-ring sites are in or near the Selenge River basin, the largest river in Mongolia and a major input into Lake Baikal in Siberia. Regression models resulted in a reconstruction of streamflow that extends from 1637 to 1997 and explains 49% of the flow variation. Spectral analysis indicated significant variation in the frequencies common to Pacific Ocean variations [Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and ENSO] and also some quasi-solar and lunar-nodal periodicities similar to previous Mongolian hydrometeorological reconstructions in eastern Mongolia based on tree rings. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Central Asia PERIOD OF RECORD: 1637 to 1997 AD FUNDING SOURCE: National Science Foundation (USA), Grants ATM 0117442 and OCE 0402474. DESCRIPTION: Tree-ring-based, principal component regression reconstruction of Selenge River, Mongolia streamflow. Reconstructed parameter is the average streamflow rate for the months April–October, years 1637–1997 AD. Also presented are 50-yr, 25-yr, and 10-yr moving averages. The tree ring data are available in the International Tree Ring Data Bank at the NOAA/WDC Paleo website: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/treering.html Ringwidth sites used in this study: MONG011 to MONG015. DATA: Column 1: Calendar Year Column 2: Selenge River, Mongolia average streamflow, April–October, cubic meters per second. Column 3: Selenge River, Mongolia average streamflow, April–October, 50-yr moving average. Column 4: Selenge River, Mongolia average streamflow, April–October, 25-yr moving average. Column 5: Selenge River, Mongolia average streamflow, April–October, 10-yr moving average. YEAR Recon 50-Yr 25-Yr 10-Yr 1638 148 139.95 133.06 154.32 1639 186.66 143 136.43 141.48 1640 134.2 146.06 139.88 128.82 1641 72.056 149.12 143.65 121.37 1642 87.322 152.21 147.93 124.61 1643 146.29 155.31 152.68 138.05 1644 167.46 158.4 157.65 156.28 1645 162.03 161.46 162.52 174.05 1646 219.32 164.45 167.02 187.19 1647 253.78 167.35 170.9 191.4 1648 153.07 170.16 174.11 187.01 1649 135.08 172.88 176.85 180.81 1650 216.69 175.51 179.28 176.47 1651 165.5 178.05 181.45 173.08 1652 141.56 180.52 183.5 172.53 1653 195.13 182.9 185.51 176.16 1654 177.68 185.2 187.43 182.39 1655 160.87 187.41 189.22 190.69 1656 203.6 189.52 190.79 199.74 1657 261 191.54 192 205.13 1658 234.93 193.44 192.73 203.49 1659 163.89 195.24 193.12 198.21 1660 116.43 196.95 193.43 196.47 1661 217.8 198.58 193.82 200.65 1662 225.89 200.14 194.24 204.35 1663 256.35 201.61 194.67 201.46 1664 213.29 203 195.25 189.94 1665 132.57 204.32 196.3 174.66 1666 155.1 205.6 198.2 163.2 1667 170.85 206.82 201.12 159.22 1668 126.4 207.99 205.07 164.7 1669 156.74 209.07 209.91 181.66 1670 189.41 210.04 215.21 207.75 1671 276.52 210.82 220.35 236.62 1672 275.03 211.38 224.63 260.35 1673 282.67 211.67 227.52 275.1 1674 284.27 211.66 228.7 279.79 1675 286.06 211.34 228.06 274.59 1676 266.06 210.72 225.72 260.67 1677 226.45 209.82 222.02 240.63 1678 220.25 208.7 217.45 217.56 1679 242.12 207.39 212.52 193.27 1680 129.72 205.94 207.8 170.79 1681 121.62 204.41 203.88 157.18 1682 136.13 202.83 201.08 155.62 1683 154.54 201.22 199.45 164 1684 229.64 199.59 198.74 177.02 1685 192.76 197.92 198.6 189.26 1686 181.66 196.21 198.69 200.61 1687 214.7 194.45 198.69 212.2 1688 207.8 192.65 198.22 223.36 1689 211.67 190.78 196.97 232.75 1690 285.83 188.87 194.64 236.97 1691 238.01 186.91 191.06 231.26 1692 263.47 184.93 186.33 215.59 1693 156.04 182.98 180.8 193.13 1694 121.51 181.12 175.02 171.24 1695 183.33 179.39 169.5 153.38 1696 155.47 177.85 164.62 137.65 1697 141.24 176.53 160.73 124.46 1698 65.443 175.47 158.15 117.25 1699 103.64 174.69 157.11 120.34 1700 134.12 174.2 157.5 132.67 1701 160.21 173.97 159.03 150.13 1702 170.16 173.99 161.3 168.59 1703 179.69 174.22 163.89 185.04 1704 205.99 174.62 166.44 196.77 1705 230.76 175.18 168.64 200.79 1706 224.93 175.86 170.35 195.69 1707 167.4 176.66 171.67 184.2 1708 142.01 177.57 172.85 172.42 1709 161.76 178.61 174.17 164.66 1710 153.12 179.75 175.82 161.58 1711 147.36 181 177.9 162.51 1712 220.08 182.32 180.43 165.44 1713 165.98 183.69 183.38 167.99 1714 128.86 185.1 186.77 173.01 1715 161.34 186.52 190.56 183.41 1716 222.87 187.92 194.55 196.89 1717 237.5 189.25 198.4 208.38 1718 177.71 190.48 201.9 215.69 1719 224.08 191.59 204.92 219.35 1720 308.78 192.55 207.31 216.83 1721 179.84 193.35 209.01 207.48 1722 163.16 194 210.25 199.6 1723 139.45 194.5 211.19 200.08 1724 212.3 194.86 211.82 209.72 1725 238.03 195.07 211.9 222.15 1726 259.44 195.11 211.15 230.08 1727 273.21 194.99 209.4 228.74 1728 224.41 194.74 206.69 217.95 1729 209.17 194.37 203.23 203.08 1730 145.54 193.95 199.36 191.49 1731 109.86 193.52 195.4 190.15 1732 179.59 193.11 191.46 199.33 1733 271.25 192.73 187.41 209.24 1734 293.8 192.42 183.06 207.58 1735 218.39 192.2 178.51 190.22 1736 130.12 192.12 174.26 164.31 1737 101.65 192.24 170.93 141.29 1738 107.16 192.62 169.03 128.76 1739 117.19 193.28 168.79 128.73 1740 134.77 194.22 170.23 139.65 1741 148.22 195.43 173.12 158.09 1742 178.67 196.88 177.13 179.54 1743 234.27 198.54 181.81 198.35 1744 211.96 200.35 186.75 209.41 1745 250.08 202.29 191.7 211.42 1746 200.31 204.31 196.53 205.26 1747 229.94 206.4 201.3 195.78 1748 131.07 208.53 206.14 189.19 1749 138.21 210.68 211.2 193.63 1750 184.75 212.82 216.41 210.62 1751 284.2 214.89 221.43 233.78 1752 256.27 216.85 225.82 253.87 1753 255.91 218.63 229.32 266.32 1754 325.75 220.21 231.8 267.82 1755 300.59 221.56 233.3 255.55 1756 192.14 222.69 234.16 233.62 1757 203.32 223.61 234.92 211.23 1758 178.72 224.34 236.06 194.25 1759 204.92 224.88 237.89 186.23 1760 139.62 225.24 240.54 189.4 1761 152.14 225.39 243.93 206.22 1762 281.43 225.32 247.63 233.1 1763 272.35 224.98 250.95 260.74 1764 272.37 224.33 253.2 283.8 1765 326.67 223.36 253.81 299.08 1766 322.18 222.06 252.32 303.23 1767 300.15 220.44 248.52 295.94 1768 283.82 218.54 242.46 279.7 1769 274.31 216.43 234.42 258.06 1770 198.65 214.18 224.83 235.5 1771 184.23 211.88 214.26 217.35 1772 193.49 209.61 203.19 204.67 1773 226.4 207.47 192.02 193.85 1774 215.6 205.52 181.11 180.07 1775 161.45 203.84 170.95 162.56 1776 110.3 202.53 162.1 145.03 1777 115.8 201.65 155.12 131.1 1778 167.05 201.25 150.38 120.39 1779 121.72 201.37 148.14 111.19 1780 84.581 202.01 148.64 106.54 1781 73.792 203.19 152.03 111.23 1782 99.621 204.87 158.21 127.04 1783 159.06 206.99 166.81 150.61 1784 220.63 209.47 177.22 174.94 1785 228.65 212.2 188.83 194.42 1786 193.23 215.11 201.13 209.28 1787 156.85 218.08 213.78 224.07 1788 259.03 221.03 226.38 240.82 1789 303.38 223.84 238.41 254.64 1790 268.42 226.41 249.42 262.04 1791 261.75 228.65 259.19 265.23 1792 260.96 230.5 267.59 268.28 1793 232.2 231.89 274.49 274.85 1794 262.75 232.76 279.75 286.67 1795 340.36 233.05 283.07 300.19 1796 307.82 232.71 284.12 309.34 1797 327.01 231.73 282.73 311.55 1798 355.92 230.1 278.88 305.54 1799 255.78 227.84 272.7 292.91 1800 212.23 225 264.57 279.93 1801 300.03 221.63 254.83 268.54 1802 299.7 217.79 243.69 253.54 1803 255.94 213.56 231.51 232.41 1804 165.01 209.02 218.83 208.87 1805 163.45 204.29 206.24 189.13 1806 172.52 199.46 194.21 174.8 1807 172.28 194.6 183.01 163.61 1808 208 189.8 172.84 152.64 1809 106.57 185.14 163.87 141.2 1810 117.95 180.67 156.33 133.73 1811 126.86 176.47 150.28 132.06 1812 113.11 172.57 145.64 135.38 1813 166.06 169.01 142.2 141.31 1814 162.76 165.79 139.68 145.71 1815 154.13 162.93 137.86 146.84 1816 141.25 160.44 136.59 145.58 1817 134.1 158.34 135.8 143.9 1818 132.28 156.62 135.43 143.23 1819 140.01 155.29 135.43 143.62 1820 166.01 154.35 135.73 143.6 1821 132.39 153.77 136.29 141.65 1822 156.45 153.56 137.16 138.24 1823 139.59 153.7 138.41 133.91 1824 98.81 154.17 140.16 131.01 1825 131.28 154.97 142.51 132.14 1826 134.71 156.06 145.46 136.65 1827 159.29 157.41 148.93 142.92 1828 149.74 158.97 152.81 149.55 1829 132.37 160.72 157.03 156.76 1830 172.41 162.59 161.47 164.63 1831 207.87 164.55 165.98 170.86 1832 146.47 166.55 170.43 174.33 1833 178.94 168.55 174.8 177.21 1834 208 170.52 179.04 179.81 1835 146.59 172.4 183.1 182.6 1836 147.48 174.18 187.02 188.12 1837 241.43 175.81 190.7 194.81 1838 246.45 177.25 193.95 197.2 1839 161.52 178.49 196.73 194.86 1840 155.4 179.5 199.17 192.82 1841 235.25 180.28 201.27 192.98 1842 185.88 180.81 202.95 193.55 1843 168.95 181.08 204.16 196 1844 221.04 181.08 204.81 201.35 1845 181.66 180.82 204.71 208.15 1846 229.13 180.28 203.69 215.62 1847 220.34 179.49 201.52 221.07 1848 255.2 178.44 198.07 222.49 1849 193.79 177.18 193.28 219.04 1850 194.07 175.73 187.27 212.57 1851 232.59 174.15 180.21 202.67 1852 205.92 172.5 172.32 187.16 1853 179.42 170.84 163.98 166.95 1854 114.17 169.25 155.71 146 1855 125.93 167.79 148.06 129.24 1856 112.01 166.54 141.47 118.52 1857 88.871 165.56 136.27 114.35 1858 111.55 164.87 132.68 115.83 1859 147.94 164.5 130.74 119.11 1860 149.85 164.47 130.42 120.01 1861 100.1 164.77 131.74 117.98 1862 124.79 165.41 134.75 115.88 1863 92.608 166.36 139.45 115.7 1864 145.84 167.61 145.73 119.3 1865 123.94 169.1 153.36 127.05 1866 98.486 170.8 162.07 141.41 1867 142.5 172.63 171.45 164.09 1868 199.29 174.52 180.9 191.69 1869 246.24 176.38 189.7 217.66 1870 250.61 178.14 197.2 236.4 1871 263.84 179.73 202.96 245.88 1872 234.05 181.11 206.74 246.72 1873 250.93 182.26 208.54 241.47 1874 240.27 183.15 208.48 232.05 1875 181.01 183.81 206.84 221.28 1876 205.51 184.25 203.99 212 1877 219.66 184.48 200.27 202.94 1878 223.64 184.53 196 191.52 1879 173.55 184.45 191.59 177.58 1880 127.65 184.26 187.5 164.62 1881 169.71 184.02 184.15 155.58 1882 158 183.74 181.75 149.84 1883 146.34 183.45 180.43 147.51 1884 133.75 183.16 180.24 149.85 1885 167.73 182.9 181.06 157.83 1886 142.58 182.64 182.64 170.95 1887 178.28 182.38 184.62 188.59 1888 213.63 182.11 186.55 207.17 1889 220.77 181.8 187.91 221.48 1890 270.22 181.45 188.31 226.69 1891 284.46 181.05 187.5 219.19 1892 174.99 180.63 185.53 201.57 1893 153.79 180.23 182.76 183.65 1894 106.83 179.89 179.59 173.38 1895 166.58 179.64 176.25 173.24 1896 219.71 179.52 172.77 177.8 1897 183.13 179.53 169.14 180.32 1898 176.4 179.71 165.48 178.32 1899 221.56 180.08 161.96 170.64 1900 149.66 180.66 158.87 157.3 1901 106.83 181.5 156.61 143.4 1902 140.92 182.62 155.61 133.57 1903 143.76 184.04 156.13 128.68 1904 87.376 185.75 158.33 129.78 1905 119.21 187.73 162.32 138.58 1906 182.34 189.97 167.96 152.26 1907 164.36 192.4 174.96 165.71 1908 209.83 194.98 183.03 176.35 1909 219.61 197.65 191.89 183.14 1910 107.93 200.34 201.33 189.45 1911 199.45 203.01 211.18 201.16 1912 235.32 205.59 221.03 216.58 1913 255.37 207.99 230.39 232.25 1914 231.65 210.16 238.8 247.17 1915 213.82 212.03 245.88 262.84 1916 316.21 213.55 251.24 278.5 1917 332.16 214.69 254.43 288.84 1918 263.44 215.41 255.2 292.32 1919 248.06 215.72 253.56 292.16 1920 314.03 215.63 249.59 288.53 1921 337.05 215.17 243.41 276.95 1922 258.61 214.39 235.36 255.98 1923 187.44 213.38 226.09 231.17 1924 182.83 212.2 216.35 208.78 1925 201.09 210.96 206.78 189.89 1926 207.14 209.73 197.9 172.07 1927 156.7 208.58 190.21 154.28 1928 138.92 207.58 184.19 139.46 1929 118.79 206.8 180.22 131.73 1930 75.442 206.28 178.49 134.85 1931 131.98 206.03 178.92 149.7 1932 211.32 206.06 181.12 170.18 1933 241.81 206.33 184.47 187.89 1934 201.45 206.82 188.49 199.64 1935 160.4 207.51 192.85 208.93 1936 188.89 208.37 197.28 219.62 1937 258.73 209.37 201.43 229.77 1938 290.09 210.49 204.94 233.73 1939 238.55 211.69 207.65 229.52 1940 170.31 212.97 209.7 222.03 1941 215.77 214.34 211.32 217.18 1942 167.75 215.77 212.68 215.72 1943 291.45 217.27 213.89 215.68 1944 214.34 218.81 215.01 212.01 1945 166.92 220.39 216.26 206.39 1946 248.4 222.01 217.89 201.64 1947 193.83 223.65 220.04 197.78 1948 138.6 225.31 222.86 198.55 1949 211.49 226.95 226.41 206.95 1950 246.98 228.56 230.5 219.75 1951 204.21 230.07 234.87 233.35 1952 274.46 231.47 239.23 246.35 1953 271.88 232.69 243.28 255.75 1954 223.78 233.72 246.8 261.11 1955 311.23 234.52 249.66 263.48 1956 259.11 235.07 251.73 261.64 1957 214.57 235.36 253.01 258.32 1958 278.31 235.39 253.56 256.08 1959 282.48 235.15 253.36 253.47 1960 221.48 234.66 252.43 250.95 1961 203.13 233.91 250.88 251.79 1962 271.58 232.93 248.72 255.71 1963 302.17 231.72 245.83 257.03 1964 282.46 230.3 242.15 251.59 1965 198.7 228.7 237.82 241.17 1966 228.13 226.96 233.1 230.82 1967 242.83 225.13 228.15 221.89 1968 184.85 223.23 223.12 214.9 1969 211.8 221.31 218.17 211.71 1970 203.7 219.4 213.35 211.59 1971 239.47 217.54 208.68 212.84 1972 182.18 215.75 204.15 213.62 1973 220.12 214.06 199.83 213.84 1974 222.32 212.5 195.76 211.02 1975 213.71 211.09 192.02 202.78 1976 235.41 209.86 188.82 188.38 1977 160.87 208.84 186.44 169.72 1978 118.59 208.06 185.31 153.64 1979 139.33 207.55 185.78 146.37 1980 123.42 207.29 187.94 150.09 1981 122.52 207.29 191.7 164.64 1982 212.58 207.49 196.73 185.83 1983 260.66 207.84 202.45 205.07 1984 214.29 208.29 208.34 216.91 1985 229.48 208.8 214.03 222.31 1986 247.95 209.32 219.25 223.58 1987 190.16 209.8 223.75 224.33 1988 206.09 210.24 227.38 230.03 1989 188.52 210.58 229.88 242.58 1990 301.65 210.8 230.89 259.11 1991 267.57 210.86 229.99 271.63 1992 272.07 210.74 226.93 275.05 1993 332.98 210.44 221.64 264.9 1994 250.59 209.99 214.26 238.03 1995 187.34 209.4 205.3 198.64 1996 112.61 208.75 195.41 153.7 1997 111.96 208.06 185.17 108.27