Shenandoah National Park - VA024
Additional Site Information
Pat Dougherty
Detrend method: Linear regression of any slope
Collection purpose: Ecology - insect outbreaks
Data was collected from two sites in SNP. These sites were the Upper
Staunton River area and Limberlost.
Data was gathered to support dissertation research on the impact of the
hemlock woolly adelgid which was first seen in 1988.
The number of cores collected was restricted by Park Service due to
possible impact to trees. The purpose was to see if pre-existing
conditions were present (slow growth) which may have set the stage for
hemlock decline due to adelgids attack. Growth prior to the adelgid was
observed to be very high(compared to past 100 years)and did not set stage
for attack. Trees of all ages were cored for this study.
COFECHA output:
Chronology file name : VA024.CRN
Measurement file name : VA024.RWL
Date checked : 07APR05
Checked by : H. ADAMS AND J. LUKAS
Beginning year : 1756
Ending year : 1997
Principal investigators: Pat Dougherty
Site name : Shenandoah National Park
Site location : Virginia
Species information : TSCA EASTERN HEMLOCK
Latitude : 3828
Longitude : -07828
Elevation : 975M
Series intercorrelation: 0.500
Avg mean sensitivity : 0.270
Avg standard deviation : 0.690
Avg autocorrelation : 0.738
Number dated series : 52
Segment length tested : 50
Number problem segments: 12
Pct problem segments : 5.80
PART 5: CORRELATION OF SERIES BY SEGMENTS: va024.rwl 15:58 Thu 07 Apr 2005 Page 5
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Correlations of 50-year dated segments, lagged 25 years
Flags: A = correlation under .3281 but highest as dated; B = correlation higher at other than dated position
Seq Series Time_span 1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950
1799 1824 1849 1874 1899 1924 1949 1974 1999
--- -------- --------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
1 Pat26-01 1780 1997 .53 .57 .56 .48 .59 .68 .74 .68
2 Pat23-02 1945 1996 .43 .46
3 Pat23-01 1939 1994 .49 .50
4 Pat16-02 1960 1996 .18B
5 Pat10-01 1946 1996 .38 .36
6 Pat8-02 1944 1996 .57 .64
7 Pat6-02 1920 1996 .50 .56 .47
8 Pat6-01 1936 1996 .36 .45
9 PAT14-01 1931 1996 .48 .42
10 PAT14-02 1904 1996 .61 .61 .54
11 PAT11-01 1957 1996 .64
12 PAT13-02 1926 1993 .52 .45
13 PAT15-02 1930 1995 .69 .57
14 PAT18-01 1951 1995 .54
15 PAT20-02 1954 1996 .42
16 PAT25-01 1833 1994 .58 .58 .63 .63 .55 .64
17 PAT26-02 1825 1996 .60 .54 .62 .58 .63 .69
18 PAT3-01 1921 1996 .66 .67 .45
19 PAT5-02 1942 1996 .52 .57
20 PAT13-01 1941 1995 .70 .66
21 PAT21-01 1953 1994 .47
22 PAT19-01 1949 1996 .46
23 PAT25-02 1833 1976 .54 .34 .33 .60 .45 .49
24 PAT4-01 1907 1995 .56 .48 .40
25 PAT8-01 1940 1996 .61 .57
26 PAT12-01 1938 1996 .33 .41
27 31 1880 1994 .47 .47 .58 .53
28 37A 1900 1992 .40 .44 .47
29 38A 1901 1992 .36 .51 .55
30 40A 1919 1991 .36 .38 .45
31 41A 1900 1992 .34 .31A .31A
32 42A 1920 1992 .53 .51 .50
33 51A 1850 1993 .36 .46 .49 .57 .61
34 32A 1830 1996 .46 .52 .53 .54 .70 .63
35 35A 1919 1987 .53 .46 .39
36 36A 1893 1991 .41 .49 .52 .56
37 62A 1911 1991 .38B .63 .62
38 62B 1908 1996 .44 .69 .67
39 63A 1937 1992 .30A .37
40 64A 1824 1995 .54 .53 .43 .55 .46 .44 .39
41 64B 1787 1984 .35 .58 .53 .46 .38 .22B .33 .34
42 66A 1823 1996 .59 .55 .53 .65 .71 .36 .16B
43 67A 1833 1995 .55 .57 .57 .52 .65 .56
44 68A 1804 1988 .48 .64 .50 .50 .55 .51 .44
45 68B 1756 1990 .27A .46 .57 .64 .62 .55 .51 .63 .49
46 70A 1789 1994 .38 .41 .65 .58 .52 .57 .53 .57
47 70B 1826 1995 .50 .31A .24B .46 .46 .46
48 71A 1767 1995 .22B .42 .61 .60 .43 .50 .72 .60 .57
49 71B 1777 1996 .70 .73 .62 .43 .41 .59 .65 .54
50 72A 1819 1991 .38 .52 .57 .53 .56 .61 .64
51 72B 1780 1990 .30B .37 .52 .44 .38 .53 .50 .46
52 73A 1895 1994 .66 .66 .71 .62
Av segment correlation .25 .45 .53 .56 .48 .50 .52 .53 .50
PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: va024.rwl 15:58 Thu 07 Apr 2005 Page 7
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Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\
No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR
Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr ()
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
1 Pat26-01 1780 1997 218 8 0 .589 1.26 2.86 .470 .623 .230 2.76 .379 -.011 3
2 Pat23-02 1945 1996 52 2 0 .446 1.76 4.67 1.085 .480 .434 2.97 .532 .048 1
3 Pat23-01 1939 1994 56 2 0 .507 2.37 6.46 1.676 .903 .286 2.65 .567 -.018 1
4 Pat16-02 1960 1996 37 1 1 .332 3.06 4.96 1.024 .507 .343 2.57 .532 -.056 1
5 Pat10-01 1946 1996 51 2 0 .375 1.59 3.34 .750 .755 .250 2.62 .513 -.006 2
6 Pat8-02 1944 1996 53 2 0 .616 1.44 3.51 .873 .922 .222 2.57 .479 -.031 1
7 Pat6-02 1920 1996 77 3 0 .512 1.40 3.50 .863 .887 .266 2.93 .559 -.038 1
8 Pat6-01 1936 1996 61 2 0 .405 2.06 4.32 1.015 .804 .277 2.51 .403 .050 1
9 PAT14-01 1931 1996 66 2 0 .433 1.12 2.60 .563 .786 .259 2.87 .496 .167 1
10 PAT14-02 1904 1996 93 3 0 .586 1.25 2.85 .639 .865 .210 2.69 .390 .058 4
11 PAT11-01 1957 1996 40 1 0 .644 2.29 3.68 .686 .514 .255 2.49 .437 .047 2
12 PAT13-02 1926 1993 68 2 0 .477 1.35 3.73 1.046 .927 .245 2.64 .534 -.093 3
13 PAT15-02 1930 1995 66 2 0 .609 1.33 2.49 .578 .751 .237 2.45 .494 .022 1
14 PAT18-01 1951 1995 45 1 0 .542 2.32 4.07 .613 .508 .203 2.62 .451 .005 1
15 PAT20-02 1954 1996 43 1 0 .416 1.79 3.73 .774 .820 .217 2.57 .416 -.037 2
16 PAT25-01 1833 1994 162 6 0 .603 1.31 4.30 .666 .784 .276 2.69 .497 .007 1
17 PAT26-02 1825 1996 172 6 0 .622 .83 2.30 .328 .638 .242 2.67 .494 -.045 1
18 PAT3-01 1921 1996 76 3 0 .495 1.59 4.39 1.142 .877 .285 3.01 .566 .039 1
19 PAT5-02 1942 1996 55 2 0 .516 1.32 2.50 .542 .888 .161 2.50 .517 .117 1
20 PAT13-01 1941 1995 55 2 0 .682 1.79 4.43 1.365 .917 .236 2.72 .498 -.046 1
21 PAT21-01 1953 1994 42 1 0 .470 1.54 4.58 .785 .772 .267 2.69 .541 .045 1
22 PAT19-01 1949 1996 48 1 0 .459 1.80 3.11 .645 .814 .219 2.72 .493 .110 1
23 PAT25-02 1833 1976 144 6 0 .487 1.36 3.86 .755 .832 .263 2.67 .478 -.064 1
24 PAT4-01 1907 1995 89 3 0 .581 .97 2.50 .587 .864 .297 2.93 .520 .008 3
25 PAT8-01 1940 1996 57 2 0 .560 1.72 4.90 1.050 .924 .256 2.95 .627 .121 1
26 PAT12-01 1938 1996 59 2 0 .375 1.30 7.10 1.084 .655 .319 2.74 .429 .068 1
27 31 1880 1994 115 4 0 .491 .68 1.59 .268 .681 .237 2.69 .453 -.007 1
28 37A 1900 1992 93 3 0 .451 .75 2.28 .501 .848 .262 3.13 .573 -.051 1
29 38A 1901 1992 92 3 0 .449 1.71 6.01 1.296 .894 .244 3.17 .614 -.031 1
30 40A 1919 1991 73 3 0 .345 1.89 4.19 .991 .890 .218 2.48 .368 -.027 1
31 41A 1900 1992 93 3 2 .295 1.98 3.59 .896 .878 .195 2.91 .555 -.042 1
32 42A 1920 1992 73 3 0 .521 1.52 4.54 .916 .822 .283 2.87 .448 -.040 1
33 51A 1850 1993 144 5 0 .477 .70 1.91 .391 .641 .341 2.78 .477 -.050 1
34 32A 1830 1996 167 6 0 .540 1.04 1.96 .287 .516 .209 2.65 .417 -.048 1
35 35A 1919 1987 69 3 0 .449 1.20 2.80 .567 .643 .314 3.13 .610 -.001 1
36 36A 1893 1991 99 4 0 .458 1.59 3.03 .653 .681 .278 2.39 .309 -.066 1
37 62A 1911 1991 81 3 1 .495 1.78 4.82 .913 .838 .195 2.44 .459 -.059 1
38 62B 1908 1996 89 3 0 .586 2.32 5.96 1.354 .845 .235 2.59 .373 -.068 1
39 63A 1937 1992 56 2 1 .276 2.62 6.14 .767 .509 .212 2.68 .440 -.101 1
40 64A 1824 1995 172 7 0 .478 1.07 2.53 .456 .731 .243 2.92 .511 -.036 1
41 64B 1787 1984 198 8 1 .388 1.32 4.14 .836 .853 .219 2.72 .454 .013 2
42 66A 1823 1996 174 7 1 .494 1.33 6.75 .679 .454 .271 3.05 .456 -.021 2
43 67A 1833 1995 163 6 0 .542 .88 2.10 .348 .514 .298 2.61 .411 -.031 2
44 68A 1804 1988 185 7 0 .481 1.01 2.72 .527 .739 .316 2.76 .356 -.019 1
45 68B 1756 1990 235 9 1 .489 1.06 3.31 .611 .770 .307 2.70 .404 -.025 1
46 70A 1789 1994 206 8 0 .522 1.12 4.06 .728 .834 .297 2.74 .487 -.035 2
47 70B 1826 1995 170 6 2 .417 .86 2.49 .475 .656 .377 2.70 .491 -.028 2
48 71A 1767 1995 229 9 1 .497 .98 2.97 .539 .629 .353 2.77 .477 .011 1
PART 7: DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS: va024.rwl 15:58 Thu 07 Apr 2005 Page 8
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Corr //-------- Unfiltered --------\\ //---- Filtered -----\\
No. No. No. with Mean Max Std Auto Mean Max Std Auto AR
Seq Series Interval Years Segmt Flags Master msmt msmt dev corr sens value dev corr ()
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
49 71B 1777 1996 220 8 0 .585 1.28 5.21 .962 .794 .348 2.94 .499 .006 1
50 72A 1819 1991 173 7 0 .512 1.35 2.91 .493 .692 .207 2.71 .444 -.036 2
51 72B 1780 1990 211 8 1 .430 .92 2.38 .476 .810 .261 2.54 .384 -.010 1
52 73A 1895 1994 100 4 0 .636 2.63 5.91 1.319 .841 .220 2.52 .477 -.016 1
--- -------- --------- ----- ----- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- --
Total or mean: 5665 207 12 .500 1.32 7.10 .690 .738 .270 3.17 .465 -.014