350 Year Unified ENSO Proxy Reconstruction ----------------------------------------------------------------------- World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder and NOAA Paleoclimatology Program ----------------------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: PLEASE CITE ORIGINAL REFERENCE WHEN USING THIS DATA!!!!! NAME OF DATA SET: 350 Year Unified ENSO Proxy Reconstruction LAST UPDATE: 7/2010 (Addition of scaled UEP series, see description below. Original receipt by WDC Paleo 1/2010) CONTRIBUTORS: McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, and O. Timm IGBP PAGES/WDCA CONTRIBUTION SERIES NUMBER: 2010-015 WDC PALEO CONTRIBUTION SERIES CITATION: McGregor, S., et al. 2010. 350 Year Unified ENSO Proxy Reconstruction. IGBP PAGES/World Data Center for Paleoclimatology Data Contribution Series # 2010-015. NOAA/NCDC Paleoclimatology Program, Boulder CO, USA. ORIGINAL REFERENCE: McGregor, S., A. Timmermann, and O. Timm. 2010. A unified proxy for ENSO and PDO variability since 1650. Climate of the Past, Vol. 6, pp. 1-17. www.clim-past.net/6/1/2010/ ABSTRACT: In this manuscript we have attempted to consolidate the common signal in previously defined proxy reconstructions of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation into one individual proxy titled the Unified ENSO Proxy (UEP). While correlating well with the majority of input reconstructions, the UEP provides better representation of observed indices of ENSO, discrete ENSO events and documented historical chronologies of ENSO than any of these input ENSO reconstructions. Further to this, the UEP also provides a means to reconstruct the PDO/IPO multi-decadal variability of the Pacific Ocean as the low-pass filtered UEP displays multidecadal variability that is consistent with the 20th century variability of the PDO and IPO. The UEP is then used to describe changes in ENSO variability which have occurred since 1650 focusing on changes in ENSOs variance, multiyear ENSO events, PDO-like multi-decadal variability and the effects of volcanic and solar forcing on ENSO. We find that multi-year El Nino events similar to the 1990–1995 event have occurred several times over the last 3 1/2 centuries. Consistent with earlier studies we find that volcanic forcing can induce a statistically significant change in the mean state of ENSO in the year of the eruption and a doubling of the probability of an El Nino (La Nina) event occurring in the year of (three years after) the eruption. GEOGRAPHIC REGION: Pacific Ocean PERIOD OF RECORD: 1650 - 1977 AD FUNDING SOURCES: US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CCDD program, grant number NA08OARH320910. DESCRIPTION: Unified ENSO Proxy combining ENSO and PDO/IPO Pacific climate variability. 10 commonly used ENSO proxies (Dunbar et al., 1994; Stahle et al., 1998; Cook, 2000; Mann et al., 2000; Evans et al., 2001, 2002; Cobb et al., 2003; Cook et al., 2008; Braganza et al., 2009) are consolidated via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) into a unified ENSO proxy (UEP) that captures the joint features of these reconstructions. A second scaled UEP column was added to this file in July 2010. The scaled column has 20th century variability scaled to match the variability of hadSST nino 3 region SSTA. DATA: Year UEP Scaled UEP 1650 0.344 0.168 1651 1.254 0.613 1652 0.692 0.338 1653 -0.599 -0.294 1654 -0.596 -0.293 1655 0.164 0.079 1656 1.027 0.501 1657 0.171 0.083 1658 0.463 0.225 1659 -0.025 -0.013 1660 0.199 0.096 1661 0.562 0.274 1662 0.131 0.063 1663 -0.375 -0.184 1664 -0.980 -0.480 1665 -0.421 -0.207 1666 -0.250 -0.123 1667 -0.249 -0.123 1668 -0.534 -0.262 1669 -0.269 -0.133 1670 -0.284 -0.140 1671 0.403 0.196 1672 -0.354 -0.174 1673 -0.237 -0.117 1674 0.611 0.298 1675 -0.118 -0.059 1676 -0.732 -0.359 1677 0.415 0.202 1678 -0.263 -0.130 1679 -0.617 -0.303 1680 0.183 0.088 1681 0.269 0.131 1682 0.740 0.361 1683 0.195 0.095 1684 -0.102 -0.051 1685 -1.134 -0.556 1686 0.266 0.129 1687 0.985 0.481 1688 0.200 0.097 1689 0.559 0.272 1690 0.367 0.179 1691 -0.051 -0.026 1692 0.622 0.303 1693 0.480 0.234 1694 0.673 0.328 1695 1.038 0.507 1696 -1.086 -0.532 1697 -0.528 -0.259 1698 -1.101 -0.539 1699 -0.220 -0.109 1700 -0.012 -0.007 1701 0.425 0.207 1702 0.260 0.126 1703 -0.717 -0.352 1704 -0.695 -0.341 1705 -0.501 -0.246 1706 -0.033 -0.017 1707 -0.554 -0.272 1708 -0.043 -0.022 1709 -0.537 -0.264 1710 1.122 0.548 1711 0.201 0.098 1712 0.522 0.255 1713 0.519 0.253 1714 -0.104 -0.052 1715 -0.782 -0.383 1716 -1.196 -0.586 1717 -0.534 -0.262 1718 0.986 0.481 1719 0.691 0.337 1720 0.636 0.310 1721 0.844 0.412 1722 0.592 0.288 1723 1.409 0.688 1724 0.224 0.109 1725 -1.228 -0.602 1726 1.327 0.648 1727 1.086 0.530 1728 -0.483 -0.237 1729 -0.570 -0.280 1730 -0.603 -0.296 1731 -0.373 -0.183 1732 -0.418 -0.205 1733 -1.500 -0.735 1734 0.068 0.032 1735 -0.043 -0.022 1736 0.247 0.120 1737 0.923 0.451 1738 1.118 0.546 1739 -0.660 -0.324 1740 0.000 -0.001 1741 0.224 0.109 1742 -1.600 -0.784 1743 -0.513 -0.252 1744 0.262 0.127 1745 1.135 0.554 1746 1.578 0.771 1747 1.806 0.882 1748 -0.996 -0.488 1749 1.096 0.535 1750 0.719 0.351 1751 0.287 0.139 1752 -1.884 -0.923 1753 -1.153 -0.565 1754 -0.739 -0.363 1755 -1.052 -0.516 1756 -0.211 -0.104 1757 -1.700 -0.833 1758 -0.625 -0.307 1759 0.421 0.205 1760 0.053 0.025 1761 -0.830 -0.407 1762 0.539 0.263 1763 -0.772 -0.379 1764 -0.063 -0.032 1765 -0.268 -0.132 1766 0.675 0.329 1767 0.395 0.192 1768 -0.070 -0.035 1769 0.327 0.159 1770 0.846 0.413 1771 0.685 0.334 1772 -0.673 -0.330 1773 -1.413 -0.692 1774 -0.208 -0.103 1775 -0.068 -0.034 1776 -0.450 -0.221 1777 -0.547 -0.269 1778 -0.880 -0.431 1779 -0.622 -0.305 1780 -0.060 -0.031 1781 -0.809 -0.397 1782 -1.074 -0.526 1783 0.824 0.402 1784 1.517 0.741 1785 -0.557 -0.274 1786 -1.072 -0.526 1787 -0.074 -0.037 1788 0.112 0.054 1789 -0.926 -0.454 1790 -1.458 -0.714 1791 1.306 0.638 1792 2.184 1.067 1793 1.675 0.818 1794 0.262 0.127 1795 0.615 0.300 1796 0.190 0.092 1797 -0.808 -0.396 1798 -0.808 -0.396 1799 0.872 0.426 1800 1.007 0.492 1801 -1.128 -0.553 1802 -0.845 -0.414 1803 -0.231 -0.114 1804 1.131 0.552 1805 -1.102 -0.540 1806 -0.936 -0.459 1807 0.365 0.178 1808 -0.872 -0.428 1809 -0.215 -0.106 1810 -0.001 -0.001 1811 -0.500 -0.246 1812 -0.535 -0.263 1813 -0.723 -0.355 1814 0.529 0.258 1815 1.174 0.573 1816 1.710 0.836 1817 0.296 0.144 1818 -1.126 -0.552 1819 -1.440 -0.705 1820 -1.972 -0.966 1821 0.393 0.191 1822 -0.567 -0.278 1823 -0.637 -0.312 1824 0.207 0.100 1825 0.619 0.302 1826 0.005 0.002 1827 1.011 0.494 1828 1.214 0.593 1829 0.861 0.420 1830 0.050 0.024 1831 -0.477 -0.234 1832 0.679 0.331 1833 2.146 1.049 1834 0.902 0.440 1835 0.027 0.012 1836 0.009 0.003 1837 1.020 0.498 1838 0.862 0.421 1839 2.169 1.060 1840 0.377 0.183 1841 0.065 0.031 1842 -0.865 -0.424 1843 0.040 0.018 1844 0.559 0.273 1845 0.417 0.203 1846 1.006 0.491 1847 -1.034 -0.507 1848 0.285 0.138 1849 0.196 0.095 1850 0.013 0.005 1851 -0.815 -0.400 1852 1.390 0.679 1853 0.792 0.386 1854 -0.221 -0.109 1855 -0.371 -0.183 1856 1.521 0.743 1857 -0.300 -0.148 1858 0.418 0.203 1859 -0.706 -0.346 1860 -1.118 -0.548 1861 -1.001 -0.491 1862 -1.036 -0.508 1863 -1.214 -0.595 1864 -1.661 -0.814 1865 0.530 0.258 1866 0.164 0.079 1867 0.019 0.009 1868 0.212 0.103 1869 1.687 0.824 1870 -0.674 -0.331 1871 -1.229 -0.602 1872 -0.937 -0.459 1873 -0.829 -0.406 1874 -0.163 -0.081 1875 0.229 0.111 1876 -0.450 -0.221 1877 1.161 0.567 1878 1.177 0.575 1879 -0.930 -0.456 1880 -1.824 -0.893 1881 0.386 0.188 1882 0.271 0.131 1883 -0.782 -0.383 1884 0.312 0.152 1885 1.669 0.816 1886 0.016 0.007 1887 -1.748 -0.856 1888 1.233 0.602 1889 1.355 0.662 1890 -1.448 -0.709 1891 -0.019 -0.010 1892 -0.345 -0.170 1893 -2.235 -1.094 1894 -1.742 -0.853 1895 -0.283 -0.139 1896 -0.387 -0.190 1897 1.397 0.683 1898 0.151 0.073 1899 -1.434 -0.702 1900 0.439 0.214 1901 1.037 0.506 1902 -0.977 -0.479 1903 1.673 0.817 1904 -1.858 -0.910 1905 2.417 1.181 1906 2.092 1.022 1907 0.461 0.224 1908 0.304 0.148 1909 -1.138 -0.558 1910 -2.098 -1.027 1911 -0.404 -0.199 1912 1.949 0.952 1913 0.901 0.440 1914 1.821 0.890 1915 2.070 1.012 1916 -0.544 -0.267 1917 -1.167 -0.572 1918 -1.690 -0.828 1919 2.350 1.148 1920 1.483 0.725 1921 -0.706 -0.346 1922 -1.255 -0.615 1923 -0.531 -0.261 1924 0.563 0.274 1925 -1.753 -0.859 1926 1.887 0.922 1927 -0.141 -0.070 1928 0.267 0.130 1929 -1.311 -0.642 1930 0.727 0.355 1931 2.218 1.084 1932 0.447 0.218 1933 -0.196 -0.097 1934 -1.689 -0.827 1935 -0.301 -0.148 1936 0.045 0.021 1937 0.440 0.214 1938 0.200 0.097 1939 -0.662 -0.325 1940 0.884 0.431 1941 3.031 1.482 1942 2.750 1.344 1943 -0.335 -0.165 1944 1.286 0.628 1945 0.250 0.121 1946 -1.655 -0.810 1947 0.454 0.221 1948 0.261 0.127 1949 0.293 0.142 1950 -1.643 -0.805 1951 -2.017 -0.988 1952 0.719 0.351 1953 -1.007 -0.494 1954 -1.116 -0.547 1955 -1.246 -0.610 1956 -2.018 -0.988 1957 -0.754 -0.370 1958 1.617 0.790 1959 -0.085 -0.042 1960 0.111 0.053 1961 -0.830 -0.407 1962 0.075 0.036 1963 -0.680 -0.333 1964 1.225 0.598 1965 0.223 0.108 1966 1.807 0.883 1967 -0.558 -0.274 1968 1.006 0.491 1969 0.800 0.390 1970 0.166 0.080 1971 -3.099 -1.517 1972 -1.022 -0.501 1973 1.878 0.918 1974 -3.067 -1.501 1975 -0.422 -0.208 1976 -0.747 -0.367 1977 0.650 0.317