# Solar Variability Over the Last 3000 Years #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # World Data Center for Paleoclimatology, Boulder # and # NOAA Paleoclimatology Program #----------------------------------------------------------------------- # NOTE: Please cite original publication, online resource and date accessed when using this data. # If there is no publication information, please cite Investigator, title, online resource and date accessed. # # Description/Documentation lines begin with # # Data lines have no # # # Online_Resource: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/study/18475 # # Online_Resource: http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/solar_variability/usoskin2014solar.txt # # Archive: Climate Forcing #--------------------------------------- # Contribution_Date # Date: 2015-04-26 #--------------------------------------- # Title # Study_Name: Solar Variability Over the Last 3000 Years #--------------------------------------- # Investigators # Investigators: Usoskin, I.G; Hulot, G; Gallet, Y.; Roth, R.; Licht, A.; Joos, F.; Kovaltsov, G.A.; Thebault, E.; Khokhlov, A. #--------------------------------------- # Description and Notes # Description: Solar variability, reconstructed from 14C data (Roth and Joos, 2013) using new archeomagnetic data (Licht et al., 2013). # Provided Keywords: Solar activiy, Holocene #--------------------------------------- # Publication # Authors: Usoskin, I.G; Hulot, G; Gallet, Y.; Roth, R.; Licht, A.; Joos, F.; Kovaltsov, G.A.; Thebault, E.; Khokhlov, A. # Published_Date_or_Year: 2014-02-20 # Published_Title: Evidence for distinct modes of solar activity # Journal_Name: Astronomy and Astrophysics # Volume: 562 # Issue: L10 # Pages: # Report Number: # DOI: 10.1051/0004-6361/201423391 # Abstract: Aims. The Sun shows strong variability in its magnetic activity, from Grand minima to Grand maxima, but the nature of the variability is not fully understood, mostly because of the insufficient length of the directly observed solar activity records and of uncertainties related to long-term reconstructions. Here we present a new adjustment-free reconstruction of solar activity over three millennia and study its different modes. Methods. We present a new adjustment-free, physical reconstruction of solar activity over the past three millennia, using the latest verified carbon cycle, 14C production, and archeomagnetic field models. This great improvement allowed us to study different modes of solar activity at an unprecedented level of details. Results. The distribution of solar activity is clearly bi-modal, implying the existence of distinct modes of activity. The main regular activity mode corresponds to moderate activity that varies in a relatively narrow band between sunspot numbers 20 and 67. The existence of a separate Grand minimum mode with reduced solar activity, which cannot be explained by random fluctuations of the regular mode, is confirmed at a high confidence level. The possible existence of a separate Grand maximum mode is also suggested, but the statistics is too low to reach a confident conclusion. Conclusions. The Sun is shown to operate in distinct modes - a main general mode, a Grand minimum mode corresponding to an inactive Sun, and a possible Grand maximum mode corresponding to an unusually active Sun. These results provide important constraints for both dynamo models of Sun-like stars and investigations of possible solar influence on Earth's climate. #--------------------------------------- # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: Academy of Finland # Grant: 272157 #--------------------------------------- # Funding_Agency # Funding_Agency_Name: Swiss National Science Foundation and the EU project Past4Future # Grant: 243908 #--------------------------------------- # Site Information # Site_Name: Global # Location: Geographic Region>Global # Country: # Northernmost_Latitude: 90.0 # Southernmost_Latitude: -90.0 # Easternmost_Longitude: 180.0 # Westernmost_Longitude: -180.0 # Elevation: #--------------------------------------- # Data_Collection # Collection_Name: Usoskin2014solar # First_Year: -1145 # Last_Year: 1945 # Time_Unit: AD # Core_Length: # Notes: #--------------------------------------- # Chronology: #--------------------------------------- # Variables # Data variables follow that are preceded by "##" in columns one and two. # Variables list, one per line, shortname-tab-longname components (9 components: what, material, error, units, seasonality, archive, detail, method, C or N for Character or Numeric data) ## age_AD age,,,AD,,,,,N ## SN Sunspot number,,,number,,,,,N ## SN-95 Sunspot number lower 95% bound,,,number,,Climate Forcing,,,N ## SN+95 Sunspot number upper 95% bound,,,number,,Climate Forcing,,,N ## Phi Modulation potential,,,MV,,Climate Forcing, see defintion in Usoskin et al. (JGR 110 A12108 2005),,N ## Phi-95 Modulation potential lower 95% bound,,,MV,,Climate Forcing,,,N ## Phi+95 Modulation potential upper 95% bound,,,MV,,Climate Forcing,,,N #------------------------ # Data # Data lines follow (have no #) # Data line format - tab-delimited text, variable short name as header # Missing Value: age_AD SN SN-95 SN+95 Phi Phi-95 Phi+95 -1145 68.3 50 87.2 653 484 833 -1135 66.8 47.6 90.7 695 530 893 -1125 44.5 30.4 61 494 381 638 -1115 45 29.9 60.8 485 360 617 -1105 51.6 35.4 67.4 529 391 674 -1095 59.2 41.5 79.8 589 450 755 -1085 58.1 40.8 76.4 576 437 734 -1075 63.7 46.1 85 622 471 811 -1065 67.1 48.7 87.8 640 497 826 -1055 61.6 42.8 79.4 642 475 789 -1045 55 38.5 74.3 541 401 701 -1035 61.1 44.8 79.2 610 464 766 -1025 60.5 43.7 78.8 611 471 776 -1015 54 37.6 72.6 584 430 755 -1005 46.8 32.6 65 513 388 676 -995 49.7 34.7 67.2 509 372 665 -985 52.4 37 69.3 561 429 713 -975 47.5 30.9 66.7 508 384 665 -965 47.5 33.5 64.6 480 367 614 -955 62.1 46.6 79.4 618 483 782 -945 58.5 41.3 77.6 606 452 778 -935 51.2 34.9 71.6 541 404 720 -925 46.7 31.4 65.1 516 373 685 -915 42 26 58.8 469 334 618 -905 36.4 22.6 52.1 445 322 593 -895 34.2 21 49 406 294 536 -885 38.4 23.2 55.3 432 298 574 -875 45.8 30.6 63.6 495 355 647 -865 51 32.1 68.9 527 367 681 -855 53 37.7 70.7 552 409 711 -845 47.4 31.7 67.2 535 399 720 -835 39.1 23.9 55.1 459 330 597 -825 38.1 23.8 54.4 448 322 588 -815 32.4 18.5 48.7 420 303 558 -805 21.2 9 34 346 242 467 -795 13.2 1.6 25.1 268 174 369 -785 12.9 1.2 24.9 261 171 360 -775 14.1 2.5 27 287 190 404 -765 11.1 0.7 21.9 262 171 359 -755 10.2 -1.7 22.6 253 154 355 -745 11.5 0.3 24.1 253 160 354 -735 14.3 3.2 25.8 276 189 371 -725 15.5 3.6 27.6 281 189 383 -715 18.8 7.1 31.3 307 207 416 -705 24.3 12.9 37.2 338 241 453 -695 39.4 27 53.8 389 287 518 -685 67.4 51 85.8 640 500 800 -675 58.7 41.8 77.7 661 516 851 -665 31.8 20.3 43.8 403 304 515 -655 40 30.1 50.2 410 316 508 -645 58.5 46.2 73.8 588 472 726 -635 59.6 44.6 75.3 602 474 752 -625 58.1 44 74.3 593 466 740 -615 60.6 46.7 75.2 585 457 708 -605 65.4 48.3 84.9 664 522 830 -595 55.4 42.9 70 583 473 726 -585 56.4 42.9 72.7 557 432 722 -575 63.7 48.2 81.1 623 483 784 -565 61.6 47.7 78.3 612 458 751 -555 57.7 42.5 75.8 607 466 777 -545 46.7 33.9 58.9 518 396 647 -535 44.2 31.7 57 470 358 598 -525 48.8 35.7 63.2 535 394 670 -515 42.6 31.3 56.8 471 359 600 -505 45.3 32.6 59.2 488 365 624 -495 49.2 36 65.4 530 416 694 -485 47.4 31.4 64.3 528 389 678 -475 50.7 38 65.1 513 411 642 -465 62 47.4 79.2 603 480 760 -455 63.3 47.1 83.2 636 496 830 -445 61.6 45 78.4 598 440 764 -435 69.7 52.9 89.2 671 523 860 -425 64.9 48.6 84.3 645 497 827 -415 51.4 36.3 69.3 598 456 767 -405 27.2 16.5 38.6 399 304 498 -395 13.7 4 24.9 279 194 378 -385 8.7 -0.3 18.6 237 156 329 -375 11.3 2.2 20.4 256 174 341 -365 11.8 2.2 22.7 273 190 364 -355 5.4 -3.5 15.1 226 150 311 -345 5.1 -4 15.3 202 130 285 -335 10.9 2.7 20.3 240 168 328 -325 20.8 10.7 32.1 303 217 406 -315 31.7 21.2 44.9 394 292 508 -305 36.3 25.4 50.5 410 307 546 -295 45.9 33.4 60.7 479 370 597 -285 55.6 40.2 72 559 432 703 -275 59.8 44.7 74.4 598 461 744 -265 60.3 45.3 78.5 624 485 794 -255 54.6 38.3 73.4 541 398 722 -245 62.2 47.9 78.3 622 479 775 -235 54.8 40.2 73 588 445 746 -225 52.2 41.1 66.4 512 391 637 -215 58.4 42.7 74.4 637 515 780 -205 38.6 27.7 50.7 465 371 582 -195 34.8 24.6 45.5 401 299 508 -185 39.4 27.2 52.1 456 347 583 -175 36.8 24.9 50.7 449 335 568 -165 32.8 22.4 43.5 399 309 499 -155 33.8 22.4 44.8 407 306 520 -145 40.8 29.5 52.3 448 347 553 -135 49.6 37.2 62.4 515 399 647 -125 54.1 42.4 69.1 565 454 699 -115 47.5 35.2 59.9 520 406 646 -105 47 36.1 60.2 497 391 628 -95 47.3 36 59.1 522 422 639 -85 45.9 34 60.6 478 369 611 -75 58.5 45.1 72.9 571 454 699 -65 58.9 46.2 72.7 607 485 760 -55 49.9 36.5 62.2 547 444 657 -45 38.8 27.9 48.8 460 356 559 -35 37.1 27.5 46.4 415 321 515 -25 48.5 37.3 60.6 523 412 632 -15 49.7 39.2 61.2 501 407 611 -5 56.8 43.7 68 620 477 751 5 43.8 34.3 56.1 469 374 586 15 50.2 39.7 62.1 549 439 684 25 45.6 33.1 60.9 487 377 626 35 51.2 37.7 67.4 521 400 662 45 58 44.3 72.1 613 487 758 55 47.7 36.1 62.3 512 395 629 65 46 32.2 59.7 509 397 623 75 41.1 30.1 52.4 471 378 571 85 38.7 27.5 51.5 441 336 558 95 43.8 32.9 55.3 459 356 565 105 54.9 40.3 69.8 561 433 703 115 54.1 41 71 573 451 728 125 39.8 27.9 52.4 482 380 600 135 31.9 21.3 44 384 291 484 145 40.4 27.9 52.7 442 350 553 155 44.6 33.4 57.6 483 371 601 165 48 34.8 62.9 516 402 648 175 49.3 37.3 62.7 513 397 639 185 53.6 41 70.4 542 424 678 195 59 43.2 77.6 596 464 748 205 57.9 44.3 77 593 457 774 215 50.6 36.6 63.2 545 420 683 225 45.6 34 59 512 404 643 235 38.2 27.8 48.1 460 351 591 245 32.6 22.4 42.5 413 329 521 255 26.2 16.2 35.7 374 287 474 265 22.5 15.1 30.2 310 228 395 275 39.4 28.7 50.4 428 329 538 285 48.2 35.8 60.7 506 410 631 295 53 41.5 67.8 529 426 651 305 60.2 45.9 74.6 622 491 782 315 52.1 38.9 65.8 561 439 689 325 47.1 35.9 60.3 511 390 644 335 43.3 30.2 55.9 484 371 608 345 43.6 31.8 55.2 475 367 588 355 49.2 37 61.1 510 393 635 365 55.8 42.9 69.2 569 446 709 375 57.4 43.5 72.7 597 482 732 385 49.1 37.9 61.7 519 409 633 395 48.3 36.7 63.7 524 416 657 405 45.6 33.2 57.8 517 401 644 415 41.5 29.9 55.7 477 378 595 425 34.5 23.5 46 426 328 531 435 31.4 21.5 42.6 388 299 497 445 38.3 27.6 51.3 428 331 531 455 43.9 33.7 54.4 491 393 603 465 44.8 32.6 57.6 491 383 611 475 51 38.3 63.6 508 411 620 485 64.6 51.9 79 609 488 740 495 67.6 52.9 81.9 664 542 793 505 65.4 50.1 82.1 637 505 785 515 67.9 52.9 82 640 519 769 525 67.3 54.5 85.2 684 548 843 535 48.8 37.2 62.9 538 434 668 545 42.4 32.2 52.5 465 383 567 555 47.4 38.4 59.7 519 433 645 565 44.8 34.7 56.4 491 404 590 575 45.6 36.9 55.1 496 393 601 585 48.2 38.1 59.8 515 430 620 595 47.2 37.1 58.3 522 431 625 605 41.9 33.4 51.2 470 378 560 615 43.8 33.9 55.4 481 398 581 625 48.6 38.8 60.8 516 420 626 635 47.8 37.2 59.6 528 419 640 645 34.7 25.3 44 450 356 535 655 24.3 15.9 34.1 363 293 447 665 20.2 11.1 30.4 319 243 402 675 20.4 10.6 31 319 240 415 685 19.5 10.1 29.5 316 234 401 695 22.1 13.3 31.4 318 235 407 705 27.9 19.7 37.6 374 299 468 715 27.4 18.9 38.2 367 298 479 725 29.4 18.6 38.9 374 279 458 735 37.1 28.9 45.7 406 333 478 745 51.4 38.8 64.7 535 434 645 755 51.9 42.8 62.2 566 481 664 765 37.5 28.1 46.9 475 390 567 775 22.4 15.5 30.5 343 280 418 785 26.1 17.7 33.8 323 245 388 795 38.2 29 47.2 459 381 538 805 34.3 25 43.4 419 338 514 815 35.5 27.2 44.3 425 343 511 825 39.1 30.4 48.4 441 367 529 835 43.8 34.9 54 475 389 576 845 50 38.8 61.5 526 422 630 855 50.8 41.4 60.7 534 435 625 865 49.1 38.8 59.9 523 427 623 875 45.9 33.2 56.6 517 418 615 885 34 22.7 44.3 446 353 527 895 24.3 16.9 33 353 290 421 905 28.1 19.2 37.1 342 270 419 915 43.9 33.6 54.5 456 367 540 925 57.5 44.5 72.7 589 482 722 935 51.4 39.9 63.7 545 448 649 945 48.3 37.9 59.9 513 426 612 955 51.7 41.6 61.4 541 454 627 965 47.3 37.9 57.4 522 438 609 975 40 32 49.5 471 396 546 985 33.8 26.4 42.4 425 361 496 995 30.2 22.6 39 368 302 446 1005 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3.7 18 239 182 299 1335 18.7 11.5 26.7 284 227 345 1345 32.6 25.2 40.3 381 318 448 1355 47.2 38.8 56.1 481 410 562 1365 54.7 44.3 65.3 564 481 650 1375 46.6 37 57 546 457 634 1385 27.6 20 36 393 332 463 1395 17.7 10.8 25.3 307 250 369 1405 13.7 6.5 21.4 280 226 337 1415 11.3 4.1 18.8 255 199 315 1425 9.5 2.8 17.4 249 199 310 1435 5.6 -1.4 13.2 227 176 288 1445 0.1 -7 7.5 183 129 240 1455 -3 -10.5 5.1 150 94 211 1465 -0.1 -7 7.4 167 111 225 1475 2.6 -4.2 10.3 194 140 255 1485 3.4 -3.7 10.3 203 147 260 1495 3.7 -2.2 10 203 154 253 1505 3.6 -2.1 9.7 205 158 255 1515 2.9 -3.3 9.6 198 150 248 1525 4.4 -2 10.8 196 147 245 1535 10.1 4.1 16.3 233 187 284 1545 17.7 11.2 24.7 289 236 346 1555 22.8 16.1 29.7 336 281 394 1565 25.1 18.9 31.9 341 290 394 1575 31.5 24.5 38 395 332 457 1585 36.9 29.9 43.7 413 349 476 1595 48.4 40.1 56.3 500 433 568 1605 48.9 40.2 59 548 473 634 1615 36.3 28.5 44.9 442 384 517 1625 29 22.2 36.8 394 333 463 1635 21 15.1 27.5 342 294 398 1645 13.4 7.2 20 274 229 326 1655 11.4 4.8 18.6 263 213 324 1665 8.4 2 15.4 242 190 296 1675 4.2 -2.1 10.9 213 166 264 1685 2.2 -4.1 8.7 193 146 243 1695 3.3 -2.7 9.6 194 151 241 1705 7 0.9 13.7 221 178 272 1715 13.2 6.8 20.1 238 192 289 1725 30.6 23.6 38.5 359 303 419 1735 44.3 36.6 52.8 489 427 555 1745 43.2 35.5 51.9 488 425 559 1755 42.6 34.8 50 458 397 519 1765 48.6 41.2 56.7 524 460 589 1775 52.6 45.5 60.1 499 447 552 1785 66.2 56.9 76.1 685 612 763 1795 41.5 34 49.4 509 449 576 1805 24.8 17.2 32.9 363 305 424 1815 23.3 16.8 30.7 323 275 378 1825 34.4 27.8 41.8 392 340 449 1835 45 39.9 51.2 504 460 557 1845 43 38.1 48.9 469 426 522 1855 46.6 40.9 52.4 506 457 555 1865 46.3 41.1 51.7 504 462 546 1875 42.9 36.6 49.4 490 439 544 1885 33.5 28.6 38.7 435 393 485 1895 25.6 20.9 30.4 347 309 384 1905 29.9 23.8 36.1 386 339 432 1915 32.5 24.9 40.6 392 338 447 1925 38.6 27.2 51.4 453 376 537 1935 37.2 24.7 52.5 441 355 539 1945 36.3 21.8 55.3 430 333 546