------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 110044 CCA DGTGUM DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1000 AM CHST FRI FEB 11 2022 PMZ181-250600- MAJURO- 1000 AM CHST FRI FEB 11 2022 ...EXTREME DROUGHT EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... .SYNOPSIS: The ITCZ pulsed across the Marshalls the past week or so, with decent showers at Majuro, Ailinglaplap, Mili, Jaluit and farther to the northwest around Namu and Kwajalein. Mainly dry weather continued for atolls north of Majuro, and all atolls north of 9.5N. La Nina continues based on large-scale oceanic and atmospheric conditions. A series of westerly wind bursts in December 2021 induced a downwelling oceanic kelvin wave. This downwelling kelvin wave is expected to set the stage for a weakening La Nina signal the next several months. It is possible an ENSO neutral pattern may set up by late spring. Overall expectations are for drought to continue to worsen across the northern Marshall Islands the next month or so before showers begin to pick up in March. This largely follows climatology and seasonal climate model guidance. Recent rainfall (inches) for select islands across the Republic of the Marshall Islands. % of normal rainfall based on 1991-2020 rainfall data. Dec Dec Jan Jan Feb 1-8 Feb 1-8 % Norm % Norm % Norm Wotje 2.55 63 0.00 0 0.00 Kwajalein 3.74 50 1.25 28 2.17 Majuro 8.76 74 4.73 57 7.24 Ailinglaplap 12.11 109 1.77 29 4.10 Mili 16.90 165 4.04 44 6.27 Jaluit 17.51 166 4.64 55 2.79 .SUMMARY OF IMPACTS: *D3 Extreme drought * -- Wotje and RMI atolls near and north of 9.5N *D2 Severe drought* -- Kwajalein and nearby atolls *D1 Moderate drought* -- Ailinglaplap RMI, Fananu FSM For the latest drought map for the US Affiliated Pacific Islands visit https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi *D3 Extreme Drought* Northern Marshall Islands near and north of 9N: This includes, but is not limited to, Wotje, Ailuk, Mejit, remote islands of Kwajalein atoll, Wotho, Utirik, Maloelap, Ebadon, Namu, Jabot, Aur. --------------------------------------------- Many catchments are very low or empty. Some wells are salty but well water levels are still decent. Catchment water is being used for drinking only on many islands with some using coconuts for hydration. Plants are yellow to brown with some plants absent of leaves. Some fruits are dropping prematurely. Some islands have reverse osmosis units but many are inoperable. Many islands have 2-4 weeks of water left if no rain falls. D2 Severe Drought* Islets of Kwajalein atoll: Water resources are stressed on parts of Kwajalein atoll. Impacts on remote islands of Kwajalein such as Ebadon and Mejatto are more in line with the extreme drought section discussed above. .DROUGHT MITIGATION ACTIONS: The Marshall Islands National Disaster Management Office is mobilizing to provide relief to the northern Marshall Islands. For additional information, please contact National Weather Service Office Guam. .LOCAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK: Wotje and nearby atolls: Mainly dry trade-wind weather is expected the next several weeks. Model consensus is for around 0.50" of rain through late February. This will lead to worsening drought conditions. There are conflicting signals as to how long the drought will last for the northern Marshall Islands. Climatology would bring decent rains (>4"/month) back by April. On the other hand, long-range models continue to indicate wetter than normal conditions for the northern Marshall Islands the next several months. Confidence is admittedly low as to when decent rains will return, but mid to late March seems reasonable based on all guidance. Kwajalein and nearby atolls: Models indicate 0.50" to 1.00" of rain through late February. This is likely to lead to worsening drought, particularly the remote islets of Kwajalein atoll. Decent rains look to return around mid March based on long-range model output and the expectation for waning La Nina conditions the next few months. .NEXT ISSUANCE DATE: The next Drought Information Statement will be issued Friday, Feb 25 2022 or sooner if necessary. .RELATED WEBSITES: -US Drought Monitor for the United States Affiliated Pacific Islands- https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?usapi -National Weather Service Guam- https://www.weather.gov/gum/Hydrology -Pacific ENSO Applications Climate (PEAC) Services- https://www.weather.gov/peac -Climate Prediction Center Global Tropics Hazards and Benefits Outlook- https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/ghazards/ -Coral reef watch satellite monitoring- https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/satellite/index.php .ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: This drought statement is a combined effort involving regional National Weather Service offices, Richard Heim and the USAPI drought monitor team, Chip Guard at Tropical Weather Sciences, the Climate Prediction Center, PEAC Services, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Mark Lander at University of Guam, USAID subregional offices and the NOAA/NESDIS coral reef watch program. .QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS PRODUCT? PLEASE CONTACT: National Weather Service 3232 Hueneme Road Barrigada, GU 96913 http://www.weather.gov/gum phone: 671-472-0953 e-mail: brandon.bukunt@noaa.gov / marcus.aydlett@noaa.gov $$ Bukunt/Aydlett ------------------------------------------------------------------------