Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 745 AXGM70 PGUM 250300 DGTGUM PMZ181-GUZ001>004-080400- MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1245 PM CHST THU JUL 25 2019 ...DROUGHT SLOWLY IMPROVING FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE WIND FLOW PATTERN HAS SPREAD INCREASING RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA. THIS PATTERN IS ALSO SPREADING TO THE MORE NORTHERN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS...DROUGHT REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL FOR UTIRIK AND EXTREME FOR WOTJE ATOLLS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK IN THE WEST TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE IN THE EAST REMAIN VERY DRY...WHILE THE AREAS AROUND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED PERIODS OF USEFUL SHOWERS. SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI AND MAJURO HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT MULTI-DAY PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FOR MAJURO. PEOPLE OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES...SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. THOSE WILL PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM DROUGHT...AND DROUGHT SEVERITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE. A SEASONAL CHANGE TO PERIODS OF MONSOONAL FLOW OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA WAS WEAKER THAN EXPECTED. DESPITE THIS...CONDITIONS HAVE BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR RAIN. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK OF THE RMI REMAINS IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4)...WHILE WOTJE HAS IMPROVED TO EXTREME DROUGHT OR LEVEL D3-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI HAVE IMPROVED TO MODERATE DROUGHT OR DROUGHT D1-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). BOTH GUAM AND ROTA ARE IN SHORT- TERM MODERATE DROUGHT OR DROUGHT LEVEL D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). Kwajalein...MAJURO AND JALUIT IN THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ARE AT SHORT-TERM MODERATE DROUGHT LEVEL D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). OTHER LOCATIONS ARE DESIGNATED ABNORMALLY DRY OR NO DROUGHT. GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... UTIRIK AND WOTJE HAVE RECEIVED PATCHY SHOWERS RECENTLY AS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES PASSED ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...THE EFFECTS OF DROUGHT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES IN AREAS FROM ENEWETAK AND BIKINI TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...UJAE...RONGELAP...AILUK AND MEJIT ISLAND. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS...DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OVER MAJURO BUT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO RETURN WITHIN A WEEK. REPORTS FROM MAJURO SHOW THE RESERVOIR DOWN TO 66 PER CENT CAPACITY. WATER RESTRICTIONS MAY BE NEEDED BECAUSE RAINFALL COULD BE VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALLS FOR THE NEXT WEEK... INCLUDING MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP...MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED ON MAJURO AND EBEYE DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... SOMEWHAT DRY WEATHER CONTINUES BUT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN RATHER EVENLY DISTRIBUTED BOTH TIME-WISE AND AREA-WISE. ALL OF THE ISLANDS ARE TURNING GREEN BUT WITH GUAM BROWNER THAN THE CNMI. GUAM... RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED AND ISLAND CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL INTO EARLY AUGUST. THE FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN REDUCED FROM EXTREME TO HIGH. CLIMATE SUMMARY... TRADE-WIND FLOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA WHILE SURFACE TROUGHS AND CONVERGING WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MICRONESIA. DROUGHT REMAINS EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT BUT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED SOON. DESPITE THE LATE OCCURRENCE OF THE EL NINO...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER... INCLUDING THIS POST-EL NINO DROUGHT. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-MAY DEC-MAY DEC-MAY JUNE JUL JUL JUL NORM (%) 1-22 1-22NORM (%) RMI UTIRIK 6.39 16.04 40 5.29 2.68 3.83 70 WOTJE 13.10 19.14 68 3.34 3.82 3.06 124 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 26.00 31.82 82 4.76 2.21 6.99 32 WSO MAJURO 50.64 54.50 93 11.31 2.78 8.47 33 MILI 59.68 56.73 105 14.41 4.60 9.50 48 AILINGLAPLAP 38.67 44.70 87 9.83 1.60 8.18 20 JALUIT 36.42 59.22 62 6.14 1.47 8.96 16 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 115.38 104.37 111 15.08 5.94 11.38 52 WSO POHNPEI 81.39 89.37 91 23.56 8.01 11.42 70 LUKUNOR 54.26 65.52 83 14.80 6.25 11.68 54 WSO CHUUK 61.19 61.18 100 14.62 6.15 8.79 70 POLOWAT* 18.73 44.31 42 7.56 2.47 7.45 33 WOLEAI ATOLL 31.47 50.68 62 19.26 4.53 8.93 51 WSO YAP 43.10 42.13 102 13.14 13.14 10.67 123 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 44.63 67.34 66 16.30 10.15 14.10 72 MARIANAS SAIPAN AIRPORT 15.83 17.39 91 2.11 3.16 5.87 54 TINIAN AIRPORT 16.20 20.12 81 3.37 4.39 7.40 59 ROTA AIRPORT 19.57 27.71 71 1.51 7.86 7.60 103 GUAM AIRPORT 23.43 26.12 90 2.85 2.85 8.62 33 * POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... TRADE WINDS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF 10N ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BRIGHT SUNSHINE DURING THIS SEASON...AND PATCHY CLOUDS PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER AND FOOD RESOURCES. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... RAINFALL SHOULD IMPROVE NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 INCHES UP TO 3 INCHES FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE BUT PASSING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT PERSISTS BUT MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 1.5 INCHES FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND VARIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE SUFFICIENT SHOWERS FOR CATCHMENTS. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MARIANAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 8 AUGUST 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && SPECIAL NOTE...IN SEPTEMBER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER WILL CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE SERVICES PROGRAM. THE ACRONYM WILL REMAIN AS PEAC. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE SERVICES AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS EXTEND FARTHER OVER NEARLY ALL OF MICRONESIA FROM THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 25N. THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND THE EASTERN FEDERATED STATES OF MICRONESIA ARE IN CORAL BLEACHING WARNING AREAS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) GUARD $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------