Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 110028 DGTGUM PMZ181-GUZ001>004-250400- MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1030 AM CHST THU JUL 11 2019 ...DROUGHT CONTINUES ONLY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE WIND FLOW PATTERNS HAVE SPREAD RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA RECENTLY AND THAT PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE FARTHER NORTH IN THE COMING WEEKS. BUT...THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM WILL REMAIN DRIER THAN NORMAL UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. DESPITE SOME PASSING SHOWERS...DROUGHT REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY WHILE THE AREAS AROUND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED SHOWERS AT TIMES. SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI AND MAJURO HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER ARE STILL LIKELY. PEOPLE OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALLS ISLANDS IN PARTICULAR SHOULD CONTINUE WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES...SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS DEVELOPING FARTHER NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. MEANWHILE...DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL BE A LONGER- TERM PROCESS. ALSO...A SEASONAL CHANGE TO MONSOONAL FLOW OVER WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA COULD DEVELOP BY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE RMI REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI REMAIN IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). BOTH GUAM AND ROTA ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). OTHER LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY BUT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN ALL AREAS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... UTIRIK AND WOTJE HAVE RECEIVED PATCHY SHOWERS RECENTLY AS TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES PASSED ACROSS THE AREA AND THAT PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE. OTHERWISE...THE EFFECTS OF DROUGHT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES IN AREAS FROM ENEWETAK AND BIKINI TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...UJAE... RONGELAP...AILUK AND MEJIT ISLAND. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OVER MAJURO AND RAINFALL WILL BE SPOTTY DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. REPORTS FROM MAJURO SHOW THE RESERVOIR DOWN TO 77 PER CENT CAPACITY. WATER RESTRICTIONS WILL BE NEEDED BECAUSE RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALLS...INCLUDING MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP...MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS AND DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD STILL MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... DRY WEATHER CONTINUES BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL WILL LIKELY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH JULY. FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE EXTREME OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. GUAM... RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED AND ISLAND CONVECTION HAS PRODUCED SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF JULY. THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM. CLIMATE SUMMARY... TRADE-WIND FLOW PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA WHILE SURFACE TROUGHS AND CONVERGING WINDS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN MICRONESIA. DROUGHT REMAINS EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL FOR THE AREAS NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATE OCCURRENCE OF THE EL NINO...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER...INCLUDING THIS POST-EL NINO DROUGHT. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-APR DEC-APR DEC-APR MAY JUNE JUNE JUNE NORM (%) NORM (%) RMI UTIRIK 5.20 11.71 44 1.19 5.29 3.64 145 WOTJE 10.44 14.22 73 2.66 3.34 5.61 60 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 15.29 25.21 61 10.71 4.76 7.86 61 WSO MAJURO 34.50 44.64 77 16.14 11.31 10.93 103 MILI 48.14 46.81 103 11.54 14.41 10.14 142 AILINGLAPLAP 28.39 33.92 84 10.28 9.83 10.92 90 JALUIT* 29.75 48.37 62 6.67 6.14 10.37 59 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 88.47 85.89 103 26.91 15.08 15.58 97 WSO POHNPEI 72.45 71.02 110 8.94 23.56 15.77 149 LUKUNOR 50.51 52.74 96 3.75 14.80 11.97 124 WSO CHUUK 56.45 49.45 114 4.74 14.62 12.21 120 POLOWAT** 16.54 34.05 49 2.19 7.56 10.81 70 WOLEAI ATOLL 28.51 39.78 72 2.96 19.26 12.48 154 ULITHI*** 25.17 23.54 107 5.01 9.20 10.25 90 WSO YAP 35.95 33.63 107 7.15 13.14 13.20 100 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 37.85 53.19 71 6.78 16.30 17.04 96 MARIANAS SAIPAN AP 10.05 14.62 69 5.78 2.11 4.50 47 TINIAN AP 12.27 16.76 73 3.93 3.37 5.05 74 ROTA AP 17.58 23.70 74 1.99 1.51 5.20 29 GUAM AP 20.82 21.82 95 2.61 2.85 7.09 40 * JALUIT INSTRUMENT LOCATION MOVED AND CORRECTED IN APRIL ** POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP *** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... TRADE WINDS ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF 10N ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. MEANWHILE THE WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BRIGHT SUNSHINE DURING THIS SEASON...AND PATCHY CLOUDS PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER AND FOOD RESOURCES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... RAINFALL SHOULD IMPROVE NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 INCHES UP TO 4 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE BUT PASSING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY ABOUT ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO IS CURRENTLY IN A RELATIVELY DRY WIND FLOW. WATER SUPPLIES ON THE MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT PERSISTS BUT MORE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND VARIABLE RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES OR MORE FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. GUAM WILL RECEIVE THE HIGHER AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY IF A MONSOON FLOW DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK...WHILE THE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH WILL RECEIVE SOME PASSING SHOWERS AT TIMES. SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS... AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER CONTINUES OVER THE REGION. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 25 JULY 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && SPECIAL NOTE... IN SEPTEMBER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER WILL CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE PROGRAM. THE ACRONYM WILL REMAIN AS PEAC. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AND WATCH AREAS EXTEND FARTHER NORTH OVER NEARLY ALL OF MICRONESIA FROM BELOW THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND 25N. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON/BUKUNT $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------