Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 270123 DGTGUM PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-110400- KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1120 AM CHST THU JUN 27 2019 ...DROUGHT PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA WHILE CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED OVER SOUTHERN MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE WIND FLOW PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED AND HAVE SPREAD RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MICRONESIA. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY DRIER THAN NORMAL UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. DESPITE A FEW DAYS OF GOOD RAINFALL...DROUGHT REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY WITH ONLY PASSING SHOWERS. AREAS AROUND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED GOOD SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI AND MAJURO HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT PERIODS OF DRIER WEATHER MAY YET DEVELOP. PEOPLE OF THE FAR NORTHERN RMI IN PARTICULAR SHOULD CONTINUE WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES...SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. COMPUTER MODELS STILL SHOW THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS INDICATE SOME RELIEF AS WIND FLOW PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED AND PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THESE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS AT TIMES...BUT RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL BE A LONGER-TERM PROCESS. THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA SOUTH OF 10N SEEM TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME AND WILL BE EXCLUDED FROM THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE RMI REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). BOTH GUAM AND ROTA ARE IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). OTHER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ARE STILL IN MODERATE DROUGHT OR ABNORMALLY DRY BUT A GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... UTIRIK REPORTED 4.87 INCHES AND WOTJE 3.22 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN JUNE SO FAR. TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES PASSED ACROSS THE AREA RECENTLY...BUT THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS WILL LIKELY BE DRY. EFFECTS OF DROUGHT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES IN AREAS FROM ENEWETAK AND BIKINI TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...UJAE... RONGELAP...AILUK AND MEJIT ISLAND. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... DRY WEATHER IS CURRENTLY OVER MAJURO BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA IN THE PAST WEEKS. REPORTS FROM MAJURO INDICATE THE RESERVOIR IS AT 98 PER CENT CAPACITY AND THAT WATER RESTRICTIONS HAVE BEEN GREATLY REDUCED. VARIABLE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALLS...INCLUDING MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT... AILINGALAPLAP...MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. MAJURO HAS RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL JUNE RAINFALL BUT DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD STILL MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY BUT ONLY PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL WILL BE BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH JUNE. FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE EXTREME OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. GUAM... THE RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY AND ISLAND CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST THROUGH JUNE. THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM. IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... RAINFALL PATTERNS HAVE IMPROVED OVER AREAS SOUTH OF 10N AND BENEFICIAL RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA THROUGH THE COMING WEEKS. SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES COULD STILL BE AT RISK FOR DRY PERIODS AND PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES. CLIMATE SUMMARY... DRY TRADE WINDS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA WHILE PASSING SURFACE TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCED SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICRONESIA RECENTLY. DROUGHT REMAINS EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATE OCCURRENCE OF THE EL NINO...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER...INCLUDING THIS POST-EL NINO DROUGHT. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-APR DEC-APR DEC-APR MAY JUNE JUNE JUNE NORM (%) 1-25 1-25NORM (%) RMI UTIRIK 5.20 11.71 44 1.19 4.87 3.03 161 WOTJE 10.44 14.22 73 2.66 3.22 4.68 69 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 15.29 25.21 61 10.71 4.40 6.55 67 WSO MAJURO 34.50 44.64 77 16.14 10.96 9.11 120 MILI 48.14 46.81 103 11.54 13.59 8.45 161 AILINGLAPLAP 28.39 33.92 84 10.28 8.98 9.11 99 JALUIT* 29.75 48.37 62 6.67 4.17 8.64 49 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 88.47 85.89 103 26.91 13.49 12.98 104 WSO POHNPEI 72.45 71.02 110 8.94 23.43 13.14 178 LUKUNOR 50.51 52.74 96 3.75 14.56 9.98 146 WSO CHUUK 56.45 49.45 114 4.74 12.65 10.18 124 POLOWAT** 16.54 34.05 49 2.19 6.79 9.01 75 WOLEAI ATOLL 28.51 39.78 72 2.96 16.14 10.40 155 ULITHI*** 25.17 23.54 107 5.01 6.73 8.54 79 WSO YAP 35.95 33.63 107 7.15 9.62 11.00 87 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 37.85 53.19 71 6.78 12.25 14.20 86 MARIANAS SAIPAN AP 10.05 14.62 69 5.78 1.78 3.75 47 TINIAN AP 12.27 16.76 73 3.93 1.71 4.21 41 ROTA AP 17.58 23.70 74 1.99 1.30 4.33 30 GUAM AP 20.82 21.82 95 2.61 2.52 5.91 43 * JALUIT INSTRUMENT LOCATION MOVED AND CORRECTED IN APRIL ** POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP *** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10N. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BRIGHT SUNSHINE DURING THIS SEASON...AND PATCHY CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER AND FOOD RESOURCES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... LOW RAINFALL WILL PERSIST NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AT TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE UP TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK AND ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE BUT PASSING TRADE-WIND TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE SHOULD PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS ONLY ABOUT ONE INCH FOR THE NEXT WEEK AND ONLY 1 TO 3 INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO IS CURRENTLY IN A DRY WIND FLOW BUT SHOULD RECEIVE SOME SHOWERS AT TIMES NEXT WEEK. WATER SUPPLIES ON THE MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED ALTHOUGH THE RESERVOIR AT MAJURO IS CURRENTLY AT 98 PER CENT STORAGE CAPACITY. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NEXT WEEK AND RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. GUAM COULD ALSO RECEIVE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WHILE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH WILL RECEIVE ONLY PASSING SHOWERS. SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU...YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... RELATIVELY WET WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED OVER THESE SOUTHERN AREAS...AND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN MICRONESIA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD TO 130E. LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED MAINLY FOR THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF SOUTHERN MICRONESIA. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 11 JULY 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && SPECIAL NOTE... IN SEPTEMBER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER WILL CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE PROGRAM. THE ACRONYM WILL REMAIN AS PEAC. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AND WATCH AREAS EXTEND FAR NORTH FROM THE EQUATOR ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND ALONG THE EQUATOR SOUTH OF 10N TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON/BUKUNT $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------