Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 130010 DGTGUM PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-270400- KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1010 AM CHST THU JUN 13 2019 ...EXTREME TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS OVER NORTHERN MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE POST EL NINO DRY WEATHER PATTERN PERSISTS...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10N...BUT WIND FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE AND HELP SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN AND NORTHERN YAP STATE ALONG WITH NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND GUAM REMAIN MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. THE WEATHER OVER THESE AREAS WILL BE RELATIVELY DRY FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS ALTHOUGH SOME WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED IN JUNE. DROUGHT REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS SHOULD CONTINUE STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. AREAS AROUND MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW SHOWERS. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY BUT PATCHY SHOWERS COULD START PASSING OVER THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT DRIER WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. COMPUTER MODELS SUPPORT THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RELIEF AS WIND FLOW PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED AND PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND OVER THESE MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS...BUT RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL BE A LONG-TERM PROCESS. THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE OF THE RMI REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI REMAIN IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-L (LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4) AND ROTA EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT- TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). GUAM HAS IMPROVED TO SEVERE DROUGHT D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). CHUUK LAGOON AND FANANU ALONG WITH YAP ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). PALAU...KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AND WOLEAI ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT- TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY). SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... UTIRIK REPORTED 1.15 INCH AND WOTJE REPORTED 0.45 INCH OF RAINFALL IN JUNE SO FAR. A FEW PASSING TRADE-WIND SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. MORE SHOWERS WILL START DEVELOPING OVER AREAS FROM ENEWETAK AND BIKINI TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...UJAE... RONGELAP...AILUK AND MEJIT ISLAND BUT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES RELATED TO WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... WEATHER IS CURRENTLY DRY AT MAJURO BUT SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS MOVED OVER THIS AREA IN THE PAST WEEKS. RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. THIS INCLUDES MAJURO...ARNO... MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP AND MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. MAJURO HAS RECEIVED SUBSTANTIAL JUNE RAINFALL BUT DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. IT WAS REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES CAUSED SOME FIRES ON MAJURO. THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE AND IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER. GRASSLAND FIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OF THE DRY ISLETS...AND THEY CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY WITH BRISK TRADE WINDS. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED A LITTLE RECENTLY AND A FEW PASSING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL MAY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH JUNE AT LEAST. FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE EXTREME OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. GUAM... THE RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY AND ISLAND CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH JUNE AT LEAST. THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM. IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF ABOUT 8N TO 10N...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN PARTS OF YAP AND CHUUK STATES. BENEFICIAL RAINFALL HAS DEVELOPED IN JUNE OVER SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA AND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE. SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE COMING WEEKS SINCE RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE REGION. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. PASSING SURFACE TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCED SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS RECENTLY. DROUGHT REMAINS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATE OCCURRENCE OF THE EL NINO...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-APR DEC-APR DEC-APR MAY JUNE JUNE JUNE NORM (%) 1-11 1-11NORM (%) RMI UTIRIK 5.20 11.71 44 1.19 1.15 1.33 86 WOTJE 10.44 14.22 73 2.66 0.45 2.06 22 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 15.29 25.21 61 10.71 1.57 2.88 55 WSO MAJURO 34.50 44.64 77 16.14 4.37 4.01 109 MILI 48.14 46.81 103 11.54 8.78 3.72 236 AILINGLAPLAP 28.39 33.92 84 10.28 0.85 4.00 21 JALUIT* 29.75 48.37 62 6.67 1.52 3.80 40 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 88.47 85.89 103 26.91 3.89 5.71 68 WSO POHNPEI 72.45 71.02 110 8.94 7.19 5.78 124 LUKUNOR 50.51 52.74 96 3.75 9.32 4.39 212 WSO CHUUK 56.45 49.45 114 4.74 3.84 4.48 86 POLOWAT** 16.54 34.05 49 2.19 4.79 3.96 121 WOLEAI ATOLL 28.51 39.78 72 2.96 10.05 4.58 219 ULITHI*** 25.17 23.54 107 5.01 3.00 3.39 89 WSO YAP 35.95 33.63 107 7.15 4.28 4.84 88 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 37.85 53.19 71 6.78 7.94 6.25 127 MARIANAS SAIPAN AP 10.05 14.62 69 5.78 0.50 1.65 30 TINIAN AP 12.27 16.76 73 3.93 0.64 1.85 35 ROTA AP 17.58 23.70 74 1.99 0.40 1.91 21 GUAM AP 20.82 21.82 95 2.61 1.06 2.60 41 * JALUIT INSTRUMENT LOCATION MOVED AND CORRECTED IN APRIL ** POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP *** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...BRIGHT SUNSHINE DURING THIS SEASON...AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... LOW RAINFALL IS STILL EXPECTED NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN RMI. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THE NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 6 INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO IS CURRENTLY DRY BUT SHOULD START RECEIVING SHOWERS IN THE COMING DAYS. WATER SUPPLIES ON THE MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED. PEOPLE ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT WILL PERSIST BUT A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NEXT WEEK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH DURING THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. GUAM COULD ALSO RECEIVE SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS WHILE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH WILL RECEIVE ONLY PASSING SHOWERS. SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... YAP IS CURRENTLY IN A DRY FLOW AND PALAU REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY BUT THE RAINFALL PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER SOUTHERN MICRONESIA. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 6 INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD TO 130E...INCLUDING PARTS OF YAP AND CHUUK STATES...WHILE HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5N. LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 27 JUNE 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AND WATCH AREAS REMAIN FAR NORTH FROM THE EQUATOR ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS AND ALONG THE EQUATOR TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON/BUKUNT $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------