Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 300058 DGTGUM PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-130400- KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM CHST THU MAY 30 2019 ...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT PERSISTS ACROSS PARTS OF MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE POST EL NINO-LIKE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO JUNE OF 2019...BUT WIND FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD SLOWLY CHANGE AND THAT WILL HELP SPREAD PATCHY RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN ALONG WITH YAP STATE AND PALAU REMAIN MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE RECEIVED SHOWERS RECENTLY BUT RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST. DROUGHT REMAINS EXCEPTIONAL FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS SHOULD CONTINUE STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. AREAS AROUND MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS RECENTLY. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY BUT PATCHY SHOWERS COULD START PASSING OVER THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT DRIER WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. COMPUTER MODELS SUPPORT THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RELIEF AS WIND FLOW PATTERNS CHANGE AND PATCHY SHOWERS DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH...BUT RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL BE A LONG-TERM PROCESS AT BEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME...THEY SHOULD CONTINUE PLANS FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. PALAU AND YAP STATE...AND THE MARIANAS AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD PLAN ON DRY WEATHER. NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARANGI AND KOSRAE SHOULD REMAIN WET. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI HAVE IMPROVED TO EXTREME DROUGHT D3-L (LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4) WHILE GUAM AND ROTA REMAIN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). PALAU ALONG WITH YAP AND WOLEAI OF YAP STATE...AND CHUUK LAGOON AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AND MAJURO OF THE RMI ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4) AND OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY). SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... UTIRIK REPORTED ONLY 0.08 AND WOTJE REPORTED 0.40 INCH OF RAINFALL IN MAY SO FAR. SPOTTY SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH IN THE COMING WEEKS BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N WILL REMAIN VERY DRY. SOME SHOWERS WILL START DEVELOPING OVER AREAS FROM UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...BIKINI...UJAE...RONGELAP...AILUK AND MEJIT ISLAND BUT DROUGHT WILL PERSIST UNTIL MUCH MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES RELATED TO WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. THESE LOCATIONS INCLUDE MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP AND MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. MAJURO HAS RECEIVED ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL SO FAR IN MAY BUT DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. IT WAS REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES CAUSED SOME FIRES ON MAJURO. THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE AND IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER. GRASSLAND FIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OF THE DRY ISLETS...AND THEY CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY WITH BRISK TRADE WINDS. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SUBSTANTIAL AT TIMES. THE RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL MAY BE BELOW NORMAL INTO JUNE. FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES WILL STILL BE A PROBLEM DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. FIRE DANGER MAY STILL BE EXTREME OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. GUAM... THE RAINFALL HAS IMPROVED RECENTLY AND ISLAND CONVECTION PRODUCED SOME SUBSTANTIAL SHOWERS BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL INTO JUNE. THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM. IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... THERE HAVE BEEN PATCHY AREAS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN MAY BUT THE DRY WEATHER HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE AND PALAU AND FOR ONUON AND POLOWAT OF CHUUK STATE. SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE COMING WEEKS SINCE VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES. ULITHI AND FAIS ARE VERY DRY...BUT REPORTS FROM AN EDUCATOR ON WOLEAI ATOLL HAS COMMUNICATED WITH OTHER YAP STATE ATOLLS AND INDICATES THAT "CATCHMENTS ARE FULL!" ON ALL ATOLLS FROM WOLEAI TO SATAWAL AND FROM EAURIPIK TO FARAULEP. CLIMATE SUMMARY... RELATIVELY DRY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION. PASSING SURFACE TROUGHS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAVE PRODUCED ONLY PATCHY AREAS OF SHOWERS RECENTLY. DROUGHT REMAINS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATENESS OF THE EL NINO ADVISORY...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER AND IT LOOKS LIKE MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A POST-EL NINO DRY PERIOD. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-MAR DEC-MAR DEC-MAR APR MAY MAY MAY NORM (%) 1-28 1-28 NORM (%) RMI UTIRIK 5.12 8.65 59 0.08 0.35 3.91 9 WOTJE 10.04 10.71 94 0.40 2.66 4.44 60 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 14.16 19.00 75 1.13 10.06 5.97 169 WSO MAJURO 31.16 35.01 89 3.34 15.19 8.91 170 MILI 45.21 36.36 124 2.93 10.77 8.96 120 AILINGLAPLAP 27.67 26.60 104 0.72 10.28 9.74 105 JALUIT* 22.91 36.53 63 6.84 6.67 9.80 68 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 54.42 66.37 82 23.96 22.28 16.69 133 WSO POHNPEI 58.59 53.27 110 11.41 7.28 16.57 44 LUKUNOR 35.43 40.88 87 14.30 3.63 11.54 31 WSO CHUUK 50.45 37.23 136 6.00 3.71 10.59 35 POLOWAT** 11.80 25.36 47 4.74 1.98 9.18 22 WOLEAI ATOLL 24.29 31.35 77 3.95 2.32 9.85 24 ULITHI*** 19.71 22.14 89 2.03 4.44 5.51 81 WSO YAP 33.03 27.91 118 2.90 6.34 7.68 83 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 30.96 42.63 73 6.89 6.14 12.78 48 MARIANAS SAIPAN AP 9.12 12.30 74 0.93 4.77 2.51 190 TINIAN AP 10.49 14.05 75 1.78 3.79 3.03 125 ROTA AP 16.17 19.04 85 1.41 1.79 3.62 49 GUAM AP 19.70 18.24 108 1.15 2.58 3.88 66 * JALUIT DEC 2018 RAINFALL UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO INSTRUMENT LOCATION ** POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP *** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SUN OVERHEAD DURING THIS SEASON...AND ONLY PATCHY CLOUDS WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE FOR THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS...BUT PASSING SHOWERS COULD PRODUCE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN RMI. RAINFALL MAY STILL BE VARIABLE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES THIS NEXT WEEK AND 3 TO 5 INCHES THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO SHOULD RECEIVE SHOWERS AT TIMES. WATER SUPPLIES ON THE MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE MAY CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED. PEOPLE ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT WILL PERSIST BUT A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF ABOUT A HALF INCH IN THE NEXT WEEK AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. GUAM WILL RECEIVE SOME SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WHILE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH SHOULD RECEIVE PASSING SHOWERS AT TIMES. SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... PALAU AND YAP ARE CURRENTLY IN A DRY FLOW AND RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE DURING THE COMING WEEKS. PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES OVER THE REGION AND COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD TO 130E. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE NEAR KOSRAE AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR. LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 13 JUNE 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WARNING AND WATCH AREAS HAVE EXPANDED MUCH FARTHER NORTH FROM THE EQUATOR ACROSS THE MARIANA AND INTO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON/BUKUNT $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------