Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 160127 DGTGUM PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-300400- KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1130 AM CHST THU MAY 16 2019 ...SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE POST EL NINO-LIKE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MAY OF 2019...BUT WIND FLOW PATTERNS SHOULD START SLOWLY CHANGING AND THAT WOULD HELP SPREAD RAINFALL OVER THE REGION. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF KWAJALEIN...THE ISLANDS OF GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND OTHER AREAS SUCH AS YAP STATE AND PALAU REMAIN MUCH DRIER THAN NORMAL. DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED BUT SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE COMING DAYS. SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND GUAM HAVE ALL SEEN VERY DRY WEATHER...AND PASSING SHOWERS DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO COULD PROVIDE SOME NEEDED RAINFALL. GUAM ESPECIALLY COULD RECEIVE EXTRA SHOWERS FROM ISLAND CONVECTION. DROUGHT DEEPENED FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS SHOULD CONTINUE STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. AREAS AROUND MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE HAVE RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS RECENTLY. AREAS FROM ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK AND WOTJE REMAIN VERY DRY BUT PATCHY SHOWERS COULD START PASSING OVER THESE AREAS. THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS BUT DRIER WEATHER MAY DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS ARE STARTING TO INDICATE SOME RELIEF AS WIND FLOW PATTERNS CHANGE AND PATCHY SHOWERS DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH...BUT RELIEF FROM DROUGHT WILL BE A LONG-TERM PROCESS AT BEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME...THEY SHOULD PLAN FOR DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS. PALAU AND YAP STATE...AND THE MARIANAS AND MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD PLAN ON DRY WEATHER. NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARANGI AND KOSRAE SHOULD REMAIN WET. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK AND WOTJE ARE NOW IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE CNMI REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-S (SHORT- TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). KWAJALEIN/EBEYE OF THE MARSHALLS AND GUAM AND ROTA REMAIN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). YAP AND MAJURO HAVE IMPROVED TO SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4) PALAU AND WOLEAI OF YAP STATE AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE ARE SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). AILINGLAPLAP OF THE RMI AND CHUUK LAGOON ARE IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). OTHER ISLANDS REMAIN ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY). SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... UTIRIK REPORTED ONLY 0.05 AND WOTJE REPORTED 1.60 INCH OF RAINFALL IN MAY SO FAR. SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER NORTH RECENTLY ACROSS THE KWAJALEIN/EBEYE AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N REMAIN VERY DRY. PATCHY SHOWERS COULD START DEVELOPING OVER AREAS FROM UTIRIK AND WOTJE TO KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...BIKINI...UJAE...RONGELAP... AILUK...AND MEJIT ISLAND BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATES. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES RELATED TO WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ALTHOUGH KWAJALEIN REPORTED NEARLY 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN EARLY MAY. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS INCLUDE MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP... MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. RELATIVELY LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. MAJURO HAD ONLY 3.34 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN APRIL. IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES HAVE CAUSED SOME FIRES ON MAJURO. THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE RECENTLY AND IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER. GRASSLAND FIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OF THE DRY ISLETS...AND THEY CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY WITH BRISK TRADE WINDS. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW SO FAR IN MAY AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY AND BRIEF. RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REGION THROUGH MAY. FIRE DANGER IS EXTREME IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. GUAM... RAINFALL HAS BEEN VERY LOW SO FAR IN MAY. SPOTTY SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED RECENTLY BUT TOTAL RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MAY. THE FIRE DANGER REMAINS EXTREME WITH A HIGH RISK OF WILD FIRES ACROSS GUAM. IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... THERE WERE AREAS OF BENEFICIAL RAINFALL IN EARLY MAY BUT DRY WEATHER HAS RE-DEVELOPED OVER MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE AND PALAU. SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE COMING WEEKS SINCE VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES. ULITHI AND FAIS ARE VERY DRY...BUT REPORTS FROM AN EDUCATOR ON WOLEAI ATOLL HAS COMMUNICATED WITH OTHER YAP STATE ATOLLS AND INDICATES THAT "CATCHMENTS ARE FULL!" ON ALL ATOLLS FROM WOLEAI TO SATAWAL AND FROM EAURIPIK TO FARAULEP. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THERE HAVE BEEN TROPICAL DISTURBANCES OVER THE REGION IN THE PAST WEEKS AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE HAS PRODUCED HELPFUL RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA BUT DROUGHT REMAINS EXTREME AND SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATENESS OF THE EL NINO ADVISORY...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER AND IT LOOKS LIKE MORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A POST-EL NINO DRY PERIOD. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-MAR DEC-MAR DEC-MAR APR MAY MAY MAY NORM (%) 1-13 1-13 NORM (%) RMI UTIRIK 5.12 8.65 59 0.08 0.05 1.82 3 WOTJE 10.04 10.71 94 0.40 1.60 2.06 78 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 14.16 19.00 75 1.13 5.93 2.77 214 WSO MAJURO 31.16 35.01 89 3.34 11.73 4.13 284 MILI 45.21 36.36 124 2.93 8.20 4.16 197 AILINGLAPLAP 27.67 26.60 104 0.72 2.58 4.52 57 JALUIT* 22.91 36.53 63 6.84 4.28 4.55 94 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 54.42 66.37 82 23.96 18.17 7.75 234 WSO POHNPEI 58.59 53.27 110 11.41 3.15 7.70 41 LUKUNOR 35.43 40.88 87 14.30 1.27 5.36 24 WSO CHUUK 50.45 37.23 136 6.00 0.74 4.92 15 POLOWAT** 11.80 25.36 47 4.74 0.40 4.26 9 WOLEAI ATOLL 24.29 31.35 77 3.95 2.27 4.57 50 ULITHI*** 19.71 22.14 89 2.03 2.37 2.50 95 WSO YAP 33.03 27.91 118 2.90 3.39 3.56 95 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 30.96 42.63 73 6.89 3.26 5.93 55 MARIANAS SAIPAN AP 9.12 12.30 74 0.93 0.57 1.16 49 TINIAN AP 10.49 14.05 75 1.78 0.22 1.41 16 ROTA AP 16.17 19.04 85 1.41 0.34 1.68 20 GUAM AP 19.70 18.24 108 1.15 0.09 1.80 5 * JALUIT DEC 2018 RAINFALL UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO INSTRUMENT LOCATION ** POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP *** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON WSO YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SUN OVERHEAD DURING THIS SEASON...AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THERE MAY BE LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE...BUT AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL LIKELY RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK...AND 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN RMI. RAINFALL MAY STILL BE VARIABLE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO SHOULD RECEIVE HELPFUL SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE WATER SUPPLIES ON MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED. PEOPLE ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA BUT SOME SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF 1 OR 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT WEEK WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE LOWER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN. THE ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH COULD ALSO START RECEIVING NEEDED SHOWERS. SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD REMAIN PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. EXTREME FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... WEATHER HAS DRIED OUT AGAIN OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY FOR YAP STATE AND PALAU. PALAU AND YAP RECEIVED HELPFUL SHOWERS IN EARLY MAY BUT ARE CURRENTLY IN A DRY FLOW. CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES HAVE ALL RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA IN THE NEXT WEEK...WITH 1 INCH OR POSSIBLY 2 INCHES AT BEST FOR PALAU AND YAP STATE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. AT WENO AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE...THE RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS AND NAMONUITO ATOLL. POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH 2 TO 5 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE NEAR KOSRAE AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD TO 130E. LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 30 MAY 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF 10N FROM 130E EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THE AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI. FOR INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) SIMPSON/BUKUNT $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------