National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Tiyan, GU Drought Information Statement Issued by NWS Tiyan, Guam ------------------------------------------------------------------------ 000 AXGM70 PGUM 020308 DGTGUM PMZ161-171>174-181-GUZ001>004-160400- KOROR PALAU-YAP-CHUUK-POHNPEI-KOSRAE-MAJURO-GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 115 PM CHST THU MAY 2 2019 ...DROUGHT FURTHER WORSENS OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA... SYNOPSIS... THE POST EL NINO-LIKE DRY WEATHER PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MAY OF 2019. THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO...THE ISLANDS OF GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS AND OTHER AREAS SUCH AS NORTH-WESTERN YAP STATE HAVE RECEIVED MUCH LESS THAN NORMAL RAINFALL OVER THE PAST FEW MONTHS. WHILE STILL DRIER THAN NORMAL...THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU HAS RECEIVED CONSIDERABLY MORE RAIN THAN THE OTHER LOCATIONS. THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS OVER THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAVE WORSENED AND THAT TREND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE COMING WEEKS. SAIPAN...TINIAN...ROTA AND GUAM HAVE ALL SEEN VERY DRY WEATHER...AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW WEEKS LONGER. DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE DEEPENED FOR ATOLLS AND ISLANDS OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT RESIDENTS OF THESE ATOLLS CONTINUE THEIR STRICT WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. MAJURO HAS ALSO BEEN DRY RECENTLY WHILE THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF THE RMI HAVE RECEIVED PATCHY BUT SUFFICIENT RAINFALL. MUCH DRIER WEATHER COULD DEVELOP AND ALL PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD SERIOUSLY CONSIDER WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES. SEE SUGGESTIONS BELOW AND CONTACT LOCAL WATER MANAGERS FOR WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES. COMPUTER MODEL GUIDANCE STRONGLY SUPPORTS THE PREDICTION THAT DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF MICRONESIA INCLUDING THE MARSHALL ISLANDS AND THE MARIANA ISLANDS. MODELS INDICATE SOME RELIEF FOR YAP STATE AND THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU IN WESTERN MICRONESIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CONSOLIDATES SOUTHEAST OF YAP AND DRIFTS TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA APPEAR TO HAVE SUFFICIENT WATER RESOURCES AT THIS TIME...THEY SHOULD PLAN FOR SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL WEEKS...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN CHUUK STATE TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. NUKUORO...KAPINGAMARANGI AND KOSRAE SHOULD REMAIN WET. THE OPERATIONAL U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK IS NOW IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-SL (SHORT AND LONG-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). WOTJE OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALLS...AND SAIPAN AND TINIAN OF THE MARIANAS REMAIN IN EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT D4-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN/EBEYE OF THE MARSHALLS...GUAM AND ROTA AND YAP REMAIN IN EXTREME DROUGHT D3-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). PALAU AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE ARE IN SEVERE DROUGHT LEVEL D2-S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 2 OF 4). AILINGLAPLAP OF THE MARSHALLS IS IN MODERATE DROUGHT D1S (SHORT-TERM DROUGHT LEVEL 1 OF 4). WOLEAI OF YAP STATE IS ABNORMALLY DRY D0-S (SHORT-TERM ABNORMALLY DRY) BUT THERE HAVE BEEN MISSING REPORTS FROM WOLEAI. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN ISLANDS... WOTJE REPORTED 0.40 INCH AND UTIRIK REPORTED ONLY 0.08 OF RAINFALL IN APRIL. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN VERY BRIEF AND FAST MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN RMI. UTIRIK...WOTJE AND OTHER ATOLLS ALONG AND NORTH OF 8N SUCH AS KWAJALEIN/EBEYE...BIKINI...UJAE...RONGELAP...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND MAY RECEIVE BRIEF PASSING SHOWERS...BUT LITTLE ACCUMULATED RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-MAY. FOOD SOURCES ARE REPORTED TO BE DRYING OUT. AT EBEYE...HEALTH ISSUES RELATED TO WATER PROBLEMS HAVE BEEN REPORTED. KWAJALEIN/EBEYE REPORTED ONLY 1.14 INCHES OF RAIN IN APRIL. OTHER ISLANDS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... SOME SHOWERS HAVE MOVED ACROSS THIS AREA RECENTLY BUT RAINFALL HAS BEEN VARIABLE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE RMI. SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS INCLUDE MAJURO...ARNO...MILI...JALUIT...AILINGALAPLAP... MALOELAP AND OTHER SOUTHERN ATOLLS. LOW RAINFALL IS EXPECTED IN THE COMING WEEKS AND WATER RESOURCES WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN THESE AREAS. DUE TO THEIR LARGE POPULATIONS...MAJURO AND EBEYE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR AND REGULATE FRESH WATER RESOURCES. MAJURO HAD ONLY 3.34 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN APRIL. IT HAS BEEN REPORTED THAT DISCARDED CIGARETTES HAVE CAUSED SOME FIRES ON MAJURO. THE MAJURO DUMP HAD A LARGE FIRE RECENTLY AND IS HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO ANOTHER. GRASSLAND FIRES ARE POSSIBLE ON ALL OF THE DRY ISLETS...AND THEY CAN SPREAD RAPIDLY WITH THE BRISK TRADE WINDS. MARIANA ISLANDS... THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS (CNMI)... SAIPAN RECEIVED 0.93 INCHES OF RAIN AT THE AIRPORT AND 1.16 INCHES AT CAPITOL HILL. TINIAN MEASURED A LITTLE MORE WITH 1.78 INCHES. VERY LOW RAINFALL SO FAR IN APRIL. ROTA RECEIVED 1.41 INCHES AT THE AIRPORT BUT LIKELY LESS OVER OTHER PARTS OF THE ISLAND. SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SPOTTY AND BRIEF. RAINFALL HAS BEEN ABNORMALLY LOW OVER THE COMMONWEALTH SINCE JANUARY AND RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BELOW NORMAL OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE TO LATER PART OF MAY. FIRE DANGER WILL BE EXTREME IN THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS. FOR SAIPAN...THE DRAW-DOWN OF FRESH WATER RESOURCES COULD BE A PROBLEM IN THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. GUAM... GUAM AIRPORT RECEIVED ONLY 1.15 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN APRIL. RAINFALL RANGED FROM ONLY 0.50 INCH AT THE NORTHERN WASTEWATER TREATMENT PLANT TO 1.55 INCHES AT THE MERIZO TREATMENT PLANT IN THE SOUTH. VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE COMING WEEKS. THE RISK OF GRASS FIRES WILL INCREASE ACROSS GUAM. IN THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... THE WEATHER HAS BEEN DRY OVER NORTHWESTERN YAP STATE. PATCHY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOPED OVER CHUUK STATE MOVED WEST ACROSS PALAU AND SOUTHERN YAP STATE...PRODUCING 4.5 TO 7 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. SMALLER ISLANDS WITH LIMITED WATER SUPPLIES WILL BE MOST AT RISK IN THE COMING WEEKS SINCE VERY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. PEOPLE SHOULD KEEP ROOF TOPS AND CATCHMENT AREAS CLEAN AND CAREFULLY MANAGE WATER RESOURCES. REPORTS FROM AN EDUCATOR ON WOLEAI ATOLL HAS COMMUNICATED WITH OTHER YAP STATE ATOLLS AND INDICATES THAT "CATCHMENTS ARE FULL!" ON ALL ATOLLS FROM WOLEAI TO SATAWAL AND FROM EAURIPIK TO FAURELEP. HOWEVER...ULITHI AND FAIS ARE VERY DRY. CLIMATE SUMMARY... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE PRODUCED SOME RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA RECENTLY BUT DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE WORSENED...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF 8N TO 10N. THE EL NINO ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER REMAINS IN EFFECT. DESPITE THE LATENESS OF THE EL NINO ADVISORY...THE WEATHER PATTERNS OVER MICRONESIA DURING THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAVE PRODUCED EL NINO-LIKE WEATHER AND IT LOOKS LIKE MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR PARTS OF MICRONESIA...WHICH IS TYPICAL OF A POST-EL NINO DRY PERIOD. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... DEC-MAR DEC-MAR DEC-MAR APR APR APR(%) NORM (%) NORM RMI UTIRIK 5.12 8.65 59 0.08 3.06 3 WOTJE 10.04 10.71 94 0.40 3.51 11 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 14.16 19.00 75 1.13 6.21 18 WSO MAJURO 31.16 35.01 89 3.34 9.63 35 MILI 45.21 36.36 124 2.93 10.45 28 AILINGLAPLAP 27.67 26.60 104 0.72 7.32 10 JALUIT* 22.91 36.53 63 6.84 11.84 58 FSM (EAST TO WEST) KOSRAE (SAWRS) 54.42 66.37 82 23.96 19.52 123 WSO POHNPEI 58.59 53.27 110 11.41 17.75 64 LUKUNOR 35.43 40.88 87 14.30 11.86 121 WSO CHUUK 50.45 37.23 136 6.00 12.22 49 POLOWAT** 11.80 25.36 47 4.74 8.79 54 WOLEAI ATOLL 24.29 31.35 77 3.95 8.43 47 ULITHI*** 19.71 22.14 89 2.03 4.68 43 WSO YAP 33.03 27.91 118 2.90 5.72 51 REPUBLIC OF PALAU WSO PALAU 30.96 42.63 73 6.89 10.56 65 MARIANAS SAIPAN AP 9.12 12.30 74 0.93 2.32 40 TINIAN AP 10.49 14.05 75 1.78 2.71 66 ROTA AP 16.17 19.04 85 1.41 4.66 30 GUAM AP 19.70 18.24 108 1.15 3.58 32 * JALUIT DEC 2018 RAINFALL UNDERESTIMATED DUE TO INSTRUMENT LOCATION ** POLOWAT MISSING FEBRUARY RAINFALL FROM WUTIP *** ULITHI RAINFALL ESTIMATED BASED ON YAP DATA AND SATELLITE DATA PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE REGION. WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...MORE SUNSHINE WITH THE SUN OVERHEAD DURING THIS SEASON...AND PATCHY CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST. THIS WILL CAUSE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER MOST OF THE REGION WHICH WILL FURTHER STRESS WATER RESOURCES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE THROUGH THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. AREAS FROM UTIRIK TO ENEWETAK WILL RECEIVE ONLY A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. PATCHY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AT TIMES SOUTH OF 10N AND NORTH OF MAJURO. AREAS FROM KWAJALEIN/EBEYE TO WOTJE AND MALOELAP COULD RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE NEXT WEEK...AND 2 TO 3 INCH TOTALS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS INCLUDING MAJURO... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AT TIMES OVER MAJURO AND THE SOUTHERN RMI. RAINFALL MAY STILL BE VARIABLE...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NEXT WEEK AND 4 TO 7 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. MAJURO SHOULD RECEIVE HELPFUL SHOWERS AT TIMES. THE WATER SUPPLIES ON MORE POPULATED ISLANDS OF MAJURO AND EBEYE WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRESSED. PEOPLE ON THESE ISLANDS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WATER CONSERVATION GUIDELINES... 1. PEOPLE WITH CATCHMENTS NEED TO CLEAN ROOFS AND GUTTERS, AND CATCHMENTS, BUT DON`T WASTE CATCHMENT WATER 2. CATCHMENT WATER SHOULD BE FOR DRINKING ONLY 3. WELL WATER WILL LIKELY BECOME BRACKISH AND SHOULD ONLY BE USED FOR COOKING AND WASHING 4. BOIL WELL AND CATCHMENT WATER FOR DRINKING 5. SEA LEVELS WILL BE LOW ACROSS THE MARSHALLS UNTIL MAY OR JUNE. THIS MEANS THAT PEOPLE WILL HAVE TO PUMP WATER HARDER TO GET IT TO THE SURFACE. BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVER-PUMP AND DRAW SALT WATER INTO THE FRESH WATER LENS. WHEN WATER IS SCARCE, HEALTH ISSUES SUCH AS PINK EYE AND GASTRO-INTESTINAL PROBLEMS BECOME MORE COMMON AND MORE SERIOUS. DEHYDRATION IS A MAJOR PROBLEM DURING DROUGHT PERIODS. THE MARIANA ISLANDS... GUAM AND THE COMMONWEALTH OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS... DROUGHT WEATHER WILL PERSIST BUT SOME PASSING SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE COMING WEEKS. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL OF A QUARTER INCH TO A HALF INCH IN THE NEXT WEEK...AND A HALF INCH UP TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT TWO WEEKS. THE LOWER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FOR ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN AND ISLANDS FARTHER NORTH. SAIPAN IN PARTICULAR SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR DROUGHT CONDITIONS. GUAM COULD RECEIVE A LITTLE MORE RAINFALL BUT DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR ALL THE MARIANA ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. THE FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE. THE REPUBLIC OF PALAU ALONG WITH YAP...CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES... A SURFACE TROUGH IS BECOMING ACTIVE OVER THIS REGION AND AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER ARE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH MANY AREAS COULD REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY. CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES RECEIVED BENEFICIAL SHOWERS RECENTLY. PALAU HAS RECEIVED ONLY PATCHY SHOWERS IN THE PAST WEEKS...AND MOST OF YAP STATE HAS REMAINED IN A DRY TRADE-WIND FLOW. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF WESTERN MICRONESIA DURING THE NEXT WEEK AND 4 TO 7 INCHES FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. AT WENO AND FANANU OF CHUUK STATE...THE RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE WITH AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES DURING THE NEXT WEEK AND 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. RAINFALL WILL BE ON THE LOWER SIDE FOR FANANU IN THE HALL ISLANDS AND NAMONUITO ATOLL. POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES WILL RECEIVE SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2 WEEKS. HEAVIER RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE NEAR KOSRAE AND SOUTH TOWARD THE EQUATOR. DRIEST CONDITIONS OVER MICRONESIA ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N FROM THE DATE LINE WESTWARD TO 130E. LOOKING FORWARD...RAINFALL AND WATER RESOURCES SHOULD BE MONITORED AND THE REMOTE AND SMALLER ISLANDS OF MICRONESIA WILL BE MOST AT RISK. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... NEXT SCHEDULED ISSUANCE OF THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE THURSDAY 16 MAY 2019 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/ NWS WFO GUAM AT HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/ UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS... HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. ALSO...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH... CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREAS ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5N FROM 130E EASTWARD TO BEYOND THE DATE LINE. THE AREA INCLUDES KAPINGAMARANGI. FOR INFORMATION SEE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTPS://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE AND THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO. ALSO THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES AND NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING...WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 OR EMAILED AT W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) GUARD/SIMPSON/BUKUNT $$ ------------------------------------------------------------------------