000 AXGM70 PGUM 310115 DGTGUM PMZ181-140200- MAJURO- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 1100 AM CHST THU AUG 31 2017 ...FAR NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL ISLANDS GETTING SOME RAINFALL RELIEF BUT STILL DRIER THAN EXPECTED... SYNOPSIS... ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE YEAR. WEAK TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN MICRONESIA THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS...BUT WILL VACILLATE BETWEEN WEAK AND MODERATE INTENSITIES. DURING LATE AUGUST THROUGH SEPTEMBER AND EARLY OCTOBER...PERIODS OF MONSOON WEATHER WITH HEAVY RAINS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCASIONALLY DOMINATE WESTERN MICRONESIA AND COULD PENETRATE INTO CENTRAL MICRONESIA. ONE SUCH EPISODE AFFECTED THE MARIANA ISLANDS RECENTLY. SHOWERS HAVE INCREASED RECENTLY BUT DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AT UTIRIK AND WOTJE. NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MARSHALL ISLANDS...BUT LIKE THE REST OF MICRONESIA...THESE ISLANDS HAVE HAD SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO AVERT DROUGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN THE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) HAS CONTINUED...BUT THE PROCESS WAS ABOUT TWO MONTHS LATER THAN NORMAL. THE WESTWARD MOVING DISTURBANCES ARE NEEDED TO HELP BRING SUMMER RAINS TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. THE EXPERIMENTAL DROUGHT ASSESSMENT OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR SHOWS UTIRIK OF THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS HAS MAINTAINED ITS SHORT-TERM AND LONG-TERM EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT STATUS (DROUGHT LEVEL 4 OF 4). ENEWETAK...AILUK AND OTHER ISLANDS NORTH OF 10N ARE AT THE SAME EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT LEVEL. WOTJE AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN LONG-TERM EXTREME DROUGHT (DROUGHT LEVEL 3 OF 4). THUS WE HAVE ELECTED TO ISSUE ANOTHER DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. KWAJALEIN AND NEARBY ATOLLS REMAIN IN A RATING OF D-NOTHING. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... MARSHALL ISLANDS... FAR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ISLANDS... SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LAST FEW DAYS SHOWED DEEP CONVECTION AND MORE PERSISTENT TRADE-WIND SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. ISLANDS ALONG AND NORTH OF 10N SUCH AS UTIRIK... RONGELAP...BIKINI...AILUK...AND ENEWETAK ATOLLS AND MEJIT ISLAND WILL SEE IMPROVED RAINFALL IN SEPTEMBER. HOWEVER...WOTJE HAS BEEN DRIER THAN EXPECTED AS MOST SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF WOTJE. OTHER ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... SOME PERIODS OF DRY CONDITIONS MAY ALSO AFFECT KWAJALEIN...WOTHO... MALOELAP...UJAE...LIKIEP AND NEIGHBORING ATOLLS BUT FUTURE RAINFALL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO MINIMIZE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... COMPUTER MODELS AND DISCUSSIONS WITH CLIMATE SCIENTISTS INDICATE THAT CURRENT ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST TO THE END OF THE YEAR. CLIMATE MODELS ARE FAVORING A CONTINUATION OF ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. SOME RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... AUG (1-30) AUG AUG % NORMAL NORMAL WOTJE 1.04 5.20 24 UTIRIK 3.79 7.41 54 AILINGALAPLAP 6.20 9.96 62 JALUIT 5.22 10.62 49 MAJURO 13.00 11.05 118 KWAJALEI/EBEYE 6.10 10.06 61 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL JUL % (1-31) NORMAL WOTJE 0.08 4.48 0.99 5.23 1.14 8.86 5.55 124 UTIRIK 0.63 MSG MSG TRACE 1.38 1.60 1.74 36 AILINGALAPLAP 12.75 7.39 7.76 9.82 2.82 9.45 7.91 70 JALUIT 9.94 13.50 11.23 9.58 2.33 5.41 8.56 73 MAJURO 17.65 7.59 13.07 10.36 4.93 13.03 12.52 105 KWAJALEIN/EBEYE 9.00 5.60 1.07 3.44 5.20 10.80 6.91 68 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE SEASONAL MOVEMENT OF THE SUN WILL RANGE FROM DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN LATE AUGUST FOR NORTHERN AREAS OF MICRONESIA TO DIRECTLY OVERHEAD IN MID-SEPTEMBER FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. A MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AND MODERATE THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. EVAPORATION CAUSED BY PERSISTENT TRADE WINDS BLOWING ACROSS THE OCEAN SHOULD ALSO HELP OFFSET AND MODERATE THE HIGHER TEMPERATURES. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... ISLANDS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTERS MODELS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE VARIABLE. RAINFALL FOR AREAS NORTH OF 10 NORTH LATITUDE (ENEWETAK TO UTIRIK) ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE TO THREE INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. RAINFALL SOUTH OF 10 NORTH (KWAJALEIN TO WOTJE) SHOULD BE ONE TO THREE INCHES FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS. MAJURO AND MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS SHOULD RECEIVE TWO TO FOUR INCHES OF RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 10 DAYS. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT INDICATES THAT UTIRIK...ENEWETAK... AILUK...WOTJE...AND MEJIT HAVE OPERATING REVERSE OSMOSIS (RO) SYSTEMS. DESPITE THESE SYSTEMS...LOCAL VEGETATION AND FOOD SOURCES WILL SUFFER FROM THE DROUGHT. LOCAL WELLS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SALTY. THE MARSHALL ISLANDS GOVERNMENT HAS ISSUED GUIDANCE FOR WATER CONSERVATION AND GOOD HYGIENE. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED 14 SEPTEMBER 2017. AT THAT TIME WE WILL RE-ASSESS THE NEED FOR ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATION OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/...NWS WFO GUAM...HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/GUAM/...UNDER MENU ITEM CURRENT CONDITIONS...HYDROLOGY...DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT. THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PEAC/ NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... THE SEVERITY OF CORAL REEF BLEACHING ACROSS THE MARIANA ISLANDS HAS LIKELY BEEN REDUCED BY RECENT MONSOON FLOW...OTHERWISE CORAL REEF BLEACHING ALERT AND WARNING AREAS REMAIN FROM THE PHILIPPINES ACROSS THE MARIANAS. WATCH AREAS EXTEND MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND EAST... INCLUDING CHUUK...POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES AND THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE NOAA/NESDIS WEBSITE AT HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA.PHP ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM ...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES AT MAJURO AND AT WENO CHUUK...THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICES...THE NOAA/NESDIS CORAL REEF WATCH PROGRAM AND RICHARD HEIM AT THE NOAA NATIONAL CENTERS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL INFORMATION. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472- 0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) GUARD/SIMPSON $$