777 AXGM70 PGUM 300621 CCA DGTGUM PMZ181-130300- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU 400 PM CHST THU JAN 30 2014 ...DRY SEASON WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS... SYNOPSIS... ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE PACIFIC OCEAN AND STRONG WINTER-TIME HIGH PRESSURE HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. DRY WEATHER IS ENTRENCHED ALONG AND NORTH OF 9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE FROM 150 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE EASTWARD ACROSS THE DATE LINE. CLIMATE MODELS INDICATE THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW MONTHS...POSSIBLY INTO JUNE. MODELS NOW INDICATE SOME RAIN SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES FOR MAJURO AND ONLY ISOLATED TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHERN ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS IN THE COMING WEEKS. DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR ATOLLS OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS TO THE NORTH OF MAJURO...INCLUDING ENEWETAK...UTIRIK..WOTJE...BIKINI... RONGELAP AND MEJIT. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE FOR MAJURO AND FOR THE ISLANDS BETWEEN MAJURO AND KWAJALEIN. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR NORMAL DRY SEASON TYPE WEATHER...SO THEY SHOULD RECEIVE ADEQUATE RAINFALL IN THE COMING WEEKS. SUMMARY OF IMPACTS... REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO... TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AT TIMES FOR MAJURO IN THE COMING DAYS...BUT RATHER DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED IN THE LONGER RANGE. WATER CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED TO AVOID DEPLETION OF WELLS...RESERVOIRS AND CATCHMENTS. AS OF 29 JANUARY 2014...MAJURO RESERVOIR CONTAINED NEARLY 20 MILLION GALLONS OF WATER...WHICH IS MORE THAN HALF ITS CAPACITY. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO... TRADE-WIND SHOWERS WILL BE SPOTTY AND WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY. CONSERVATION MEASURES WILL BE NEEDED IMMEDIATELY TO AVOID THE DEPLETION OF WELLS AND CATCHMENTS. WELLS SHOULD BE MONITORED FOR EXCESSIVE SALINITY. SOME DAMAGE TO FOOD CROPS IS POSSIBLE ON SMALLER ISLANDS AND ATOLLS WHERE RAINFALL IS SPARSE. THE HEALTH OF FOOD CROPS SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED...AND FOOD ASSISTANCE MAY BE NECESSARY IF DAMAGE TO PLANTS AND FRUITS IS IRREVERSIBLE. WATER CATCHMENTS SHOULD BE MONITORED VERY CLOSELY IN THE COMING WEEKS. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... A NORMAL PATTERN OF TRADE-WIND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED SOUTH OF MAJURO. RAINFALL WILL BE VARIABLE IN THE COMING WEEKS WITH 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL FOR MOST ISLANDS SOUTH OF MAJURO THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CLIMATE SUMMARY... THE ENSO-NEUTRAL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SPRING MONTHS INTO SUMMER. MORE NORMAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY ABOUT APRIL OR MAY...BUT IT COULD BE LONGER FOR THE MORE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS. SOME JANUARY RAINFALL REPORTS IN INCHES ARE AS FOLLOWS... THROUGH JANUARY 29 DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL FOR JAN 29 MARSHALL ISLANDS MAJURO... 8.76 1.15 KWAJALEIN... 3.78 0.03 UTIRIK... 0.56 MINUS 1.84 WOTJE... 0.66 MINUS 1.92 PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK... THE DRY FLOW WITH MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC IS ALSO CAUSING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF MICRONESIA. REPUBLIC OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS... MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT BECAUSE MAJURO WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A CONVERGENCE ZONE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. CATCHMENT EQUIPMENT SHOULD BE PREPARED AND MAINTAINED BECAUSE HEAVIER SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND THAT WILL AFFORD THE OPPORTUNITY FOR PEOPLE TO CATCH RAIN WATER. ATOLLS NORTH OF MAJURO... COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY TO THE NORTH OF 7 TO 9 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE. SOME TRADE-WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 5 TO 10 DAYS...BUT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL VARY FROM ONLY 0.5 INCH UP TO 1.25 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. STRONG CONSERVATION MEASURES ARE STILL APPROPRIATE. ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO... ADEQUATE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR ATOLLS SOUTH OF MAJURO. COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THAT TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES THROUGH THE NEXT 10 DAYS. OTHER IMPACTS... THE JANUARY 27TH 2014 CORAL REEF BLEACHING WATCH AREA IS MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF 5 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE BETWEEN 135 AND 165 DEGREE EAST LONGITUDE. PEOPLE OF THE RMI SHOULD MONITOR THE NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH WEBSITE FOR BLEACHING ALERTS AND WARNINGS AT: HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML (LOWER CASE). NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THE NEXT ISSUANCE OF THE DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT WILL BE FEBRUARY 13 OR SOONER IF NECESSARY. REMEMBER TO STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS...YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AND/OR YOUR LOCAL DISASTER COORDINATING OFFICE FOR THE LATEST WEATHER AND DROUGHT INFORMATION. && RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... NWS WFO GUAM... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GUAM/ /UNDER MENU ITEM CLIMATE...MORE/ PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.SOEST.HAWAII.EDU/MET/ENSO/INDEX2.HTML NOAA CORAL REEF WATCH BLEACHING... HTTP://CORALREEFWATCH.NOAA.GOV/SATELLITE/BAA/INDEX.HTML ACKNOWLEDGMENTS... WE ACKNOWLEDGE OUR PARTNERS AT THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...THE PACIFIC ENSO APPLICATIONS CLIMATE CENTER...INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY...UNIVERSITY OF GUAM...UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII...HONOLULU FORECAST OFFICE...THE WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT MAJURO...AND THE USAID SUBREGIONAL OFFICE MAJURO. QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS MAY BE ADDRESSED TO THE FOLLOWING... WFO TIYAN GUAM 3232 HUENEME RD BARRIGADA GU 96913 PHONE: 671-472-0946 W-GUM.WEBMASTER@NOAA.GOV (LOWER CASE LETTERS) $$ SIMPSON/GUARD